Honest Mistakes - SPFL Week 16
The media have dictated that officiating remain front and centre on the agenda over the last week in Scottish football. Many remain aghast Celtic got the better of a very tight call against Hearts.
Crawford Allan, head of refereeing, was wheeled out and made sure Bobby Madden and team knew that they were probably incorrect on that occasion AND (the horror!) stopping play when Jota’s hamstring went “Ping!”. The inhumanity!
Dressing downs administered in public and messages sent, Celtic’s next outing at Dundee United was compelling viewing. Incorrect offside, you say? Celtic average 1.75 offsides against in all games this season. Don Robertson’s team managed to call the Celtic offside 7 TIMES in one game! The typically sporadic Sky highlights showed clearly that at least 4 of these were incorrect. Message received and understood?
Onto the Big Decisions of the weekend then, in the post Allan landscape.
These cover the games from match day 16 – 4th and 5th December.
BACKGROUND - I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL..
04/12/21 The Rangers vs Dundee
Incident 1
Referee Alan Muir Game Minute 20th
Incident Hagi goes down in the box under challenge from Adam Outcome No decision Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Sportscene Saturday 2021/22: 04/12/2021
At 02:55
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Interesting incident this one, as differing camera angles paint a slightly different picture.
When assessing any footage, I always note down my first, gut instinct decision based on the first take at full speed, as this decision best reflects my thought process when on the field of play as an active referee.
Then I revisit my views and thought process once additional angles and slow-motion footage is analysed.
So my first reaction was this was a great challenge and no foul committed. Adam’s left leg is straight and appears to make contact with the ball as Hagi turns inside. Adam’s leg is using simply as a blocking appendage rather than proactively going to strike the ball with his left foot.
The first replay I feel also supports this assessment.
The final clip, from a different angle however indicates that Adams leg might actually catch Hagi’s right foot before making contact with the ball itself.
On reflection I feel the initial decision is correct. I don’t feel the referee has made an error in not awarding a penalty kick. The clips are not conclusive enough to show that a clear foul was committed and I would support the referees on field decision.
Verdict: Correct decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Alan Muir Game Minute 64th
Incident Griffiths fouls Bassey Outcome Free kick to TRFC Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Sportscene Saturday 2021/22: 04/12/2021
At 08:35
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Griffiths, already on a yellow card appears to catch Bassey late, with his right foot catching the defender on the side of his left calf.
My initial thought here was a straight forward yellow card for Griffiths. It appears to be a mis timed tackle and meets the remit of a reckless tackle, which would result in a yellow card.
I have stated previously that player reactions should never play a part in the referee’s decision-making process and I still abide by this. As we all know, players regularly and consistently attempt to influence many on field decisions during any game of football.
However, sometimes on the field of play, when an incident has transpired and you have multiple players appealing/challenging your initial decision for an extended length of time, you can’t help but silently ask yourself ‘Have I missed something more serious here?’
More telling in regards to this particular incident is the reaction of Griffiths himself. On his knees, dejected and I believe fully expecting himself to shortly receive the yellow/red card combo that will end his afternoon early!
Verdict: Correct foul decision. Incorrect sanction as Griffiths should have received a red card for a second bookable offence.
Expected Points
Outcome
The Rangers -0.35 xPts
05/12/21 Dundee United vs Celtic
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute
Incident Butcher fouls Turnbull Outcome Foul to Celtic and YC for Butcher Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - 2021/22: 05/12/2021
At 08:23
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict This didn’t take much reflecting on. This is nasty challenge with Butcher lunging in with his raised studs clearly catching Turnbull shin high. This is a tackle with excessive force which endangers the opposing players safety and a Red card should have been issued to Butcher.
Although as fans we sometimes question how certain incidents can be missed by referees, I do have a small amount of sympathy for the referee here.
Clearly, he has not seen the level of contact made by Butcher and this I suspect is due to an additional Dundee Utd and Celtic player both running across his field of vision as the crucial point of contact is made by Butcher. Also, the tackle is made running away from the referee so, in essence, the referee is front on to the incident and would have to see though Butchers body to then be able to see the contact on Turnbull’s leg unobstructed.
Just trying to put myself in the referee’s position at the time, as he’s probably thinking ‘I’ve not clearly seen the level of contact made here’ and it’s a tough call to issue a player with a red card if you’re having to estimate the level of contact you think might have just happened, rather than be certain if it.
Verdict: Correct foul decision but incorrect sanction. Butcher should have been Red card for serious foul play tackle.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.86 xPts
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
And finally, in Week 16, The Ranger’s had a big call go against them! At home to Dundee, when 2-0 up, Griffiths should have been sent off. I wonder where Alan Muir will be assigned this weekend!
Now, similarly, Celtic were 2-0 up at Dundee United when Butcher should have been sent off.
You will notice that a blanket xPts tariff is applied in each case based on whether the team affected was home or away. This is explained in detail in this article.
I acknowledge that this is imperfect as unlike the xPts applied to goals wrongly allowed / disallowed which takes into account game state and time of incident, the sending’s off adjustment does not. This is something will try and improve for next season, if I have the will to carry on with this!
For now, as with all models, there are imperfections and it will be a case of “win some / lose some” in terms of what side of the xPts assignment you are on. For example, against Dundee United at home when Fuchs should have been sent off after 14 mins and was not, and the game ended a draw, 0.35 xPts feels too small. Whereas when 2-0 up away in the 61st minute, 0.86 xPts fees like too many.
Swings and roundabouts.
Expected Points Table
The Expected Points table is therefore:
At the moment, based on xPts, Celtic have 1.94 less points than expected due to Honest Mistakes and The Rangers have 1.75 more points than expected.
That is a 3.69 xPts swing.
The current gap at the top of the table is still 4 points.