Honest Mistakes to Week 34
The run-in is well underway so a bit of a catch-up this week and this takes us up to date to the end of game week 34.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
14/04/24 Ross County vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Matthew McDermid Game Minute 89th Score At Time 3-1
Incident Ball hits Khela in the box Outcome No decision; Penalty to TRFC for handball following VAR review Evidence Ross County 3-2 Rangers | Staggies Deal Comeback Blow To Gers' Title Hopes | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 4:20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision, but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Rangers for hand ball
Little bit of sympathy for the penalised defender here, as he is already in mid flight as the ball glances off the head of his team mate and then hits his arm, so he has no reaction time to adjust to the ball’s new flight path.
However his arm is well out in front of his arm and next to his knee and I can understand why the referee, on review, considers to be making his body shape unnaturally larger that is not justifiable in that specific situation, so feel the right call is eventually made to award the penalty.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
17/04/24 Dundee vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 32nd Score At Time 0-0
Incident Ball hits Souttar Outcome No decision following VAR review Evidence https://x.com/NouCampyFTW/status/1780676678542319934
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision after VAR review
In real time I would suspect this did not look like a hand ball, but they only footage available here is already slowed down, which makes the ball to hand contact more obvious.
We see the Dundee player control the ball with his knee and as Souttar goes to block, the Dundee player quickly flicks the in a different direction and the ball then hits Souttar’s right hand. Clearly accidental contact and the Rangers player has virtually zero reaction time to react to the new direction of the ball. Souttar’s arm is slightly raised but also bent and I feel in the context of starting to make a challenge from the first Dundee touch on the ball, his body is slightly larger, but not unnaturally so. In the this specific situation, expected body shape, so the non-handball decision is the correct one.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
28/04/24 Dundee vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 36th Score At Time 0-1
Incident Boateng fouls McGregor Outcome Foul to Celtic Evidence Evidence provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field review: Foul to Celtic, no VAR review
Boateng in an attempt to stretch for the ball only succeeds in seeing his studs catch the top of the Celtic players foot. Clearly a foul and VAR would have reviewed this to see if it also met the threshold for a possible red card offence (i.e tackle with excessive force / endangering players safety).
VAR right not to recommend an on field review by referee as this challenge does not meet the red card criteria in my opinion.
Boateng has not lunged in but rather just over stretched for the ball after a heavy first touch. His leg is right foot is stretched out, coming downwards and does not appear to carry the full of weight of his body behind this challenge. His left leg also accidentally slips which, otherwise would have seen the intended force behind this block lessened even further.
Overall deserving of a caution for a reckless challenge at worse (for which VAR does not get involved with)
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
28/04/24 St Mirren vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 85th Score At Time 1-2
Incident Butland clashes with Olusanya Outcome Foul to St Mirren and YC to Butland Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 28/04/2024
At 16:33
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Foul to St Mirren, yellow card to Butland
Long ball over top, Butland races out of his box to clear the ball just before the St Mirren forward connects with Butland’s body as he is in motion clearing the ball.
Personally I feel Butland is harshly penalised here. He has every right to come out of his box to kick the ball high and away from danger. Olusanya realises he isn’t going to get to the ball first and slows down, which sees his momentum take him into the right side hip/waist area of Butland who is already in motion himself.
I do not see anything untoward in Butland’s body shape which would suggest any attempt to ‘leave one on’ the St Mirren player and his eyes are always on the ball. Brave play by both players, but I feel it is more a case of Olusanya colliding into Butland, rather than Butland committing a foul.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision – no foul committed the expected outcome
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Controversy-free as the pressure within the league title race ramps up.
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers are estimated to have 1.30 MORE expected points and Celtic 1.83 LESS expected points due to the impact of Honest Mistakes.
The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 3.13 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
Celtic lead by three points after 34 matches.