Honest Mistakes - Week 12

I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL..

Today, we cover the games from match day 12 – 30th October 2021.

Reminder

I am indebted to the Yorkshire Whistler for providing expert judgement of these key potentially game changing moments and providing an unbiased assessment of the correct decision.

I do not always agree with his conclusions mainly because;

a) I am biased;

b) I do not know the Laws of the Game intimately as he does; and

c) I do not have experience of refereeing football matches.

You may also relate to those constraints. Be honest!

As described in the framework, where an in-game decision is deemed incorrect, there is an Expected Points impact for the “wronged” team and this is indicated.

I’ll keep a running tally.

Here we go.

30/10/21 Celtic vs Livingston

Incident 1

Date 23/10/21 Referee Bobby Madden Game Celtic vs Livingston Game Minute 83^rd

Incident Hart and Obileye challenge for a long, high, free kick pass Outcome No foul Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Sportscene Saturday 2021/22: 30/10/2021

At 24m 15sec

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Livingston swing a free kick in from out wide and keeper Hart goes to punch the ball as Livingston defender Obileye goes to head ball at same time. At full speed Hart and Obileye both appear to get to the ball at the same time and Obileye falls to the deck after this contact.

Totally understand referee’s decision in real time not to award any foul against Hart. He’s well positioned with a relatively unobstructed view.

Interestingly the two replays portray slightly different outcomes, with the first replay supporting Hart’s claims that he wins the ball first. Whereas second replay indicates maybe Obileye wins ball first and then as Hart’s arms are dropping as part of his downward body motion, he appears to catch the Livingston defender.

Verdict: Correct decision to not award the foul. In real time my instincts say no foul, benefit of doubt to the keeper. Even reviewing the slow-motion replays there’s not enough to dispute this outcome.

Expected Points

Outcome

No impact

Incident 2

Date 30/10/21 Referee Bobby Madden Game Celtic vs Livingston Game Minute 90^th

Incident Furuhashi and Obileye clash in the box Outcome Penalty to Celtic; RC to Obileye Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Sportscene Saturday 2021/22: 30/10/2021

At 25m 33s

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict A real rush of blood moment from Obileye as with minimal provocation, he decides to swipe out with an open hand and slap Kyogo in the back of the head.

You can question if the force and contact of the swipe are consistent with how easily Kyogo goes to ground, but you can’t dispute the sending off issued to Obileye and the subsequent penalty kick awarded.

Any attempt to strike an opposing player when not challenging for the ball, particularly above the neck, can only really be deemed to be violent conduct and the law does state ‘regardless of whether contact is made or not’

Verdict: Correct decision

Expected Points

Outcome

No impact

Note: As is now the norm with Bobby Madden, the game was punctuated with a stream of (to my untrained and biased eye) odd decisions that were not in themselves game changers. This analysis confines itself to the “big” moments – sendings off; goals allowed / disallowed. I undertake a separate analysis on patterns of fouls and cards.

31/10/21 Motherwell vs The Rangers

Date 31/10/21 Referee Nick Walsh Game Motherwell vs TRFC Game Minute 75^th

Incident Kamara scores from outside the box Outcome Goal to The Rangers Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - 2021/22: 31/10/2021

At 10m 53s

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Kamara hits a low driven strike from 20 yards out through a crowd of players and past the unsighted Motherwell keeper.

I was surprised this goal was allowed to stand as there can be little doubt that the Rangers forward is clearly stopping in an offside position and directly in front of the keeper as the ball is struck.

The goal is given as the other Rangers forward is deemed not to have played an active role in the goal.

I disagree with this finding as the offside states: a player is considered active and offside if he is preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision.

Clearly the Motherwell keeper’s line of sight is directly obstructed by the Rangers forward standing directly in front of him.

Verdict: Incorrect decision. Goal should have been ruled out for offside.

Expected Points

Outcome

+ 0.1 xPts

Note: O’Donnell (Motherwell) was red carded for two offences in this game. These incidents were not referred as they was virtually no media scrutiny and the incidents look (to my untrained eye) very clear cut!

Summary

My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.

Of the 3 incidents in the 2 matches, the referees seem to have got 2 out of 3 correct.

The error this week saw The Rangers extend their lead over Motherwell from 3-1 to 4-1. As such, given this was in the 75^th minute, the xPts impact is low. This is because The Rangers already had 2.8 xPts being 2 goals ahead with 15 minutes to play.

Remember that this is a model and therefore always has limitations. Whilst that late offside goal had little impact on the overall result of the match, the model does not account for any goal difference impact later in the season. It also cannot account for the impact to Motherwell on the day in terms of their confidence / morale, and whether that helped in any way to two further goals to be scored in the eventual 6-1 rout.

Expected Points Table

The Expected Points table is therefore:

At the moment, based on xPts, Celtic have 1.13 less points than expected due to Honest Mistakes and The Rangers have 2.2 more points than expected.

The current gap at the top of the table is 4 points.