Honest Mistakes - January 2022
Been a while since we reviewed the SPFL league title influencing Honest Mistakes. Have I missed anything????
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler for keeping the wisdom flowing. The hiatus is all on me.
This article covers the games from match days 21 to 24 (17th January to end January 2022).
BACKGROUND - I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
17/01/22 Celtic vs Hibernian
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 25th
Incident Ball hits Doig’s hand in the box Outcome Penalty to Celtic Evidence Daizen Maeda Scores on Celtic Debut! | Celtic 2-0 Hibernian | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 01:47
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Celtic number 11 breaks into the penalty area and flicks the ball up in an attempt to cut inside. Doig, the covering defender tries to adjust and make the defensive block but only succeeds in making contact with the ball with his out stretched hand.
Clearly the ball hits the defender’s arm and it is not a deliberate handball.
So, we now must decide if this meets the criteria of IFAB Law 12: “making his body shape unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player’s body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised.”
There is always an element of opinion/interpretation to these types of hand ball offences, but for me the referee made the right call. Doig’s left arm is out straight and as the ball kicks up he seems to slightly extend it even further. I feel this is making his shape unnaturally bigger.
Verdict: Correct decision.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
18/01/22 Aberdeen vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 19th
Incident Hedges goes down under challenge from McGregor Outcome No decision Evidence Aberdeen 1-1 Rangers | Kent Red Card as Aberdeen Fight Back to Earn Draw | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict A pivotal moment here, as Hagi goes up the other end and scores moments after play is waved on by the referee. In real time my gut feeling was that a penalty kick was going to be awarded and after watching the replay numerous times, the expected outcome is still the same.
McGregor clearly has eyes only on the ball but Hedges flicks the ball first and as McGregor’s body moves through the air, the contact is actually down low. The keepers right leg catches Hedges on the left knee.
From the distance the referee is making the decision from, I suspect he is not giving the penalty as the focus would be on McGregor’s hands and the attempted punch, which connects with neither ball or player.
But in the basis of the lower body contact, a foul is committed.
As it was genuine attempt to play ball and would have been a penalty kick, McGregor should have received a yellow card for the challenge.
Verdict: Incorrect decision, foul and penalty should have been awarded
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC +0.47 xPts
(Explainer: At 0-0 in the 18th minute, had Aberdeen scored it would have added 0.6 to their xPts. However, it was a penalty with a constant chance of scoring of 0.79. Therefore 0.79*0.6 = 0.47 xPts).
Incident 2
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 73rd
Incident Ball hits Morelos on arm following a corner Outcome Penalty to Aberdeen Evidence Aberdeen 1-1 Rangers | Kent Red Card as Aberdeen Fight Back to Earn Draw | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict An Aberdeen corner is swung in and Ferguson goalward header hits Morelos’ outstretched left arm. The arm is in an unnatural extended position and the penalty itself is correctly awarded.
However, immediately prior to Ferguson heading the ball, he puts two arms in the back of the Rangers defender marking him and on doing so gains an unfair advantage by then having a clear uncontested header.
For me the referee should have seen this clear shove in the back and awarded a defensive free kick to Rangers.
Verdict: Incorrect decision, a defensive free kick should have been awarded prior to the handball occurring.
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC -0.67 xPts
(Explainer: At 0-1 in the 73rd minute, had Aberdeen scored it would have added 0.85 to their xPts. However, it was a penalty with a constant chance of scoring of 0.79. Therefore 0.79*0.85 = 0.67 xPts).
Incident 3
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 82nd
Incident Kent challenges Brown Outcome Foul to Aberdeen, YC to Kent and RC for 2nd booking Evidence Aberdeen 1-1 Rangers | Kent Red Card as Aberdeen Fight Back to Earn Draw | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Free kick to Aberdeen and Kent sent off for a 2nd cautionable offence.
As Brown goes to the clear the ball, Kent’s trailing foot catches the Aberdeen midfielder. Already being on a yellow card, Kent shows a little bit of naivety in making this type of challenge. Contact is minimal but it is his studs that catch Brown and I feel this falls within the boundaries of a reckless tackle, which is punishable by a caution.
Verdict: Correct decision. Foul and caution to Kent, resulting in his red card for two bookable offences.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
26/01/22 Hearts vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 35th
Incident Giakoumakis scores from O’Riley cross Outcome Goal to Celtic Evidence Heart of Midlothian 1-2 Celtic | Reo Hatate Scores First Celtic Goal! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Celtic
There’s a tight offside decision to be made here as Giakoumakis times his run to perfection. Looking at the freeze frame footage, I feel the Celtic player is level at the moment the pass is made.
Verdict: Onside, correct decision to award the goal.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 62nd
Incident McKay passes to Boyce who scores Outcome Goal to Hearts Evidence Heart of Midlothian 1-2 Celtic | Reo Hatate Scores First Celtic Goal! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Hearts
An even tighter offside decision to be made here. At the moment McKay passes the ball through to Boyce, one of the Celtic central defenders is deeper than his team mates. Looking at the freeze frame images, we are dealing in mere millimetres here.
To the naked eye I would say the assistant referee made the right call in keeping his flag down as Boyce’s body (excluding his lower arm which is not included when determining offside positioning) is level with the rear foot of the Celtic player.
Verdict: Onside, correct decision to award the goal.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 65th
Incident Bitton handles the ball (already on YC) Outcome Free kick to Hearts Evidence Heart of Midlothian 1-2 Celtic | Reo Hatate Scores First Celtic Goal! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Free kick awarded to Hearts
With Bitton already on a yellow card, he appears to deliberately handle the ball to prevent Hearts from attacking from their throw in in the Celtic half. The referee correctly gives the free kick for the hand ball but refrains from showing what would be a 2nd yellow card to Bitton.
Under Law 12, disciplinary action for unsporting behaviour, a caution for unsporting behaviour is the required sanction when a player handles the ball to interfere with or stop a promising attack.
I believe this incident falls into this criterion and as such Bitton was lucky not to receive the 2nd yellow and subsequent red card for his action.
Verdict: Correct decision to award free kick but Incorrect decision on Sanction - 2nd yellow card should have been issued to Bitton
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic +0.35 xPts
Incident 4
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 72nd
Incident Aerial challenge in Celtic box and ball appears to hit two arms Outcome Penalty to Hearts Evidence Heart of Midlothian 1-2 Celtic | Reo Hatate Scores First Celtic Goal! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Penalty kick awarded to Hearts
Following a cross into the box, Midfielder O’Riley is adjudged to have committed a handball offence and a penalty is awarded. In both real time and upon watching the slow-motion replay, I feel this is a rather harsh decision that goes against O’Riley.
Like previous handball decisions we have looked over the last few weeks, once we have established that there is no deliberate handball offence committed, we are then making a call on whether the player has touched the ball with their hand/arm when it has made the body unnaturally bigger and is not a consequence by the players movement for that specific situation.
O’Riley appears to react to the aerial challenge between his team mate and a Hearts player just a couple of yards away and attempts to read the flight of the ball from the header. As he is opening his body naturally to clear the ball, the ball actually hits his team mates hand accidentally. This slight contact changes the flight of the ball and deviates the spin of the ball onto O’Riley’s slightly extended arm. For me he is in a natural position as he shapes to kick the ball and cannot possibly react to the last second contact via his team mate.
Verdict: incorrect Decision. No handball offence and no penalty should have been awarded
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.67 xPts
(Explainer: At 1-2 in the 72nd minute, had Hearts scored it would have added 0.85 to their xPts. However, it was a penalty with a constant chance of scoring of 0.79. Therefore 0.79*0.85 = 0.67 xPts). The fact they missed is irrelevant to the xPts potential outcome of the decision at the time.
26/01/22 The Rangers vs Livingston
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 44th
Incident Lowry connects with ball in box and deflects it back to the goalkeeper from a corner Outcome No decision Evidence Rangers 1-0 Livingston | Super Sub Arfield Scores with Brilliant Lob! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No foul given
From a Livingston corner, Rangers player Lowry attempts to block/cushion a goalward header to his keeper using his chest and in doing so also extends his arm which results in the Livingston players appealing for a handball decision.
Although I can understand why the Livingston players are appealing for a penalty kick on the basis that Lowry clearly moves his body and his extended arm as he blocks the ball, I feel the right decision is made not to award foul.
The last replay of the incident through several players appears to show the ball hitting Lowry on the chest rather directly on to his arm.
Verdict: Correct Decision. No foul committed.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
29/01/22 Dundee United vs Celtic
Referee Euan Anderson Game Minute 81st
Incident Bitton and Glass connect and both fall to the ground Outcome Foul awarded to Dundee Utd and YC and RC awarded against Bitton Evidence Celtic 1-0 Dundee United | Late Abada Goal Secures Vital Celtic Win! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Free kick to Dundee Its and a 2nd caution for Bitton resulting in a red card.
The referee got this one wrong I’m afraid and I suspect it stems from his positioning during the build-up on this particular passage of play.
Immediately prior to the Bitton challenge (which on balance probably was the right decision to show a yellow card for preventing a promising attack), the referee misses a clear Infringement committed by Dundee Utd number 7 on Celtic number 3.
The referee is just a little too far from the incident and as a result (due to bad timing) two players run across his field of vision, just as the contact is made. I believe this prevents him from seeing the foul into the Celtic’s players back which sends the player to the ground and concedes possession.
Verdict: Incorrect decision. Foul should have been awarded to Celtic prior to the Bitton challenge, which would have negated the subsequent yellow card shown to Bitton.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.86 xPts
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Before the Winter Break the whistlers had a good run with all referred decisions being adjudged correct.
Maybe the refs went to Dubai, but it was a return to form over the rest of January.
Of 9 decisions referred, 5 were judged incorrect. Remarkably, both Glasgow clubs were penalised overall! This will alarm supporters of all other clubs which is, for balance, wholly appropriate as this is the population not yet offended by this exercise.
Expected Points Table
The Expected Points table is therefore much changed following these matches:
At the end of January, based on xPts, Celtic have 3.12 less points than expected due to Honest Mistakes and The Rangers have 1.55 more points than expected.
That is a 4.67 xPts swing.
Prior to the Derby on 2nd February, the gap was 2pts in favour of The Rangers.