Honest Mistakes - The Final Countdown

A delayed catch up on the big decisions affecting the final SPFL Premier games of the season.

Thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.

BACKGROUND - I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.

07/05/22 Celtic vs Hearts

Incident 1

Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 3rd

Incident Simms scores for Hearts Outcome Goal to Hearts Evidence Celtic 4-1 Hearts | Celtic on Brink of Winning Premiership! | cinch Premiership - YouTube

At 00:01

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal awarded

Tight offside call to look at here. At the point the Hearts player flicks the ball into the path of Simms there is a question of whether he is just in an offside position.

To the naked eye this appears to be level and if you look at the first slow motion replay, I would say this was the correct decision. I arrive at this conclusion by virtue of the Celtic defenders standing leg which is set further back than the rest of the body.

Drawing the imaginary VAR lines I suspect this would make the Hearts player’s upper body just onside.

Again, a decision that goes either way by mere millimetres but based on my viewpoint, I would allow goal to stand.

Expected Points

Outcome

No impact

Incident 2

Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 37^th

Incident Furuhashi scores from Jota header Outcome Goal to Celtic Evidence Celtic 4-1 Hearts | Celtic on Brink of Winning Premiership! | cinch Premiership - YouTube

At 01:25

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal to Celtic

Kyogo’s header appears to cross the goal line before being clawed away by the Hearts keeper. The final slow-motion replay makes this a straight forward decision. The whole of the ball clearly crossed the line.

Verdict: Correct decision to award the goal.

Expected Points

Outcome

No impact

Incident 3

Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 90^th

Incident Giakoumakis scores for Celtic Outcome Goal to Celtic Evidence Celtic 4-1 Hearts | Celtic on Brink of Winning Premiership! | cinch Premiership - YouTube

At 04:03

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Celtic

The only point of contention I could see here was the opening pass into the feet of the Celtic forward player and whether he was stood in an offside position as the pass is made.

For me the Celtic player takes up a good position between the two Hearts defenders. He appears to be level.

Verdict: Correct decision to award goal.

Expected Points

Outcome

No impact

07/05/22 The Rangers vs Dundee Utd

Referee Steven McLean Game Minute 55^th

Incident Sakala goes down under challenge from Siegrist Outcome Penalty to TRFC Evidence Rangers 2-0 Dundee United | Tavernier Scores Penalty As Rangers Secure 3 Points! | cinch Premiership - YouTube

02:30

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Penalty to The Rangers

Sakala flicks ball past on rushing Dundee Utd keeper who appears to take out Sakala and the penalty is awarded. Real time and slow-motion replay both confirm this is a straight forward call. Keeper clearly gets the player and not the ball.

Verdict: Correct decision to award penalty.

Expected Points

Outcome

No impact

11/05/22 The Rangers vs Ross County

Referee Andrew Dallas Game Minute 29^th

Incident Tavernier goes down in the box from Iacovitti Outcome Penalty to TRFC Evidence Celtic are cinch Premiership Champions! | Matchweek 37 Round Up | cinch Premiership - YouTube

At 10:44

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Penalty to Rangers.

Tavernier breaks into box and evades the sliding challenge of the Ross County defender, who then appears to catch the Rangers captain.

Again, this appears to be a routine decision. The Ross County defender commits to a sliding challenge and his momentum sees his out stretched boot miss the ball and then catch the Rangers player on the shin. Not much contact but enough to warrant the foul.

Verdict: Correct decision to award the penalty

Expected Points

Outcome

No impact

14/05/22 Celtic vs Motherwell

Referee Alan Muir Game Minute 59^th

Incident Jota scores for Celtic Outcome Goal to Celtic Evidence Celtic 6-0 Motherwell | Celtic Lift Title after SIX goals! | cinch Premiership - YouTube

At 02:09

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal to Celtic

Jota looks to time his run and slots home from a through ball from Maizen.

In real time this looks a really close call and the first slow motion replay shows that Jota went a split second too soon. He is just offside as the pass is made.

Verdict: Incorrect decision. Goal should have been disallowed for offside.

Expected Points

Outcome

+0.05 xPts

Summary

My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler. His Sheffield Wednesday team were pipped in the play offs (thanks to Paddy Roberts and Sunderland!) but he gamely persisted to the end of the SPFL season.

It looked like it was going to be a clean sheet for the referees over the last few game weeks, until Alan Muir spoiled it and it was Celtic who benefited. With their 4^th goal. That earned approximately 0.05 xPts. Whoopy doo.

Minimal movement in the FINAL xPts position then.

At the final reckoning, Celtic had 3.59 LESS Points than expected and The Rangers had 1.47 MORE points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes.

The overall difference, therefore, is 5.06 points.

Celtic won the league by 4 points.

Had VAR been in place, assuming that the VAR operators agreed with the Yorkshire Whistler’s verdicts, Celtic would have won the league a week or so earlier.

I will be summarising the Honest Mistake series in a follow up post.