Honest Mistakes Week 17 - Frankly, Mr Clancy
A bit of catching up to do on the ol’ big call analysis. This brings us up to date following Celtic’s loss in Kilmarnock and The Rangers win over Dundee.
Also please note following the incorrect assignment of the home team impact rather than the away team impact on the red card Goldson did not get at Aberdeen, The Rangers xPts impact for the season has been revised down to -0.25 overall.
On that point, a reminder that as per the link below, the assessment of impact of red cards is a very blunt instrument. It does not cater for game state (i.e. minute of game and score at the time) which the penalty impacts do. Not ideal and if some analytics whiz can knock out a better model I will happily go back and recalculate. But for now, you’ll “win” some and “lose” some.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
03/12/23 St Johnstone vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 40th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Jaiyesimi scores for St Johnstone Outcome No decision Evidence (1) St Johnstone 1-3 Celtic | O'Riley Hits Screamer In Bhoys Comeback Victory | cinch Premiership - YouTube https://x.com/Zeshankenzo/status/1731402500459114850?s=20At 1:10
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Jaiyesimi scores from a corner
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to St Johnstone.
A real melee with numerous bodies trying to get contact on the ball following a corner delivered into the box. There appears to be a lot of physical contact as players compete for the space to win the ball.
Hart does appear to be slightly blocked off as he jumps to fist the ball, but this block comes from his own player who is jostling with a St Johnstone player as well.
Although it looks scrappy, having watched the footage back several times over, I can’t see any level of contact here that I feels constitutes a clear unfair advantage being gained or any foul committed.
There is also a different clip that highlights a potential handball consideration to look at as well.
In the melee, it does appear as if the ball catches the right arm of Jaiyesimi’s teammate, purely accidentally and in a natural position, but still hits his arm nevertheless.
Law 12 is clear around scoring from an accidental handball:
it is an offence if a player scores in the opponents’ goal:
• directly from their hand/arm, even if accidental, including by the goalkeeper
• immediately after the ball has touched their hand/arm, even if accidental
If the first St Johnstone player had scored himself directly from the accidental hand to ball contact, the goal should/would have been chalked off.
However crucially, as the ball subsequently is then poked home by Jaiyesimi and not the direct hand ball contact offender, the goal is correctly allowed to stand.
Verdict: CORRECT decision to award the goal.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
06/12/23 Celtic vs Hibernian
Incident 1
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 48th Score At Time 2-0
Incident Alistair Johnston goes down in the box under challenge from Stevenson Outcome No decision; Penalty to Celtic upon VAR review Evidence Celtic 4-1 Hibernian | Oh Hyeon-gyu Bags a Brace in Dominant Win | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 3:01
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Johnston goes down in the box.
Initial on field decision: No decision, but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Celtic
Challenge comes in from Stevenson on Johnston, and Johnston goes to ground. Contact looks to be on referee’s blindside as Celtic player is stood between referee & where the defender challenges, so can understand why referee might not have given initially, due to not being confident what contact was made. But on review VAR have correctly identified that Johnston’s standing right foot gets trapped by the defender’s right leg before any contact is made on the ball. Once referee is shown this on the pitch side monitor, straight forward decision to make.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
09/12/23 The Rangers vs Dundee
Incident 1
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 26th Score At Time 1-1
Incident Sima challenges for aerial ball from a corner Outcome No decision; upon VAR review penalty to TRFC Evidence Rangers 3-1 Dundee | Rangers Take Comeback Victory Despite Cifuentes Red Card | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 1:50
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ball delivered into the penalty area for a corner.
Initial on field decision: No decision, but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Rangers for a foul on Sima.
Corner is delivered, Sima & a Dundee defender both jump for the ball. Sima claims he is fouled, but in real time hard to see any offence occurred.
Again, VAR shows its benefits here as upon watching the replay, the defender clearly pulls the front of Sima’s shirt significantly enough to disrupt his jumping momentum and impact his ability to head the ball. Again, there is no way the referee would see this pull from his angle, so VAR recommends the on-field review, and the penalty is duly awarded.
(See below for an extended view on similar incidents)
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 42nd Score At Time 3-1
Incident Cantwell scores for TRFC Outcome Foul awarded to Dundee Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 09/12/2023
At 22:02
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Cantwell scores for Rangers
Initial on field decision: Goal disallowed as a foul is awarded to Dundee in the build up
Cantwell appears to score a well worked goal after winning the ball back high up the pitch. However, the referee gives a defensive free kick for a foul by Lundstram on Boateng as the Dundee player releases the ball.
I felt this was a soft looking foul and am not convinced an infringement has occurred. However, the referee clearly blows the whistle for this foul whilst Cantwell is still 25 yards from goal. The defenders have already switched off, even if Cantwell wants to keep playing. Technically, as soon as the referee blows the whistle to stop the play, then the ball is no longer alive. Therefore, there is no ‘goal’ to disallow as such.
In the current topflight, VAR assisted game, match officials are often seen to delay their whistle until the play has come to a natural end, similar to offside decisions where the assistants initially keep their flag down and then raise it after the goal is scored. VAR can then retrospectively review the incident and give the foul/disallow the goal if required.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION, technically no ‘goal’ to review/disallow
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 45th Score At Time 3-1
Incident Cifuentes fouls Boateng Outcome Foul to Dundee; YC to Cifuentes; on VAR review RC to Cifuentes Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 09/12/2023
At 23:40
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Cifuentes fouls Boateng.
Initial on field decision: Free kick to Dundee and initially a yellow card shown to Cifuentes. After VAR review, this is upgraded to a red card for a tackle with excessive force/endangering players safety.
Once of those challenges that looks slightly worse when slowed own. In real time Cifuentes appears to stretch for the ball from an upright position as Bakayoko slides in under his feet to make the block. I personally do not believe there is any intent to catch the Dundee player high in real time and his leg is slightly bent to reduce the impact, as opposed to a fully extended straight leg with studs showing.
However, on the last replay shown to the on-field referee by VAR, you do see the Rangers player’s studs go into the Dundee players leg, just below the knee. Not quite a knee-high tackle, given the Dundee player is stretching across the floor rather than stood upright.
One of those renowned ‘orange’ card tackles where it feels slightly more than a yellow card but not quite a sending off in its own right.
However, under the laws of the game, this challenge could certainly be classified as a tackle that endangers opponents’ safety. On this basis, satisfied to support the upgraded red card awarded.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 4
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 61st Score At Time 3-1
Incident Kerr fouled by Sterling Outcome Foul to Dundee outside the box Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 09/12/2023
At 24:35
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Kerr fouled by Sterling
Initial on field decision: Free kick awarded to Dundee outside the box. No VAR review recommended.
Clear foul committed here but a real question mark about whether a penalty should have been awarded. The Rangers player who commits the foul clearly slides into the box from his momentum to make the tackle. At the same time Kerr is running just outside and parallel to the 18-yard box.
Having scrutinised the replay available frame by frame, I believe that by the tightest of margins, Kerr’s body is just outside the box as the contact is made by the Rangers player.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
10/12/23 Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee David Munro Game Minute 37th Score At Time 0-1
Incident Johnston blocks a Ndaba shot at goal Outcome No decision Evidence Kilmarnock 2-1 Celtic | Kennedy Goal Ends Bhoys Unbeaten Streak | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 1:45
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Johnston blocks Ndaba’s shot on the line
Initial on field decision: No decision.
From an initial Hart parry, the ball lands at the feet of the Kilmarnock man who seems certain to score from six yards out. But he doesn’t account for the off-balance last ditch, roly poly antics of Johnston who somehow miraculously blocks the shot mid roll!
Having watched the footage back several times to some amusement, I cannot fathom which part of his body the ball actually strikes, and I suspect Johnston isn’t sure himself. Certainly, there are no obviously extended arms to review here, and I am pretty confident no hand ball offence occurred.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee David Munro Game Minute 90th Score At Time 2-1
Incident Yang and Findlay clash heads Outcome No decision Evidence Video provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Yang & Friday collide
Initial on field decision: No decision
Ball bounces just outside Kilmarnock box, both players jump to win the ball off the ground. In real time I felt the Celtic player just got to the ball a split second before the Kilmarnock defender.
Watching the replay footage, this suspicion is confirmed. We see Yang glance the ball of his head before Friday’s right shoulder catches him on the side of the head. A genuine attempt to play the ball, but a free kick punishable by a yellow card for a reckless tackle in my opinion.
VAR not expected to get involved here on the basis it is not a potential penalty or red card offence.
Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION – freekick and caution for reckless tackle expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
It is good to see that we’ve finally got the Yorkshire Whistler to enjoy some Scottish football as Alistair Johnston’s Charlie Chaplin-esque defending causes mirth!
And it seems Kevin Clancy got all the big calls right at Ibrox despite what many feel.
The pulling and pushing in the box is certainly a hot topic. I asked the YW what the difference was between the pull on Sima versus Dundee (penalty) and the pull on Oh at Ross County (no penalty). Here is what he said:
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Evening Alan,
Firstly, let me recognise that with these kinds of incidents, there was always be an element of subjectivity/personal opinion as to what should be penalised and what ‘contact’ should be let go.
When comparing the two specific clips you have mentioned with this query, you could at first glance easily label them ‘defender on attacker shirt pulls’ and understandably expect them to be dealt with the same level of sanction.
For me there are subtle differences that led me to the conclusion that the Oh challenge fell narrowly short of expecting to see a penalty awarded whereas the Sima one I felt VAR were right to bring the challenge to the referee’s attention.
I sometimes find myself reviewing these clips and find myself having a gut reaction that says, if I were the on-field referee, I wouldn’t penalise certain fouls. But then knowing how VAR operates at this level of the game, a lower threshold needs to be met for a foul to be awarded on reviewed on the monitor if I’m being honest.
In real time, I didn’t expect either to be awarded as a foul.
For me Oh didn’t seem to have his jumping momentum impacted by the shirt pull on him, whereas Sima did on the slow-motion replay appear to have his jumping momentum impeded by the pull.
If I recall, when I reviewed the Oh clip, I mention that as soon as pull is spotted, the player committing this kind of challenge is risking the referee having to make a decision on what he has seen. If Oh’s had been awarded as a penalty, I wouldn’t have necessarily said this outcome would have been incorrect - but ultimately, I felt the decision not to recommend an on field review wasn’t clearly wrong either.
Different shades of subjective grey being applied here Alan, and knowing your passion for black and white, cold hard facts and statistics, I see where your frustrations might stem from!
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Remember, the YW is giving his time free to us and as usual his explanations are thorough, credible, and honest in my opinion.
The fact he probably infuriates all fans of all clubs equally means he is doing a great job!
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.25 less points and Celtic 0.8 less than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 0.55 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
Celtic lead by five points after 17 matches having played a game more.