Honest Mistakes - Week 15
The final round of matches before the dry World Cup in Qatar!
SPFL week 15 saw Celtic host Ross County and St Mirren host The Rangers.
As ever, the Yorkshire Whistler is here to adjudicate on the big calls.
The impact of that call being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
12/11/22 Celtic vs Ross County
Incident 1
Referee David Munro Game Minute 49th
Incident Ball hits O’Riley near the box Outcome Penalty to Ross County Evidence (2) Celtic 2-1 Ross County | Celtic Take 9 Point Lead Into Winter Break | cinch Premiership - YouTube
1:30
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict The ball hits O’Riley near the edge of the box.
Initial on-field decision: Penalty awarded to Ross County
After Celtic fail to clear their lines following a corner, two Celtic players (one of which is O’Riley) contest with a Ross County forward and the ball ultimately ricochets onto the unsuspecting O’Riley and a penalty is awarded for handball.
Two things I’m considering here did the alleged offence happen inside the box & was it actually a handball appeal worthy of a penalty decision?
I believe the referee correctly identifies that the infringement happens just inside the 18-yard box. Even though O'Riley’s feet appear to be outside the box just, his upper body and arm are still either directly on the line (which is deemed to be inside the box) or just inside it, at the point of contact.
More importantly, however, I feel the referee was wrong to award the penalty. He sees the ball hit O’Riley accidentally on the arm and immediately signals for the foul. You can then see him mouth the words “we’ll check it, we’ll check it” to the Celtic players – which makes me think he’s not sure.
I believe the VAR team should have recognised how small the distance is between the ball and the players during the incident, which clearly reduces any reaction time. The first Celtic player mishits the ball slightly, it then hits the Ross County player before ricocheting straight onto O’Riley’s arm. He knows nothing about it and I feel within the context of his body shape and movement for that particular situation, I do not feel he has made any attempt to make his body shape unnaturally bigger.
Accidental contact on the arm? – yes. Punishable offence? – not for me.
Verdict: Incorrect decision to award the penalty, no foul committed.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.8 xPts
Incident 2
Referee David Munro Game Minute 54th
Incident Ralston goes down in the box Outcome No Decision Evidence (2) Celtic 2-1 Ross County | Celtic Take 9 Point Lead Into Winter Break | cinch Premiership - YouTube
2:33
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ralston goes down in the area
Initial on-field decision: No foul committed
After a high ball into the box, Ralston feels contact in his back and throws himself into the air, before claiming a foul has been committed.
I have little sympathy for the Celtic player here. I believe he is trying to buy a penalty here and his exaggerated jump and fall to the ground is not convincing anyone. The Ross County defender has eyes only on the ball. His arms come out very slightly, certainly not enough to constitute a push or infringement of any kind. The referee correctly, in my opinion, waves away the penalty appeal.
Verdict: Correct decision to not award the foul
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
12/11/22 St Mirren vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 2nd
Incident Ayunga goes down in the box Outcome No decision Evidence https://twitter.com/CairtersSMFC/status/1591488540902408193?s=20&t=RghwQ2Zj1ybyKOcvpj-Fag
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ayunga is tackled by Sands
Initial on-field decision:
Sands goes to clear the ball and Ayunga goes to the ground, claiming to be fouled. Having only seen this incident in slowed-down, frame-by-frame analysis, I would suspect in real time this incident looks even less of a foul than the video replay images paint.
Sands has eyes on the ball and is standing in front of Ayunga as he goes to strike the ball. Ayunga has no chance of winning or playing the ball looking at the distance he is from the ball and simply pokes his leg toward Sands, trying to interrupt his clearance. Not all contact translates as a foul and I believe this passage of play, is this kind of incident. For me, no foul was committed.
Verdict: Correct decision not to award the foul.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 84th
Incident Kent goes down in the box Outcome After review penalty to TRFC Evidence (2) St Mirren 1-1 Rangers | Late Tavernier Penalty Rescues Point | cinch Premiership - YouTube
2:48
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Kent goes down in the box
Initial on-field decision: Penalty awarded to Rangers
Kent evades one tackle and cuts inside before another St Mirren defender stretches to make a tackle and Kent is sent tumbling to the floor. The on-field referee initially decides no foul has been committed and actually books Kent for simulation. However, after a VAR review, the penalty is awarded, and the yellow card is rescinded.
For me, this is a positive example of how and why VAR should be implemented. At speed, it is difficult for the referee to be sure of what contact if any is made, and he goes with the initial gut instinct that there was not any contact. However, the replay footage does show that the defender does collide with Kent’s right knee and that a foul has been committed.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the penalty kick
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
For Celtic, the instance of honest mistakes penalising the club incorrectly has increased since the introduction of the VAR processes. Which is mildly amazing.
I’m sure it’ll all settle down and even itself out.
With the contentious use of protocols and procedures leading to Jota’s goal being ruled out, a change to the overall xPts picture for the season:
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 1.08 MORE points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 3.87 LESS.
A swing of 4.95 xPts. This is around the same differential for the WHOLE of last season.
Celtic lead by nine points after 15 matches.