Honest Mistakes, Week 7
Week 7 of the SPFL Premier Division saw Celtic lose their first points of the season and the gap at the top reduced to 2 points.
To what extent did contentious calls play a part?
The impact of calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
17/09/22 The Rangers vs Dundee United
Incident 1
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 47th
Incident Watt goes down in the box Outcome No decision Evidence (3) Rangers 2-1 Dundee United | The Gers bounce back as Antonio Colak nets twice | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:40
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Watt goes down in the box
Initial on field decision: No foul given
Barisic and Watts have a coming together just inside the Rangers box. The Dundee United goes to ground.
Watched this several times over and my feeling in real time & slow motion is the same. No foul committed here. There is upper body contact between the two players shoulder to shoulder. As soon as the contact is made, Watts drops to the fall, maybe trying to convince the referee a foul has been committed, when there has not been.
Verdict: Correct decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 89th
Incident McGrath goes down in the box Outcome No decision Evidence https://twitter.com/Zeshankenzo/status/1571184962245722113?s=20&t=IRRS8BifynCDQFw9aPtb6g
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict McGrath goes down in the box
Initial on field decision: No foul given
McGrath attempts to get past Tillman who makes an attempt to challenge and McGrath goes to ground.
This is not as clear cut as the first penalty decision. At full speed it is very difficult to determine if Tillman makes contact with either player or ball. The referee is in a credible position to make the decision with an unobstructed view. Tillman appears to step across McGrath with his right foot. On the first replay presented, I would say that he actually impedes McGrath and makes no contact with the ball. The second replay is inconclusive. Although I do not feel this is a clear and obvious error by the referee due to the Tillman’s body shape between ref & ball, if the referee sees the angle presented to him by the first replay then a penalty kick should have been awarded.
Verdict: Incorrect decision. Foul and penalty kick to Dundee Utd, the expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
+0.75 xPts to TRFC
18/09/22 St Mirren vs Celtic
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 53rd
Incident Ayunga scores for St Mirren Outcome Goal to St Mirren Evidence (3) St. Mirren 2-0 Celtic | Celtic Suffer First League Loss In One Year | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:01
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ayunga scores for St.Mirren
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded
Ayunga scores headed goal from inside 6-yard box but it is evident first viewing that this goal should have been ruled out for a clear two-handed push in the back of the Celtic player who is attempting to head ball home.
Referee’s view is obstructed by players in the box it appears, if he has an unsighted view of the challenge, he’s surely disallowing the goal.
Verdict: Incorrect decision. Expected outcome, defensive free kick awarded.
Expected Points
Outcome
-0.4 xPts Celtic
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Two calls wrong and with Dundee United already at the bottom of the league, a potential levelling last minute penalty denied at Ibrox a sickening blow for them (Parklife!).
Incredibly, this incident did not even make the SPFL highlights reel.
Similarly, Celtic’s awful performance against a solid St Mirren was not helped by the crucial second goal being incorrectly awarded.
Interestingly, the referees in both incidents had clear views.
With two weeks until the next domestic fixture, were the airwaves filled with indignation at the standard of refereeing given such impactful wrong calls at both ends of the table?
Eh, no.
Changes to the Expected Points position, then.
The Rangers have 0.76 MORE points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 0.35 LESS.
An “expected swing” of 1.11 points.
Celtic lead by 2 points after 7 matches.