Honest Mistakes - Week 27
Week twenty-seven of the fixtures in the SPFL with no let-up in the array of questionable decisions.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
24/02/24 The Rangers vs Hearts
Incident 1
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 48th Score At Time 3-0
Incident Dessers scores for TRFC Outcome Goal to TRFC following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 24/02/2024
At 8:32
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal awarded after VAR review
Dessers looks to control a cross, where there is a question of a possible accidental handball before a couple of deflections/blocks see the ball arrive back at his feet, where he scores from close range.
My gut feeling is that there is an initial handball, purely accidental, as the ball hits a combination of his stomach, knee & possibly left arm, all at the same time. His body shape is narrow, and I would be comfortable to see this kind of accidental contact allowed.
However, as Dessers is also the goal scorer, there is the additional consideration of Law 12 (Fouls & Misconduct) that states even if it is accidental handball, if the player scores a. directly from the hand/arm or b. immediately after the ball has touched their hand/arm even if accidental – then a handball offence has occurred.
I suspect it is the interpretation of clause b. that, correctly, results in the goal being allowed to stand. Crucially, after it hit his arm, he didn’t score immediately.
If he had scored from a shot, straight after it touches his arm then I would have expected the goal to be disallowed. But here we see 2/3 Hearts defenders make contact with the ball in quick succession attempting to block the ball before it comes back to him, and he then strikes the ball home.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
25/02/24 Motherwell vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 27th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Vale goes down in the box Outcome No decision following VAR penalty review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: Motherwell v Celtic
At 6:52
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on-field decision: No foul following Var review
Straight forward call here. Johnston looks to fairly shoulder barge Vale and the Motherwell player, anticipating contact starts to fall forward before the contact arrives. No foul was committed here.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 35th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Furuhashi goes down in the box Outcome No decision following VAR penalty review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: Motherwell v Celtic
At 8:15
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on-field decision: No foul following VAR review
Furuhashi jumps up with Motherwell defender to challenge for a header, there does not appear to be any untoward contact from the defender during this initial contest.
Furuhashi gets straight back up, to then immediately feel the challenge of the second defender. The defender's arm comes out and makes minimal contact with the Celtic man, who then drops to the floor a second time. For me, any contact made here is acceptable and does not justify how easily Furuhashi goes to the ground.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 69th Score At Time 1-1
Incident Casey blocks Yang’s shot Outcome No decision Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: Motherwell v Celtic
At 15:38
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on-field decision: No foul committed
Casey closes the shot from the Celtic man and has the shot fired at him from very close range. I would say that it does hit the right hand of Casey, but his body is in a natural position to block the shot, his arm is not extended, but rather in close to the body.
Given the proximity and lack of reaction time available to the defender, I’m happy that no handball offence has been committed here.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 4
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 79th Score At Time 1-1
Incident Idah fouled on the edge of the box Outcome Foul to Celtic and YC for Butcher following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: Motherwell v Celtic
At 17:12
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Foul to Celtic and Butcher shown a yellow card. After VAR review for a possible red card upgrade, on field decision is confirmed and the yellow card stands.
Idah rolls his marker just outside the box and before he can get any sort of shot off, Butcher holds onto Idah. The foul is correctly given and Butcher is shown a yellow card for ‘stopping a promising attack’.
Given the proximity to the goal, VAR feels there is a possibility that the referee should also review if this is the denial of an obvious goal-scoring opportunity from outside the box (which would be punishable as a free kick and the player sent off).
When distinguishing between what constitutes a SPA (stopping promising attack) or DOGSO (denial of obvious goalscoring opportunity) several variable factors should be considered by the referee.
These are distance from goal, general direction of play, number of defenders and player control/likelihood to regain control.
Given that Idah is outside of the box with two other defenders in relatively close proximity and the goalkeeper was still inside his 6-yard box expecting a shot from a distance, I agree with the on-field referee's ‘gut’ decision to stick with the yellow card decision.
Although meeting a couple of triggers (direction of play, very central and distance from goal 20 yards out), for me it doesn’t quite feel to me like the denial of an obvious goal-scoring opportunity has occurred here.
A subjective decision certainly, hence why VAR recommended the review to allow the referee a further opportunity to see the incident again.
Verdict: CORRECT
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
All calls are verified as correct this week again – maybe they are all improving?
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.53 MORE points and Celtic 0.29 less than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 0.82 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
The Rangers lead by two points after 27 matches.