Honest Mistakes - Week 26
A topsy-turvy weekend saw new leaders as plucky newcomers The Rangers hit the top of the league.
This takes us up to date with all the SPFL Premiership matches.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
17/02/24 Celtic vs Kilmarnock
Incident 1
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 37th Score At Time 1-0
Incident Welsh challenges for a cross in the box Outcome No decision following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 17/02/2024
At 21:22
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision following VAR review
A cross is driven in low and Welsh and Watkins of Kilmarnock challenge with Watkins dropping to the floor claiming a foul. Watkins appears to run in front of Welsh just as the Celtic man stretches to clear the ball. In real-time, I suspected Welsh played the ball just before contacting the forward.
The first slow-motion replay appears to show Welsh’s right foot looking like it plays the ball as Watkins arrives and 2nd angle offered is inconclusive as we can’t see Welsh’s foot through the body of Watkins.
It is a tough call and I’m not 100% certain but my gut says that Welsh just made contact with the ball first and so happy to back the on-field decision:
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 90th Score At Time 1-0
Incident Watson scores for Kilmarnock Outcome Goal to Kilmarnock following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 17/02/2024
At 24:37
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Kilmarnock after VAR review
Watson gets on the end of a cross delivered from the left-hand side and puts the ball into the back of the net.
There is a question asked about a potential foul by Watson on the Celtic man marking him as the cross comes over.
For me, it appears that the Celtic man loses his man and ends up under the ball and in front of Watson. Watson’s arms do appear to come out slightly, but I do not believe there is a clear push or any impact on the Celtic man, who appears to misjudge the flight of the ball and doesn’t make any attempt to jump or challenge for the ball.
On balance, I’m satisfied no foul was committed here.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
18/02/24 St Johnstone vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Matthew McDermid Game Minute 79th Score At Time 0-1
Incident Sterling and Considine challenge for the ball in the box Outcome No decision changed to penalty to TRFC on VAR review Evidence St Johnstone 0-3 Rangers | 2 Tavernier Penalties Put Rangers Top Of The Table! | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 2:10
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No initial decision, but penalty was awarded to Rangers after VAR review.
Sterling runs into the St Johnstone box after winning the ball back high up the pitch. The covering defender slides in around the same time as Sterling stretches for the ball and initially the referee does not have a clear enough view of the incident to be confident a foul has been committed.
After watching the replays I feel VAR was correct to intervene and recommend an on-field review. It appears that Considine’s right foot does not make any contact with the ball but instead catches the left boot of Sterling who falls to the floor.
On balance, I find the decision to award the penalty, the right one.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Matthew McDermid Game Minute 90th Score At Time 0-2
Incident Lawrence shot hits a defender in the box Outcome No decision changed to penalty to TRFC on VAR review Evidence St Johnstone 0-3 Rangers | 2 Tavernier Penalties Put Rangers Top Of The Table! | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 3:34
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict No initial decision, but penalty awarded to Rangers after VAR review.
Lawrence hits a shot that hits a crowd of players. In particular there is a St Johnstone player who jumps and spins, so his back is facing the ball and the ball then strikes him.
In real time it looks like the referee indicates no foul as the ball appears to have struck the player's back. On review, you can see that the ball does strike the extended right arm of the St Johnstone player.
Even though the St Johnstone player does know too much about where the ball is as his back is turned, I can see why this is deemed to be a handball offence. Only the defender will know why he decides to adopt the unconventional tackle style of spinning around in a star-like motion, rather than just face the ball front on. In doing so he, creates an unnaturally large body position, with arms extended that can’t be justified as normal movement/positioning relating to this particular incident.
On this basis, the right decision is reached.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
All calls are verified as correct this week. It should be noted that the SFA referees announced that an “Independent” review of VAR calls had shown only 13 of 785 VAR reviews resulted in incorrect decisions. A 98.3 percent success rate!
Huzzah! Here’s to marking your homework.
You may recall that in the first season of the Yorkshire Whistler, despite showing empathy with all the referees, he found 32 percent of the reviews resulted in a change to the original decision.
Credit where it is due. This season only eight out of 40 reviewed calls have been deemed incorrect – a 20 percent error rate. Improvement though.
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.53 MORE points and Celtic 0.29 less than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 0.82 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
The Rangers lead by two points after 26 matches.