Honest Mistakes - Week 14
This piece takes us up to date with a review of the big calls following Celtic’s match versus Motherwell and The Rangers big trip to close rivals Aberdeen.
There is also a bonus catch up of an incident at Ross County which previously lacked video evidence.
Also please note following an arithmetical error on my part (not unusual). Celtic are 0.8 xPts down not 0.6.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
SPFL Game Week Fourteen
04/11/23 Ross County vs Celtic
Incident 4
Referee David Munro Game Minute 22nd Score At Time 0-0
Incident Oh heads over from a corner Outcome No decision Evidence Video provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict With regards to the Ross County game and the new angle of the defenders contact on Oh as he attempts to head the ball, it now appears there is a shirt pull on Oh as just as he heads the ball. In real time, this happens very quickly, doesn’t appear that obvious and Oh’s momentum does not seem impacted as he jumps to head the ball.
However, my feeling is that the shirt pull lasts long enough and is visible enough from the correct angle, to warrant further scrutiny. I am an advocate of allowing play to continue whenever possible and firmly believe that not all contact between players should be penalised. There will be a difference in opinion and tolerance of which fouls for holding/pulling should be penalised and which should not.
This incident I feel is right on the edge of this threshold. Given the lack of impact on Oh’s ability to head the ball, I can just about justify why it wasn’t deemed worthy of an on-field review, but ultimately whenever players attempt to hold/pull their opponents they are running the risk of the referee penalising this contact.
Overall, I wouldn’t say a clear and obvious error has been made here and comfortable on field review not recommended.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
25/11/23 Celtic vs Motherwell
Incident 1
Referee Steven McLean Game Minute 62nd Score At Time 0-0
Incident Kelly collects a lose pass Outcome No decision Evidence Celtic 1-1 Motherwell | Late Obika Equaliser Gives Steelmen Draw! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
1:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Kelly collects a loose Celtic pass in his box
Initial on field decision: No foul committed
Motherwell keeper collects the ball and misjudges his proximity to edge of the 18-yard box so instinctively releases the ball before using his body to shield the ball and then pick it up again inside the 18-yard box.
This incident seems to happen very quickly, and I have some sympathy for the match officials not being certain what contact happens in & outside the box.
You can certainly see Kelly’s left hand release the ball before his slide exits the penalty area, but his right arm and the ball are tucked in, and it is difficult to confirm if his right hand has released the ball.
On balance I would give the keeper the benefit of the doubt initially as the video is inconclusive, however what should have been easier to identify is the offence punishable by and indirect free kick that occurred. Law 12 Fouls & Misconduct states it is an indirect free kick if the goalkeeper touches the ball with the hand/arm after releasing it & before it has touched another player.
Kelly clears releases and then picks the ball back up in one passage of play which should have been recognised by the match officials.
Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. Indirect free kick the expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Steven McLean Game Minute 64th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Mugabi challenges Oh in the box Outcome Penalty to Celtic; YC to Mugabi Evidence Celtic 1-1 Motherwell | Late Obika Equaliser Gives Steelmen Draw! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
1:22
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Mugabi challenges On inside the penalty area
Initial on field decision: Penalty to Celtic. Mugabi cautioned for the foul.
Mugabi stretches to clear the ball before Oh can tuck it away, but clearly his leg catches the Celtic man’s left leg and a clear foul is committed.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Steven McLean Game Minute 70th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Taylor fouls Spittal Outcome Foul to Motherwell; YC to Taylor Evidence Video provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Taylor fouls Spittal
Initial on field decision: Free kick to Motherwell, caution to Taylor after Var review
Taylor & Spittal both stretch to win the ball, Taylor gets there a fraction late and clearly catches the Motherwell on the top of the foot. Motherwell are asking for a red card, but I feel the correct sanction of a reckless tackle is applied here.
Taylor’s foot, although missing the ball, isn’t particularly high and he contacts the opponent as his foot and studs are connecting with the ground, in a downwards motion. This does not meet the criteria of a red card (tackle with excessive force /endangering players safety).
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 4
Referee Steven McLean Game Minute 83rd Score At Time 0-0
Incident M. Johnston goes down in box under challenge from Butcher Outcome No decision; following VAR review penalty to Celtic and YC to Butcher Evidence Celtic 1-1 Motherwell | Late Obika Equaliser Gives Steelmen Draw! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
2:33
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict M Johnston goes down in the box following a corner
Initial on field decision: Initially no decision but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Celtic for a pulling offence.
Great spot by VAR here, as Butcher’s left-hand clears grabs Johnston’s shirt and pulls him back significantly enough to prevent him making contact with the ball. A clear pulling offence.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION to award the penalty
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
26/11/23 Aberdeen vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 90th Score At Time 1-0
Incident Goldson goes down in the area Outcome No decision; upon VAR review penalty to TRFC and YC to Gartenmann Evidence Aberdeen 1-1 Rangers | Late Penalty Brings Rangers Level | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 4:06
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Goldson goes down in the area
Initial on field decision: Initially no decision, but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Rangers and Gartenmann cautioned for a pulling offence.
Another good spot by VAR here as Goldson breaks away from his marker but before he can attempt to head the ball is clearly pulled back by his marker. I do feel Goldson drops to the floor quite easily, as Gartenmann releases his shirt, but the offence has already been committed and Goldson’s running momentum has been interrupted by the initial pulling offence.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION to award the penalty for the pulling offence
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 90th Score At Time 1-1
Incident Goldson fouls Polvara Outcome Free kick to Aberdeen and YC to Goldson Evidence https://x.com/IKieranConnolly/status/1728886809055379691?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Goldson fouls Polvara
Initial on field decision: Free kick to Aberdeen, Goldson cautioned
Goldson would appear to be very lucky here, as I feel an act of violent conduct has occurred. Goldson clearly swings his left arm back into the face of the Aberdeen player and force me this is with excessive force, is unwarranted and Goldson also has a quick look first to see where the player is stood before swinging his arm back.
I am very surprised the VAR team have not recommended an on-field review for a possible red card offence and feel sure had the on-field referee watched the replay, Goldson would have received his marching orders.
Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. Red card issued to Goldson the expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC +0.35 xPts
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Another VAR incident leaves the Yorkshire Whistler “very surprised” which is as strong as it gets. At least I am less inclined to believe he is related to Conor Goldson after finally finding fault with his elbow into Dante Polvara’s head!
A note on the expected points outcome here. The xPts mechanism for sendings off is a bit of a blunt instrument as it awards a uniform average value depending on if you are the home or away team. Not ideal but remember this is a model and so a guide. If someone has a model that averages the xPts impact of a sending off given both time in match and game state please contact me.
Until then, some you win (sending off is in the first minute) and some you lose (sending off is in the last minute). In this instance, Aberdeen got no added time benefit and The Rangers next opponent(s) do not get the benefit of a suspended Goldson. So, on balance, meh.
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.25 less points and Celtic 0.8 less than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 0.55 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
Celtic lead by eight points after 14 matches having played a game more.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS ARTICLE WAS EDITED ON 15TH DECEMBER 2023. THE EXPECTED POINTS IMPACT OF THE NON SENDING OFF OF GOLDSON VS ABERDEEN WAS ASSIGNED THE DEFAULT HOME TEAM IMPACT INSTEAD OF THE AWAY TEAM IMPACT. THIS IS NOW CORRECTED.