Honest Mistakes - Week 27
This covers the decisions from Glasgow clubs’ tussles with those from Dundee. This brings us up to date with game week 27.
All that week’s contentious decisions were non decisions and generated acres of virtual news print. You’ll see!
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
BACKGROUND - I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
20/02/22 Dundee Utd vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Bobby Madden Game Minute
Incident Ball hits Graham in the box Outcome No decision Evidence Dundee United 1-1 Rangers | Aribo Scores late as Points are Shared | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ball hits Graham inside the penalty area.
Initial on field decision: No foul
From a fellow Dundee Utd defender, the ball is cleared and hits the left arm of Graham. Referee deems this accidental and dose not award the penalty.
Clearly the ball hits the arm, but as we know by now, having analysed previous ‘handball incidents’, under current laws of game, accidental handball does not constitute a foul, unless certain criteria are met:
“Law 12 - it is only a handball offence if the player touches the ball with their hand/arm when it has made their body unnaturally bigger. A player is considered to have made their body unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player’s body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised.”
I feel the referee made the correct non-decision call as the players arm was pointing downwards, in what I believe was a natural position as part of his natural movement. The player actually attempts to step away from the flight of the ball at the last moment, but it hits his trailing arm.
Verdict: Correct decision to not award the penalty.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Bobby Madden Game Minute 39th
Incident Mulgrew challenge on Arfield Outcome No decision Evidence https://twitter.com/ATGNSC/status/1495712457662386182?s=20&t=IlzvH90aHU3N7IbiGXcPfg
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Mulgrew challenge on Arfield
Initial on field decision: No foul
Initial disclaimer on this incident: the only footage available is a heavily slowed down clip of a 2 second passage of play. I do like to see any incident in real time, as slowed down footage often makes incidents more exaggerated than what the naked human eye would see.
With that in mind we are seeing Mulgrew’s leg fully extended as he slides to make a tackle on Arfield. He misses the ball completely and appears to catch the Rangers player at the top of the foot/ankle joint.
This is clearly a foul that is at the very least reckless in nature and comfortably meets the criteria of a yellow card offence. There is a possibility that it could even be deemed a sending off offence, for showing excessive force and endangers the safety of the opponent.
I would give the benefit of the doubt to Mulgrew in saying he looks only have eyes on the ball. That coupled with the fact that he is coming in along the ground with his leg extended horizontally, as opposed to coming in ‘over the top of the ball’, I believe a foul and a yellow card offence.
Verdict: Incorrect Decision. Foul and caution to Mulgrew expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Bobby Madden Game Minute 59th
Incident Sakala goes for a rebound from a corner Outcome No decision Evidence Dundee United 1-1 Rangers | Aribo Scores late as Points are Shared | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Sakala goes for a rebound from a corner
Initial on field decision: No foul
As Sakala goes to shoot at goal from close range, the Dundee Utd defender clearly pulls the forwards shirt back in attempt to knock the player off balance as he shoots.
This is a clear foul and I suspect is not seen by the referee due to how congested the penalty box.
If the referee sees this shirt pull, he’s giving the penalty all day long.
Verdict: Incorrect Decision. Penalty kick awarded is the expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC -0.55 xPts
Explainer: had TRFC scored in the 59th minute to equalise, the goal would be worth 0.7 xPts. However, as the award would have been a penalty, and the chances of scoring a penalty are always 79%, we multiply the two together to get the xPts in this instance.
Incident 3
Referee Bobby Madden Game Minute 90th
Incident Jack challenge on Levitt Outcome No decision Evidence Dundee United 1-1 Rangers | Aribo Scores late as Points are Shared | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Jack challenge on Levitt
Initial on field decision: Foul given but no card shown.
This clearly a foul in the last seconds of the game but the timing of the challenge within the amount of time left to play, should not impact on how the challenge is punished.
Jack has eyes for the ball but gets there too late and catches Levitt on the shin.
Any shin high challenge has to be surely be under scrutiny as a sending off offence, as it possibly meets the criteria of a challenge with excessive force that endangers the safety of the opponent.
That being said, in Jacks defence when you watch the incident at full speed, he is attempting to ‘side foot challenge’ for the ball as opposed to commit with leg fully extended/studs showing. The ball is well off the ground so any challenge naturally has to be higher. That coupled with the fact that Jack actually starts to pull his leg back when he realises at the last moment, to reduce the excessive force of the challenge. I feel in real time, I would have shown the player a yellow card for a reckless challenge only.
This is a perfect example of what I would describe as ‘trial by slow motion camera’. If you simply freeze frame the moment of contact, it is likely that everyone would
be calling for a red card, shin high challenge.
But for the reasons stated above, at real time speed, with bounce of ball and Jacks last minute reduction in momentum, yellow card should have sufficed.
Verdict: Incorrect decision. Foul and caution for reckless challenge is the expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
20/02/22 Celtic v Dundee
Incident 1
Referee Gavin Duncan Game Minute 41st
Incident Giakoumakis goes down in box under challenge from Daley-Campbell Outcome No decision Evidence Celtic 3-2 Dundee | Giakoumakis Hat-Trick Seals Dramatic Win for Celtic | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Giakoumakis goes down under the challenge from Daley-Campbell.
Initial on field decision: No foul
This is an interesting incident as its one of those cases where my initial gut instinct is actually over ruled when watching back several times over.
My first thought was no foul. Daley-Campbell does what most good defenders do, they sense the danger and simply step into the space that the attacker wants to occupy. They then rely on their physicality to stop the attacker from getting their preferred free run at the impending header/shot.
However, when watching this incident back a few times, I actually come to the opinion that Daley-Campbell oversteps the mark. He glances up to see where Giakoumakis is and then steps forward. But in doing so he also deliberately raises his shoulder and in doing so, catches the Celtic player around the neck/lower head area. I feel this over steps the boundaries of simply ‘occupying the space’ and should have actually resulted in a penalty kick and a yellow card for a ‘reckless challenge’.
Verdict: Incorrect decision. Foul, penalty kick and caution the expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.32 xPts
Explainer: Celtic were 2-1 up at the time (39th minute) and given the time and game state were already on 2.3 xPts. An additional goal at that point, therefore. adds relatively fewer xPts (0.4). We then multiply by the chance of scoring the penalty (0.79).
Incident 2
Referee Gavin Duncan Game Minute 90th
Incident Jota wins a loose ball and clears Outcome No decision Evidence Celtic 3-2 Dundee | Giakoumakis Hat-Trick Seals Dramatic Win for Celtic | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Jota wins a loose ball and clears the ball
Initial on field decision: No foul
As Jota clears the ball in the last few seconds of the game, Dundee appeal for a handball and penalty kick.
Without any slow-motion replays of this incident, I watched the one real time angle several times over and feel it is pretty inconclusive.
It appears that Jota goes to jump for the header behind the Dundee player. Jota’s opponent misses the ball and then the ball possibly hits Jota’s arm as he is already in mid-air jumping for the header. His arms don’t appear to be in an unnatural position as part of this movement and I’m comfortable no error has been committed in not awarded the penalty for a hand ball offence.
Verdict: Correct decision. No foul.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
A bad week for the MIBs this one, with only 2 out of 6 big calls deemed correct on review. Must do better!
There was huge debate and hours of (mainly state) media howling on the back of these games, but in reality, both Celtic and The Rangers suffered in one instance each. I am sure sociologists have a phrase for this phenomenon. Indeed, the Germans probably have a single word!
Expected Points Table
The Expected Points table is therefore unchanged following these matches:
At the end of week 27, based on xPts, Celtic have 3.44 less points than expected due to Honest Mistakes and The Rangers have 1 more point than expected.
That is a 4.44 xPts swing.
Celtic were 3 points ahead in the league table after this set of fixtures.