Honest Mistakes: Season Final
The league is over, the good guys have won!
But there were a few weeks of matches to catch up on regarding the big calls.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
04/05/24 Celtic vs Hearts
Incident 1
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 33rd Score At Time 2-0
Incident Lembikisa and Forrest challenge for a high ball Outcome No decision Evidence Evidence provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No foul committed.
Ball bounces over top of Hearts defender so he & Forrest then run to get to the ball first near the touchline. Lembikisa appears to be favourite to clear the ball as he gets to the ball first. However, as he lifts his foot to kick the ball, he isn’t aware that Forrest is attempting to head the ball at the same time. On review I feel this should have been awarded as foul for the high foot from the Hearts player. However, as he just plays the ball first and doesn’t make any obvious contact with the Celtic’s player face, I can understand why the VAR review didn’t think this was a potential red card for excessive force/endangering a player’s safety and so no on field review is recommended. Judging my Forrest’s reaction, he doesn’t go down injured but feels the boot was high enough to warrant at least a foul in his favour.
In the context of this specific situation, I would confirm the VAR was right not to recommend a review for a potential red card but at the same time feel the Hearts player should have been penalised as a careless challenge and a free kick should have been awarded to Celtic.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Free kick to Celtic expected outcome (but no sending off expected).
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 76th Score At Time 2-0
Incident Shankland (already on YC) kicks in extra ball to stop quick goal kick Outcome No decision Evidence Evidence provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision
Interesting passage of play here as we see Celtic win a goal kick and as Hart goes to play a quick kick with a replacement football, Shankland kicks the original ball back into play which then means Hart has to take the goal kick again as there are two balls on the field of play.
Considering Shankland was already on a yellow card, if the referee had deemed his actions to be a deliberate attempt to delay restart of play, Shankland could have been sent off for a second yellow card.
This is a subjective kind of incident and one of those grey areas where a referee has an opportunity to show some empathy to the game. Does Shankland know what he’s doing and is there an element of gamesmanship at play here? On balance I’d say, he probably knows what he is doing by kicking the ball back into play, but he does it in a nonchalant manner, that just creates enough doubt that he might not have realised. Displaying empathy of the game, I would personally say this does not warrant the player to be sent off for this particular incident. But I appreciate some will say, by the letter of the law the referee could have been justified in interpreting his actions as a deliberate delay of the restart.
Verdict: CORRECT decision not to penalise as a foul and show a yellow card.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 86th Score At Time 2-0
Incident Shankland (already on YC) blocks cross into the box Outcome No decision; Penalty to Celtic following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 04/05/2024
At 10:20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Celtic.
Shankland challenges for a header as a corner is swung into the box and inexplicably raises his right hand slightly at the last minute and makes his body shape unnaturally larger. The handball is the correct decision in this instance as its difficult to justify why he raises the arm at the last second. A yellow card should have been shown here as well, as Shankland has handled the ball whilst interfering with a promising attack – on the basis the corner kick was about to drop in the defenders 6-yard box, so I would say this should have deemed a promising attack and therefore the second yellow card should have been showed to Shankland.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Even though the penalty award was correct, Shankland being shown a second yellow card is the expected outcome here.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.11 xPts
05/05/24 The Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Incident 1
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 3rd Score At Time 0-0
Incident Ball hits Ndaba in the box Outcome No decision; VAR ask referee to check a handball penalty but he sticks with original decision Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: Rangers v Kilmarnock
At 3:40
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No foul. Var recommends on field review for a potential handball decision. Referee reviews but sticks with his original decision to not award a penalty kick.
Ndaba and Rangers react to reach a long throw into the Kilmarnock box. The ball hits the knee of the Rangers player as both players come together. This contact then sees the ball bounce up and accidentally hit the arm of Ndaba. Although Ndaba’s arm is extended out this is fully expected as he & his opponent collide together. Fully justifiable and expected. I am very happy the referee has stuck with his original decision here as I do not feel VAR should have recommended the review in the first place.
Verdict: CORRECT decision to not award the handball
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 19th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Ball hits Wright in the box Outcome No decision; on VAR review penalty to TRFC for handball and red card to Wright Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: Rangers v Kilmarnock
At 7:29
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Rangers and Wright sent off.
Silva springs the offside trap and crosses the ball into the box past the keeper. Wright appears to misjudge the bounce of the ball and in his attempts to block the goal bound effort by Sterling, he only succeeds in seeing his extended arm beat the ball away as Sterling looks certain to bundle the ball home from close range.
Difficult for the referee to see in real time but once spotted by the VAR review, the penalty decision for handball is correct as Wright has no reason to extend his ram out as part of his body movement to block the ball. If it does not hit his arm, Sterling is certain to score. Denial of an obvious goal scoring opportunity (which this is) by a handball offence is a sending off and so the correct outcome is reached.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
11/05/24 Celtic vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 8th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Diomande fouls Hatate Outcome Free kick to Celtic Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 11/05/2024
At 03:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Free kick to Celtic
Hatate breaks away from Diomande and the Rangers player appears to barge Hatate from behind and Celtic are awarded the free kick. In the slow motion replay the challenge does look a little worse as we can see Diomande raise his right fore and push it forward so it connects with the neck area of Hatate. So then we consider is there a consideration this action is deemed to ‘serious foul play’ and therefore a potential red card offence?
Given the speed the players are running at and Diomande’s keenness to win the ball back, I would say his movement is more over enthusiasm rather than out and out aggression. A foul – absolutely. Yellow card – arguably justifiable for tackling in a reckless manner. But not enough for me to meet serious foul play criteria.
Verdict; CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 45th Score At Time 2-1
Incident Lundstram fouls Johnston Outcome Foul to Celtic; YC to Lundstram; On VAR review RC to Lundstram Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 11/05/2024
At 08:52
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Foul to Celtic Lundstram cautioned. After VAR review, foul upgraded to red card offence & Lundstram sent off
Lundstram reads a pass aimed at the Celtic full back and believing he can get to the ball first, fully commits to tackle in which he appears to catch the foot of Johnstone rather than the ball. In real time, my gut feeling this was at the very least a reckless tackle and easily a yellow card offence and I also wondered if it was also bordering on the red card criteria of ‘excessive force/endangering players safety’.
Upon watching the replay back you can see that Lundstram does appear to lunge into the tackle, momentarily both feet leave the ground and his studs do catch the right hand shin of Johnston at full force. Upon reflection I believe VAR are correct to recommend an on field review for a possible red card offence and that the decision to send off Lundstram is, ultimately the correct one.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 51st Score At Time 2-1
Incident O’Riley goes down on the box Outcome Penalty to Celtic; VAR asks for review but referee sticks with penalty call Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 11/05/2024
At 09:55
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Celtic. VAR asks referee for on field review for possible wrong decision, but referee sticks with original on field decision.
O’Riley goes past Diomande in the box and goes down suggesting he has clipped. The on field referee believes there is justifiable contact to be penalised as a foul and gives the penalty. VAR team are not convinced this is a foul so recommend the review but referee sticks with his initial decision.
This is a subjective call in my opinion and one of those frustrating incidents where some will say foul, others will say no foul. At full speed I can understand why it is given as the referee is really well positioned and sees the contact as Diomande’s running stride catches the heels of the Celtic man.
In slow motion the contact looks minimal and it can look like O’Riley has stepped into Diomande rather than Diomande stretching to make a challenge. I felt that O’Riley had deliberately initiated the contact then I would have said VAR were correct.
However, for me, O’Riley does not look behind and cannot know where Diomande is located. He is about to get a shot off inside the penalty area and has no reason to go down, other than the clip of his foot is enough to knock him off the balance. Given O’Rileys advantageous position, clear of his marker, I would say the referee is well within his right to stick with his initial decision. Once the foul is awarded, I do not believe this is a clear and obvious error.
Verdict: CORRCT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 4
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 65th Score At Time 2-1
Incident Ball hits Sterling in the box Outcome No decision following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 11/05/2024
At 12:20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision following VAR review
Celtic play a ball into the box and Sterling, in close proximity to a Celtic player, moves his body to the ball in an attempt to block the cross. Celtic appeal for an handball offence.
In real time it is difficult to see what contact is made and slow motion it appears the ball just grazes his lower arm. Clearly accidental contact and on balance I would give Sterling the benefit of the doubt in terms of natural body shape specific to that situation. His eyes on ball and he keeps his arms down by his side until the last second. Then as he goes to block the ball, he also reacts to the Celtic player’s outstretched boot which sees his slightly extend his shoulder whilst bringing his lower arm (which is where the ball clips) back inwards rather than extend outwards. For me, not enough to warrant a hand ball, penalty decision.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
15/05/24 Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 5th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Idah scores for Celtic Outcome Goal to Celtic Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 15/05/2024
At 2:24
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal to Celtic
Idah scores a relatively straight forward goal but there is a question of a foul/head injury to the Kilmarnock player right at the start of the passage of play.
I can understand Kilmarnock’s managers’ frustrations when play is not stopped, as his player receives a stray, accidental arm into his face and clearly goes down holding his face as a result. The referee does seem to look straight at the prone player clutching his face & the expected outcome here is to stop play, due to a possible head injury, allow the player to be assessed by the physio and then restart play with a drop ball if no foul was committed.
However, once the referee chooses to allow play to continue. I can only assume he does not feel it is a serious looking injury), there is nothing in law to say that Celtic cannot continue to play and therefore the goal is correct to stand.
Personally, I’d be disappointed as the match referee if I’m watching this back, as the game in general, from a sporting sense expects play to be stopped as soon as a potential head/face injury is recognised. Ultimately this is down to the referee’s discretion/judgement and on that basis, the goal correctly stands.
Verdict: CORRECT decision.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 30th Score At Time 0-2
Incident Donnelly fouls Hatate Outcome Foul to Celtic; YC to Donnelly Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 15/05/2024
At 6:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Foul to Celtic, caution for Donnelly for a reckless challenge
Donnelly has a heavy first touch which then sees his next action that of a stretch to try and win the ball before Hatate can collect the ball. In over stretching his studs catch Hatate who goes down injured. This challenge does look like a a bit of a lunge and so there is the question should this have been deemed as a red card worthy challenge (for excessive force/endangering players safety).
On first view I felt, definitely a yellow card (reckless challenge) but that there didn’t seem quite enough to warrant a red card. In slow motion we can see that Donnelly’s left leg is extended, very low and in a horizontal motion and he does appear to have eyes on the ball. Hatate is just too quick for him and so receives Donnelly’s studs on his standing foot as a result. A hefty tackle and fully warranting the caution, but, for me, just staying the correct side of a reckless challenge rather than that of an excessive force category of challenge.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
18/05/24 Celtic vs St Mirren
Incident 1
Referee Matthew McDermid Game Minute 24th Score At Time 1-1
Incident Olusanya goes down in the box Outcome Penalty to St Mirren Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 18/05/2024
At 6:13
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Penalty to St Mirren
Following a long ball, Welsh misjudges the bounce, which allows Olusanya to bear down on goal. Welsh is behind his man as the St Mirren attacker breaks into the box and, in his attempts to challenge his man, Welsh is adjudged to have impeded Olusanya and a penalty is awarded. In real time I thought it looked a penalty, albeit with not much contact as Welsh was wrong side of his man. The replays suggest Welsh doesn’t extend his foot to make any attempt to tackle given his position, but instead he leans into the attacker and it his left arm that nudges this opponent in his back. This contact knocks Olusanya off balance and the foul is committed.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Matthew McDermid Game Minute 63rd Score At Time 2-2
Incident Olusanya goes down in the box Outcome No decision following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 18/05/2024
At 10:57
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision following VAR review.
Olusanya attempts to break into the Celtic penalty area but can’t shrug off the attentions of his marker. After minimal contact he goes to ground with very little contact from the Celtic defender. Clearly no foul.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
18/05/24 Hearts vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 12th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Dessers goes down in the box Outcome No decision following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 18/05/2024
At 24:47
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision following VAR review
Dessers attempts to get on end of a cross and goes to ground. He immediately jumps and remonstrates he has been pulled back by his marker. Difficult to see anything in real time but upon watching the replay there’s does appear to be a very brief moment where the Hearts player holds Dessers shirt. Similar to other incidents reviewed throughout the season, there have been numerous examples of grabbing, holding and pulling by players who are competing for the same spaces and so an element of contact & jostling is part and parcel of the game. Where we see very brief holding/pulling offences the context of the challenge, impact of players movement and likelihood of winning the ball are all factored into if it constitutes a foul or not. Here Dessers doesn’t look likely to get on the end of the cross of his position and I don’t believe the very brief holding seen is enough to impact Dessers ability to jump for the ball. Therefore no penalty expected in this particular incident.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 52nd Score At Time 1-0
Incident McCausland scores for TRFC Outcome Goal to TRFC Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 18/05/2024
At 27:19
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Rangers
McCausland scores a good individual goal but there is a question of a possible foul in the build-up. As McCausland initially controls a high ball, the Hearts player closest to him goes to ground claiming McCausland has caught him with a high boot. In real time I didn’t feel this was a foul and there was no contact made, and this is supported in the replays. The Hearts player isn’t close enough to the challenge to be caught by the Rangers man and you can see within a couple of seconds of dropping to the ground, the Hearts is straight back to his feet when he realises he has not won the foul decision.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 73rd Score At Time 1-2
Incident Vargas goes down in the box Outcome No decision Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 18/05/2024
At 30:33
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No foul committed
A ball is played into the box and Vargas & Rangers defender jostle to win the ball. Vargas feels his arm slightly tugged and immediately drops to the ground claiming a foul. This appears to be an instance of a player feeling the slightest of contact and trying to manufacture the foul decision. The way he drops to the ground is totally disproportionate with the actual contact on his arm. For me, clearly no foul committed.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
The officials had a good run post-split with only one poor call in the final few matches.
We’ll do a proper wash-up later, but to conclude the league impacts.
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers are estimated to have 1.30 MORE expected points and Celtic 1.94 LESS expected points due to the impact of Honest Mistakes.
The Rangers benefited by an estimated 3.24 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
Celtic won the league by eight points.