Honest Mistakes - Not Him Again!
This week saw Celtic eventually overcome a stubborn Kilmarnock side whilst The Rangers attempted to maintain the gap the next day at Dundee United.
The impact of a call being incorrect can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
08/01/23 Dundee United vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Steven McLean Game Minute 27th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Ball hits Goldson in the box Outcome No decision Evidence (6) Dundee United 0-2 Rangers | The Blues Secure Win After Two Quick-Fire Goals! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 1:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Goldson blocks a cross into the box
Initial on field decision: No foul.
A Dundee Utd cross comes into the box and through a crowd of players, the ball hits Goldson on the hand before being cleared.
In real time, I can see why this decision was not given. Goldson has little time to react to the ball arriving through a crowd of players. Also, it is worth noting the position of both the referee & assistant referee as the ball arrives into the cluster of players. They simply cannot see what & who made the contact, due to the number of players involved and their proximity to each other.
However, upon replay, it would appear that Goldson has been a tad fortunate here. Although I do not feel any clear & obvious error has been committed by the referee initially, due to the information and amount of bodies & short reaction time, the slow-motion angle does show Goldson’s arm extended.
At the last moment before contact & under pressure from the Dundee Utd player, he spins his body clockwise. This movement causes his left arm to extend unnaturally, albeit accidentally. As the ball would have otherwise got through to the Dundee Utd player, this movement for me is not Goldson challenging for the ball & so I would interpret this as a foul due to the arm being ‘out’, when it does not need to be.
If this game did not have VAR, I would have no qualms with the on-field decision of no foul but if VAR reviewed this, under the ‘clear & obvious error criteria’ (which it seems they feel it did not meet), I suspect a penalty would have been awarded for Dundee Utd.
Verdict: Incorrect decision. Hand ball and penalty kick to Dundee Utd the expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC +0.47 xPts
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Conor Goldson’s volleyball odyssey through Scottish football continues but this time he has been spiked!
In terms of impact on the expected points picture, The Rangers are estimated to have benefitted by 0.47 xPts given the probability of Dundee United scoring the penalty is 79%.
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 1.55 MORE points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 4.12 LESS.
A swing of 5.67 xPts.
Celtic lead by nine points after 21 matches.