Honest Mistakes to Week 28
This edition covers fixtures from the 6th February to the present – up match day 28.
The impact of a call being incorrect can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
18/02/23 Livingston vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 24th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Morelos goes up for a header Outcome Penalty to TRFC following VAR review Evidence (19) Livingston 0-3 Rangers | Tavernier Scores Penalty and Free Kick! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 0:21
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Penalty to Rangers following VAR review
Ball crossed into the box and the Livingston defender quite clearly and naïvely pulls on the shirt of Morelos which directly impacts his ability to try and jump to head the ball. Straight forward foul and penalty decision.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the penalty.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 38th Score At Time 0-1
Incident Stephen Kelly fouls Kamara Outcome Foul to TRFC; YC to Kelly Evidence (19) Livingston 0-3 Rangers | Tavernier Scores Penalty and Free Kick! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 1:28
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Free kick to Rangers and yellow card shown to Kelly
Kelly over runs the ball and in attempting to slide tackle and recover the ball, he lunges in late on Kamara. Given the studs are showing and the challenge is slightly off the ground, this is clearly a yellow card, reckless challenge but also there is a case to answer as to if this was actually a sending off offence.
I had to watch the replay several times before settling on the decision that a yellow card was, on the balance, the correct decision. Yes, the studs are off the ground but Kelly appears to recognise at the last second he won’t get to the ball first and so pulls his leg back and this take some of the ‘sting’ and impact out of the actual contact. If a red card had been shown at the time I would not have been surprised, but don’t feel there is enough here to say the yellow card was the wrong decision either.
Verdict: Correct decision to caution Kelly for the foul.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 77th Score At Time 0-1
Incident Omeonga challenges Roofe Outcome Foul to TRFC; second YC to Omeonga and RC Evidence (19) Livingston 0-3 Rangers | Tavernier Scores Penalty and Free Kick! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 4:15
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Omeonga challenges Roofe
Initial on field decision: Foul to Rangers and Omeonga sent off for second bookable offence.
Omeonga goes to close down the Rangers forward and appears to catch him with the smallest of impacts. I do believe there is a foul committed here but feel the Livingston defender will feel hard done by to have collected his 2nd yellow card of the game for this soft looking foul. It is my belief that the referee has shown the second yellow card and ultimately the resulting red card, as he feels the foul stopped a promising attack. Although there is an element of subjectivity over what any one person feels is a ‘promising attack’, it is my opinion here that this was not a promising attack. Roofe is outside the box, going away from goal. There are four or five defenders around and no Rangers player close by in support, who look like they might immediately benefit from Roofe’s potential next passage of play.
Verdict Incorrect decision. Foul is committed but a sending off for 2nd bookable offence was not the expected sanction outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC +0.86 xPts
04/03/23 The Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Incident 1
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 45th Score At Time 2-0
Incident Ball hits Alebiosu in the box Outcome Penalty to TRFC after VAR review, for handball Evidence (19) Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock | Excellent First Half Display At Ibrox | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 1:58
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ball hits Alebiosu in the box
Initial on field decision: Penalty to Rangers for handball following VAR review
The fact I had to watch this clip about 10 times to even spot an incident worthy of VAR review makes me suspect this will have been a contentious decision at the time. I just don’t agree with the decision at all to award a penalty for hand ball.
What I see is a defender and attacker both competing for the same space and after their initial contact, Alebiosu is knocked off balance and falls forward. For me, his arm is a natural position in the context of his tussle with the Rangers player. The ball kicks up off the surface and he makes no attempt to move his arm anywhere else. I found the decision to recommend a VAR review and the referee to then award a penalty for hand ball both baffling decisions.
Verdict: Incorrect decision to penalise for hand ball and award a penalty kick. No foul committed
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC +0.16 xPts
Incident 2
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 55th Score At Time 3-0
Incident McGregor and McKenzie clash in the box Outcome No decision Evidence (19) Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock | Excellent First Half Display At Ibrox | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:50
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict McGregor bundles into McKenzie in the box
Initial on field decision: No decision.
There is a coming together between the two players after the ball has bounced out of their reach. Minimal contact here and I suspect McKenzie leaves his leg dangling when he knows he’s not getting near the ball. I would not have been expecting a penalty to be awarded here.
Verdict: Correct decision to not award a foul.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 60th Score At Time 3-0
Incident Dorsett scores for Kilmarnock Outcome Goal to Kilmarnock Evidence (19) Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock | Excellent First Half Display At Ibrox | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 3:32
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Dorsett scores for Kilmarnock
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Kilmarnock
Dorsett scores from close range after his team mate wins a header at the back post. There is a question as to does the team mate push down on the shoulders of the Rangers player marking him and stop him from competing for the ball. For me the Rangers player is backing in his man and does not actually make any attempt at all to jump for the ball. In this situation. It is only the Kilmarnock that makes any attempt to jump and as such I do not feel he unfairly impedes the Rangers player and therefore agree with the on-field decision to allow the goal.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the goal.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
05/03/23 St Mirren vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 6th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Ball hits Taylor in the box Outcome Penalty to St Mirren following VAR review Evidence (19) St. Mirren 1-5 Celtic | Celtic Thrash St. Mirren To Stay Nine Points Clear | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 0:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ball hits Taylor in the box
Initial on field decision: Penalty to St Mirren after VAR review.
St Mirren player flicks ball up and it hits Taylor arm inside the box. Some sympathy for Taylor as there is little reaction after the ball is flicked up. However, his arm is outstretched and the arm clearly blocks the ball from its intended path. The arm is a lot higher than where the expected contact of the ball is and so I feel this makes his body unnaturally bigger and not justifiable by situational movement so a foul has been committed.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the penalty for hand ball offence.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 38th Score At Time 1-0
Incident Dunne challenges Kyogo Outcome Foul to Celtic; RC to Dunne; Penalty to Celtic rescinded following VAR review Evidence (19) St. Mirren 1-5 Celtic | Celtic Thrash St. Mirren To Stay Nine Points Clear | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 1:21
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Dunne pulls down Kyogo
Initial on field decision: Red card shown to Dunne. Penalty initially awarded and then changed to a free kick following VAR review.
Kyogo closes down the St Mirren defender who initially looks favourite to shepherd ball back to his keeper. But then Dunne under hits the back pass, panics and leans straight to Kyogo and drags him to the fall in the process. Given this is the clear denial of a goal scoring opportunity and that he makes no attempt to challenge for the ball, the red card is the correct sanction, irrespective of whether the challenge happens inside or outside the box. VAR intervenes and provides the referee with clarify that the offence did take place just outside the 18-yard box and so the free kick is awarded
Verdict: Correct to award the free kick and send off Dunne for a DOGSO
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 61st Score At Time 1-1
Incident Johnston scores for Celtic Outcome Goal to Celtic Evidence (19) St. Mirren 1-5 Celtic | Celtic Thrash St. Mirren To Stay Nine Points Clear | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:28
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Johnston scores for Celtic
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Celtic
Johnston gets on end of a Mooy free kick and heads home from close range. There is the question of does Johnston impede the St Mirren player whilst competing for the ball. There is some contact from Johnston’s arms but I do not see a clear push or infringement. It is a case of Johnston’s desire to win the ball is greater than that of his marker, who does not seem that interested in jumping or challenging for the ball.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the goal.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 4
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 61st Score At Time 1-4
Incident Oh goes down in the box Outcome Penalty to Celtic upon VAR review Evidence (19) St. Mirren 1-5 Celtic | Celtic Thrash St. Mirren To Stay Nine Points Clear | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 4:40
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Oh goes down in the box
Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Celtic after Var review
Oh falls down a little theatrically under the challenge of the St Mirren player and the referee believes he is trying to buy a penalty by suggesting his legs have been taken.
However, it is actually a clear shirt pull by the St Mirren on player which prevents Oh from getting to the ball and this is where VAR really shows its benefits. The referee is looking at lower contact and ball and so is unsighted for the upper body shirt pull. Once reviewed it is an easy decision for the referee to correctly award the penalty kick.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the penalty for the infringement.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
08/03/23 Celtic vs Hearts
Incident 1
Referee Alan Muir Game Minute 6th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Ginnelly scores for Hearts Outcome Goal awarded after VAR review for offside Evidence (19) Celtic 3-1 Hearts | Kyogo Furuhashi Scores and Assists in Home Victory | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 0:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ginnelly scores for Hearts
Initial on field decision: Offside given, overturned to goal to Hearts after Var review
Ball is played across from Hearts left flank, Ginnelly attempts to time his run and gets on end of ball to score. Flag goes up for a potential offside from the assistant referee and VAR decide the player was level and goal is ultimately awarded.
This is an incredibly marginal call either way as the closet defender to Ginnelly looks virtually level. I have been sent a still image of the point of contact from the other Hearts player that might make it appear that Ginnelly’s right knee hairs are 1mm offside, but when I watched and paused the footage independently, my gut feeling was Ginnelly was just level at the point of impact.
I would give the benefit of the doubt to the attacker on balance and so say the correct decision was made to award the goal.
Verdict; Correct decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Alan Muir Game Minute 29th Score At Time 0-1
Incident Bernabei fouls Atkinson Outcome Foul to Hearts and no further action following VAR review Evidence (19) Celtic 3-1 Hearts | Kyogo Furuhashi Scores and Assists in Home Victory | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:05
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Bernabei fouls Atkinson
Initial on field decision: Foul to Hearts. VAR check for a potential red card offence, not given after review.
Bernabei with an outstretched left foot does appear to catch the Hearts player and studs to catch the opponent’s outer right ankle.
As the studs are showing, I suspect this is why a VAR review takes place. However, for this tackle to be considered a red card for serious foul play, then the VAR team need to feel confident the referee has missed a tackle that endangers player safety or uses excessive force/brutality.
For me, Bernabei is almost in a standing position before then extending his leg to challenge for the ball. Therefore, he has no real momentum behind the leg extension and so there is no excessive force/brutality behind his tackle.
Slightly high? Yes. Red card offence? No.
Verdict: Correct decision not to upgrade the challenge to a sending off offence.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
The Rangers incredible fortune despite / because of (?) VAR continues with two further calls going their way whilst unfortunate wrong calls remain a stranger.
In terms of impact on the expected points picture:
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 3.43 MORE expected points due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 4.12 LESS.
A swing of 7.65 xPts.
Celtic lead by nine points and 27 goals after 28 matches.