Honest Mistakes - Week 29.5
A quick one to cover the last fixture before the international break as Celtic hosted St Johnstone whilst The Rangers forgot their trunks when visiting tropical Dundee.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL. A framework for assessing red card impacts is here.
16/03/24 Celtic vs St Johnstone
Incident 1
Referee Euan Anderson Game Minute 26th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Maeda shot blocked by Robinson Outcome No decision following VAR review Evidence Celtic 3-1 St Johnstone | Bhoys Regain Top Spot With Strong Victory | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 0:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on-field decision: No decision following VAR review for possible handball penalty decision
Following a bit of a scramble Maeda attempts to fire home from 3 yards out. The St Johnstone defender goes to block the goal-bound effort and the ball cannons against the top of his arm, as he slightly turns his body away.
Given the incredibly close proximity, zero reaction time and the fact that his arm isn’t unnaturally outstretched, I would have been very surprised Indeed if VAR had recommended an on-field review to the referee. Accidental contact is expected, and no foul is committed.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Euan Anderson Game Minute 45th Score At Time 1-0
Incident Sidebeh fouls Welsh Outcome Foul to Celtic and YC to Sidebeh Evidence Evidence provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Foul to Celtic and Sidibeh cautioned for reckless challenge.
Sidibeh & Welsh compete for the same space as they wait for a high ball to drop into their proximity. Sidibeh glances back to see where Welsh is and as he does so steps back and also raises his left arm. This arm glances on the top of Welsh's head and he goes down after feeling the contact.
Players will often put their arms out when tussling for space and, on balance, I don’t believe this contact merited a red card for serious foul play. There appears to be no real intent or force displayed by Sidibeh in this passage of play.
If you raise your hands/arms as a player, then of course you are running the risk of the referee making a possible yellow/card decision if they see a foul. In this instance, I’m comfortable that this action is reckless in nature and therefore correctly penalised as a caution offence.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
When The Rangers are feeling up to visiting Dundee again expect a full programme of reviews as water polo is a vicious game!
No changes then. A reminder that the neutral referee has called eight out of 40 big decisions as being incorrect – this 20 percent error rate does represent an improvement for the SFA referees. With Crawford Allan signalling his intention to errr, “resign”, at the end of the season, maybe that’s not how others see it.
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.53 MORE points and Celtic 0.83 less than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 1.36 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
Celtic lead by one point after 30 matches but The Rangers have one water polo match in hand.