Honest Mistakes: Week Eleven

Rough and indeed tumble on plastic: a sort of cheap Strictly

Matches played reach 11 as Celtic take the tricky task of engaging Kilmarnock on their well-manicured carpet whilst The Rangers host friendly Hearts.

The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.

10/11/24 Kilmarnock

Incident 1

Referee: Nick Walsh

Game Minute: 11th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Wright challenges Idah for a high ball.

Outcome: Free kick to Celtic and YC to Wright following VAR review.

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on field decision: Foul to Celtic; YC to Wright following VAR review

Free kick gets swung into the box , both players jump and Idah catches a stray arm to his face and drops to the floor. Wright always has his eyes on the ball and his arms have to move somewhere when jumping for the ball to gain elevation. Due to the facial contact, I can see why the referee goes with caution for a reckless challenge, but this contact is purely accidental and I would have been incredibly surprised if a red card was brandished here either in real-time or after review.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: Nick Walsh

Game Minute: 80th

Score At Time: 0-2

Incident: Hatate challenges Donnelly.

Outcome: Free kick to Kilmarnock and YC to Hatate following VAR review.

Evidence: Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 10/11/2024 - BBC iPlayer

At 12:01

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on-field decision: Foul to Kilmarnock; YC to Hatate following VAR review

Hatate gets caught stretching for the ball and catches Donnelly mid-shin. In real time I suspected a caution would be issued as the contact looked minimal from the attempted tackle. However, upon review, you can see the Celtic man’s studs just catch his opponent on the shin. For me, this is a borderline red card offence for endangering an opponent’s safety. I suspect the one consideration that prevents an on-field review from being recommended to the referee is that at the last second, Hatate starts to pull his leg back inwards and this reduces the force/momentum of the impact so that the studs graze the leg rather than plant into his leg.

A subjective call and what I sometimes refer to as an ‘orange’ card kind of tackle! On balance, I can just about support the caution outcome.

Verdict: CORRECT decision (just)

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 3

Referee: Nick Walsh

Game Minute: 83rd

Score At Time: 0-2

Incident: Donnelly challenges Schmeichel.

Outcome: Free kick to Celtic and YC to Donnelly following VAR review.

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on-field decision: Foul to Celtic; YC to Donnelly

And element of frustration I suspect here from Donnelly as he attempts to chase a back pass down and regain possession of the ball. Schmeichel clears the ball but Donnelly continues his run and as he makes contact with the Celtic keeper he body-checks him and slightly raises his arm. I feel this contact is around the chest area rather than the face that Schmeichel suggests as he swings his hand back.

A petulant, frustrated kind of challenge worthy of a yellow card but not enough in it for me to be considered serious foul play/sending off offence.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 4

Referee: Nick Walsh

Game Minute: 88^th

Score At Time: 0-2

Incident: Ralston and Murray challenge for a high ball.

Outcome: Free kick to Celtic.

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on-field decision: Foul to Celtic

Ralston drops to the ground after a challenge for the ball with Murray claiming a boot to the face. Murray has eyes on the ball and Ralston comes in on his blind side. Murray is also slightly off-balance as he attempts to play the ball due to contact from Ralston.

There doesn’t appear to be any contact at all on Ralston despite him holding his face for a couple of seconds before making a swift and full recovery.

Due to the proximity of the raised foot adjacent to Ralston's face as he slightly stoops to head the ball, I can understand why a foul was the easy and correct decision. But I don’t see anything in this specific incident that is close to warranting a red card offence for serious foul play. Maybe a yellow card for a reckless tackle could also have been a justifiable outcome here but on balance, I’m comfortable with just the Celtic free-kick decision.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.

The friendship Derby at Ibrox passed off peacefully whilst it remains a mystery how the BBC and SPFL edit out contentious decisions from their highlight’s packages, sometimes.

By the way, under Willie Collum’s leadership, the error rate for those incidents referred to here has dropped to 15% or down from 17% under Crawford Allan last season, the first full one with VAR. Early days and small samples of course.

This leaves the overall position thus:

Celtic have 0.46 MORE expected points, and The Rangers also have 0.46 MORE due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. So, no “advantage” for either team.

Celtic (and Aberdeen) lead by nine points after eleven matches.