Honest Mistakes: To Week 33
As the split looms, can Collum's Crusaders maintain an improving season?
It’s been a while. There has been Scottish Cup weekends, game days with no incidents of note and Yorkshire Whistler holidays.
Now as we get into the post-split fixtures, let’s bring us all up to date with the matches to 13th April.
The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
05/04/25 The Rangers vs Hibernian
Incident 1
Referee: Don Robertson
Game Minute: 49th
Score At Time: 0-1
Incident: Raskin challenges Triantis
Outcome: No decision following VAR review.
Evidence: Gers suffer FIFTH successive home defeat 😱 | Rangers 0-2 Hibernian | Scottish Premiership Highlights
At 1:05
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: No decision following VAR review
Raskin catches the Hibs player with a late challenge. The contact appears to be on top of the foot and is certainly worthy of a caution. However there doesn’t appear to be significant or excessive force behind the challenge and Raskins foot more grazes across Triantis foot than impacting it directly with force.
Verdict: CORRECT decision not to show a red card
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Incident 2
Referee: Don Robertson
Game Minute: 60th
Score At Time: 0-1
Incident: Ball hits Tavernier in the box
Outcome: No decision following VAR review.
Evidence: Rangers 0-2 Hibernian | Levitt Helps Hibs Go 16 League Games UNBEATEN | William Hill Premiership
At 2:13
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: No decision
Awkward bounce catches Tavernier unawares and the ball does hit his arm accidentally. However his arm is in a natural position is not extended and if anything, he moves his arm away from the ball trajectory as it arrives rather than extending towards the ball. No offence here.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
06/04/25 St Johnstone vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee: David Dickinson
Game Minute: 90th
Score At Time: 1-0
Incident: Johnston goes down in the box
Outcome: No decision following VAR review.
At 4:08
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: No decision
The Celtic man finds himself with back to goal as the ball is in the air and it appears he has an attempted bicycle kick on his mind as he’s stood between two defenders. As Johnston leans backwards into one of the defenders there is a natural switch of momentum and his arm is round the neck of his marker as they fall backwards. Not a foul for me.
Verdict: CORRECT decision.
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
12/04/25 St Johnstone vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee: John Beaton
Game Minute: 43rd
Score At Time: 4-1
Incident: Maeda scores for Celtic
Outcome: Offside following VAR review.
Evidence: Celtic 5-1 Kilmarnock | Hatate Grabs Brace As Hoops Score 5! | William Hill Premiership
At 3:30
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: Goal ruled out for offside
From the initial right hand side through ball, the central Celtic forward tries to time his run perfectly but the freeze frame image appears to show his upper body narrowly offside as the ball is played. Very tight call but on balance looks the right one.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
13/04/25 Aberdeen vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee: Steven McLean
Game Minute: 40th
Score At Time: 1-0
Incident: McCausland fouls Keskinen
Outcome: Second YC and RC for McCausland.
Evidence: Ten-man Rangers delay Celtic title win with last-gasp draw at Aberdeen - BBC Sport
At 0:30
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: Foul and McCausland sent off for a second caution-able offence
The Rangers player, already on a caution is chasing down his man and makes a slide tackle attempt 25 yards out. Replays would confirm he doesn’t play the ball but does catch the Aberdeen player just below the right knee. This foul is correctly recognised as stopping a promising attack given its proximity to the goal and so McCausland rightly is shown a second yellow card.
Verdict : CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Incident 2
Referee: Steven McLean
Game Minute: 43rd
Score At Time: 2-0
Incident: Igamane scores for TRFC
Outcome: Linesman rules ball out of play and goal disallowed.
Evidence: Ten-man Rangers delay Celtic title win with last-gasp draw at Aberdeen - BBC Sport
At 1:18
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: AR flags for ball out of play in build up and this is supported by VAR
Rangers left forward gets to bye line before crossing and the ball is drilled home at second attempt. AR deems ball to have just crossed the bye line and replays would just about support this narrow decision on review.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Incident 3
Referee: Steven McLean
Game Minute: 87th
Score At Time: 2-1
Incident: Nisbet scores for Aberdeen
Outcome: Goal disallowed by VAR for handball by Nisbet.
Evidence: Ten-man Rangers delay Celtic title win with last-gasp draw at Aberdeen - BBC Sport
At 2:12
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: Goal disallowed for handball
Nisbet thinks he has scored a late winner but the goal is disallowed for an accidental handball which he directly benefits from as his next touch is to drill the ball home after it ricochets of his right lower arm. Purely accidental but based on laws of the game, correct to disallow for a handball offence.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Another batch of spot on calls from Collum’s crusaders. The disinfectant of sunlight seems to be having the desired effect. No general uplift in quality, but unintended woe at least equally spread around.
This leaves the overall position thus:
Celtic have 0.74 MORE expected points, and The Rangers also have 0.35 MORE due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. So, Celtic’s expected advantage is 0.39 xPts.
Celtic lead by 15 points after 33 games.