Honest Mistakes - To Week 25
A lull since the early January games but a solid batch of scrutiny is required this week.
This takes us up to date with all the SPFL Premiership matches.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
03/02/24 Aberdeen vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Steven McLean Game Minute 55 Score At Time 1-1
Incident Nawrocki fouls Miovski Outcome Foul to Aberdeen Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 03/02/2024
At 7:15
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Foul awarded to Aberdeen
Nawrocki, who is already on a yellow card, stretches to the win ball before Miovski the Aberdeen player. Miovski is just too quick, and nicks the ball away before Nawrocki’s right foot catches him late on the shin.
Clearly a foul and I was very surprised to not see a 2nd yellow card brandished to the Celtic man for what appeared to be a challenge reckless in nature as the foot caught the Aberdeen man on the shin.
Worth pointing out that this challenge did not appear to meet the red card criteria (challenge with excessive force/endangering player safety) and so VAR protocols would not allow VAR to recommend on-field referee reviews a potential yellow card decision (they can only recommend for a potential red card offence)
Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. Nawrocki should have been issued a 2nd yellow card/sending-off offence, after the foul had been correctly awarded.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic +0.51 xPts
03/02/24 The Rangers vs Livingston
Incident 1
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 40th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Silva scores for TRFC Outcome Goal to TRFC Evidence Rangers 3-0 Livingston | Silva Grabs First Gers Goal In Comfortable Victory | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 1:19
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal awarded
Silva scores from the corner but in the build-up there is a question of a potential foul from a high boot from Goldson as he challenges with a Livingston player.
I’ve watched the clip back several times and this is a borderline, subjective decision as I do not believe there is any contact made by Goldson.
However, I believe that, on review, this goal should have been disallowed and that Goldson’s challenge should have been deemed a foul.
I’m not convinced the referee has seen the height of Goldson’s foot given, which is understandable to an extent, given how congested the penalty area is. However, I believe that kind of challenge is being awarded anywhere else on the pitch if there are no other players around and a clear sight is offered.
Goldson’s body language also suggests he thinks it will be given as a foul, as he immediately holds both hands up, in an apologetic manner as soon as he lands, and also tries to tell the referee he played the ball, as he prepares for the incident to be reviewed in advance I suspect.
Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION – goal should have been disallowed and a defensive free kick the expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC +0.7 xPts
06/02/24 The Rangers vs Aberdeen
Incident 1
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 88th Score At Time 2-1
Incident Sterling fouls McGrath Outcome Foul to Aberdeen; RC to Sterling following VAR review Evidence Rangers 2-1 Aberdeen | Cantwell Spoils Warnock’s First Game In Charge | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 4:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Sterling sent off and confirmed by VAR.
Sterling has a heavy first touch and this sees him then lunge in, at full stretch and catch the Aberdeen player. He is not in control of his challenge, and also he appears to slip.
This then gives the appearance of a two-footed challenge, off the floor. I have an element of sympathy due to the slip rather than diving into the challenge with no attempt to play the ball – however, I feel that ultimately the referee made the right call to stick with his original decision to send Sterling off. He slipped and raised his other foot as he was over-stretching/not in control of the challenge and did therefore endanger the player's safety.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 90th Score At Time 2-1
Incident Ball twice hits Goldson in the TRFC penalty area Outcome No decision Evidence Rangers 2-1 Aberdeen | Cantwell Spoils Warnock’s First Game In Charge | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 4:36
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on-field decision: No foul awarded.
A ball is parried by Butland and Goldson jumps with two other players to win the loose ball. The ball initially ricochets onto his at a very close distance off the Aberdeen player.
Given the proximity and lack of reaction time, I’m happy no handball offence has been committed so far. Then within a few seconds, Goldson is again involved when he is sent sprawling to the floor, after tussling with an Aberdeen player. With his back to play, another Aberdeen fires a shot that hits the elbow of the Rangers defender.
Again, I feel the right call is made not to penalise for a handball offence. His arm is tucked under his falling body, his proximity to the ball that is shot and his associated lack of reaction time, all lead me to the conclusion that his arm is again in a natural position specific to that passage of play.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
07/02/24 Hibernian vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 4th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Johnston goes down in the box following an aerial challenge with Triantis Outcome Penalty to Celtic Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 07/02/2024
At 16:30
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Celtic.
Triantis jumps to try and head the ball along with Johnston who wins the ball first. Triantis does appear to only have eyes for the ball, but he gets there a fraction too late and so gets nothing on the ball and heads the cheek of the Celtic man.
Straight forward decision in my opinion.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 62nd Score At Time 1-1
Incident Boyle goes down in the penalty box Outcome Foul to Celtic and YC to Boyle for diving Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 07/02/2024
At 21:22
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on-field decision: Foul to Celtic and Boyle was shown a yellow card.
Boyle initially shows a great bit of individual skill to get past his marker and break into the Celtic box. He is then challenged by a Celtic player before going to ground quite theatrically.
In real-time, my instinct was no foul and a yellow card for simulation. Upon watching the replay, my instincts are proven correct. Even if there is a tiny element of contact between knees, this contact is instigated by the Hibs player, and would in no way create the change of body shape that Boyle then transitions into as he jumps to the ground.
For me, an excellent piece of refereeing to identify and sanction this attempt to hoodwink the referee and buy a penalty.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 88th Score At Time 1-1
Incident Kyogo shoots then goes down in the Hibernian box Outcome Foul and penalty to Celtic following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 07/02/2024
At 24:37
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on-field decision: No decision but then a penalty was awarded to Celtic after VAR review.
Kyogo gets his shot before being caught on the bottom of the shin by the Hibs defender.
I can see why this was awarded after review as the contact happens on the line (and on the line is classed the same as inside the line, so it is an offence inside the penalty area if a foul is to be awarded, as opposed to a free kick. The defender is stretching to block the shot but gets there too late to parry the ball and instead slides into Kyogo’s shooting foot.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION to award the penalty kick.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
One wrong call benefitting each of the top two in what is turning into a very close title battle.
These decisions will become increasingly material.
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.53 more points and Celtic 0.29 less than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 0.82 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
Celtic lead by three points after 25 matches having played one game more.