Honest Mistakes: Week 26

As the season's end moves into view, so the pressure on the officials ramps up

Week 26 saw the Champions at home to Dundee United whilst The Rangers travelled to long-time buddies fierce rivals Heart of Midlothian.

The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.

15/02/25 Celtic vs Dundee Utd

Incident 1

Referee: Nick Walsh

Game Minute: 85th

Score At Time: 2-0

Incident: Idah scores for Celtic

Outcome: Goal to Celtic following VAR review of the APP.

Evidence: Celtic 3-0 Dundee United | Idah Scores In Third Consecutive SPFL Game 🔥| William Hill Premiership

At 3:25

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Idah scores with a strike on the 18 yd box but Dundee Utd are asking for a foul on their defender on the left-hand side of the box in the build-up.

For me, clearly no foul. The defender simply has his back to his marker and sticks his backside out before dropping to the floor as soon as the slightest contact is felt. There is no attempt to make any challenge at this point by the Celtic player - just normal acceptable contact.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

16/02/25 Heart of Midlothian vs The Rangers

Incident 1

Referee: John Beaton

Game Minute: 18th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Hagi fouls Wilson but advantage is played.

Outcome: Hagi is then shown a YC.

Evidence: https://x.com/ScotlandSky/status/1891100851051110528

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Hagi clearly commits a reckless foul on Wilson and the ref plays a good advantage before coming back to penalise the tackle with a caution. Slight consideration of if this tackle meets the ‘excessive force’ threshold of a sending-off offence as it’s Hagi’s studs that just catch the top of the opponent’s foot.

On balance, I feel the ref got this right with the yellow card call. Hagi is clearly trying to play the ball and he is not at full stretch/maximum force as he attempts to make contact with the ball.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: John Beaton

Game Minute: 64th

Score At Time: 1-1

Incident: Nsiala and Wilson challenge for a highball

Outcome: No decision

Evidence: Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 16/02/2025 - BBC iPlayer
At 11:04

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

As a cross is played over, Nsiala and Wilson look to get to the ball with Wilson just in front of his marker. Nsiala appears to raise his arms momentarily and ease Wilson off his feet and the ball is then cleared.

In real-time, I didn’t feel this met the threshold to award a penalty as the defender has the right not to make it easy for Wilson.

The slow-motion clip makes the movement of the hands look slightly more exaggerated and I could understand why a foul is being considered. However the arms don’t fully extend as a ‘shove’ they are part of Nsiala's overall forward movement and, on balance, I don’t feel a penalty kick should have been the expected outcome for this kind of contact.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.

The games are running out and the decisions continue to largely be correct even as the end of season denouement approaches.

This leaves the overall position thus:

Celtic have 0.87 MORE expected points, and The Rangers also have 0.35 MORE due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. So, Celtic’s expected advantage is 0.52 xPts.

Celtic lead by 13 points after 26 games.