Honest Mistakes: League Cup Special
A catch up of game week two and a League Cup special given the number of incidents that emerged in the two match ups involving Glasgow’s largest sides.
Special thanks to the Yorkshire Whistler who managed to turn around these decisions in quick order due to pressing commitments. Hence the usual fantastic in-depth detail is a bit less this time around.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
SPFL Game Week Two
13/08/23 Aberdeen vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 57th Score At Time 1-2
Incident Maeda challenged in the box by Devlin Outcome No decision Evidence (16) Aberdeen 1-3 Celtic | Kyogo's Goal Keeps Champions On Top | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 3:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Maeda challenged in the box by Devlin.
Initial on field decision - No offence
Watched this many times over and can make a case both ways. Maeda gets in front of Devlin and then goes to ground after contact is initiated by Devlin. He quickly picks himself back up rather than appealing for a penalty.
The contact from Devlin appears to be upper body and there doesn’t appear any kind of challenge down below even though Madea’s legs give way.
Not all contact results in a foul or infringement and this is certainly a subjective decision. If the foul had had been awarded I would not have strongly disagreed and likewise, the on field decision is not clearly and obviously wrong.
Verdict: After a lengthy period of reflection, I’m going with CORRECT decision.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Scottish League Cup Second Round
19/08/23 The Rangers vs Greenock Morton
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 46th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Balogun challenges for header in box Outcome No decision Evidence https://twitter.com/Zeshankenzo/status/1693635688107737409?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Balogun challenges for header in box
Initial on field decision: No foul committed.
Balogun appears to put his hands on the shoulder of the Morton player and at full speed I can see why this might not have been given. Morton player doesn’t seem to make any attempt to jump and challenge for the ball, whereas Balogun clearly wants to win the header.
However, in slow motion you can argue that as Balogun is jumping, his arms on the shoulders of the attacker would prevent him from trying to jump even if he wanted to. Another subjective decision, which Rangers can consider themselves lucky with the outcome.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Although not a clear and obvious wrong decision, I feel if the referee had been asked to review on field, he would have changed his decision and awarded a penalty kick.
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC +0.59 xPts
19/08/23 The Rangers vs Greenock Morton
Incident 2
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 49th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Broadfoot goes down in box under Dessers challenge Outcome No decision; Penalty to Morton on VAR review Evidence (22) HIGHLIGHTS | Rangers 2-1 Greenock Morton | Beale's men progress in Viaplay Cup with comeback win - YouTube
At 1:46
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Broadfoot goes down in box under Dessers challenge.
Initial on field decision: no decision, upon VAR review, penalty award to Morton
Dessers has a big swing at a clearance and looks to catch Broadfoot. Again, can understand why on field ref might not have given the foul as the contact is minor at best and Morton player goes to ground pleading for the foul. Under slow motion review, there appears to be minor contact and when the clearance swing looks as clumsy as it does, I can understand why the penalty was given under review.
Verdict: CORRECT decision to award the penalty.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 56th Score At Time 0-1
Incident Free kick goes into Morton box. Outcome No decision; Penalty to TRFC on VAR review Evidence (22) HIGHLIGHTS | Rangers 2-1 Greenock Morton | Beale's men progress in Viaplay Cup with comeback win - YouTube
At 3:17
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: no decision; after VAR review, penalty award to TRFC
There appears to be a shirt pull on the Rangers player as he slides in at far post. In real time, it’s very hard to spot this infringement and can understand why it is not seen or given. The player doesn’t make much of an appeal either.
However, when reviewed in slow motion, you cannot deny the shirt pull on the left arm of the Rangers player happens and once this is brought to the referee’s attention, a penalty kick is the expected outcome.
Verdict: CORRECT decision to award the goal
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
20/08/23 Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Alan Muir Game Minute 57th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Taylor is fouled by Armstrong Outcome Foul to Celtic Evidence https://twitter.com/Zeshankenzo/status/1693306679863976198?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Taylor fouled by Armstrong.
Initial on field decision: Foul awarded to Celtic.
The severity of this kind of incident can sometimes be missed in real time but in slow motion, there appears to be some intent shown by Armstrong just after the ball has moved on as he leans in with the elbow. I feel this should have been a recommended-on field review for serious foul play.
Verdict. CORRECT to award the foul, INCORRECT sanction, sending off expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.35 xPts
20/08/23 Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Incident 2
Referee Alan Muir Game Minute 59th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Watkins scores for Kilmarnock Outcome Goal to Kilmarnock Evidence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXf3P71xMdg at 2:55 and https://twitter.com/Gastro_Celtic/status/1693286038104326165?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Watkins scores for Kilmarnock.
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded.
Offside decision here for the final pass, incredibly tight either way. From the footage presented I would say the Kilmarnock player just looks level and onside, but a marginal call either way.
Verdict: CORRECT decision to award goal
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Alan Muir Game Minute 92nd Score At Time 1-0
Incident Haksabanovic goes down in the box Outcome No decision Evidence https://twitter.com/GetInvolvedRef/status/1693290528127791521?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Haksabanovic goes down in the box.
Initial on field decision: No foul committed.
Celtic player goes down in box and claims a foul. He does seem to go to ground quite theatrically but this doesn’t stop me believing he was fouled. The defender seems to catch his right foot and doesn’t play the ball.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Foul and penalty kick expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.75 xPts
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
No major chances to the SPFL title race in terms of week two impacts.
The Rangers have 0.63 less points than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes.
Celtic lead by 3 points after 2 matches.
In terms of the League Cup, Greenock Morton did, remarkably, get a penalty at Ibrox. The Greenock side were probably in the topflight the last time that happened although it needed a VAR review to persuade Dickinson. However, they should already have had one and could a 0-2 deficit have been recovered?
At Kilmarnock there is no doubt Celtic laboured in the sun and on the plastic pitch against a well drilled Kilmarnock defence. However, they should expect equal treatment under the Laws and Alan Muir failed to send off the provider of the home sides’ goal. Indeed, Celtic were shorthanded because of the elbow to the head of Greg Taylor and the cross from the aggressor came from the vacant Celtic left back area.
The late penalty denial is inexplicable unless you remember Hampden 19th April 2015 versus Inverness Caley Thistle.
Muir received no help from VAR as far as we know, but transparency on who did not recommend the review would be helpful.
In two ties, Dickinson and Muir got 50% of the big call’s wrong despite VAR assistance.
But even more remarkable than all that is the utter lack of coverage and scrutiny over some of those big calls (guess which three?) in both the Viaplay Youtube highlights packages, or the local Scottish sports coverage. The BBC match report did not even mention Haksabanovic's take down in their report.
And away we go!