Honest Mistakes - Game 25
All teams have now played the same number of matches as Celtic took on Dundee
This keeps us completely current as the league achieves symmetry and parity in fixture load with Celtic’s home game versus Dundee.
The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
05/02/25 Celtic vs Dundee
Incident 1
Referee: Calum Scott
Game Minute: 18th
Score At Time: 0-0
Incident: Sylla and Trusty challenge for a corner in Dundee’s box
Outcome: Free kick to Dundee changed to a penalty to Celtic upon VAR review.
Evidence: Celtic 6-0 Dundee | Maeda Hits Sensational Chip As Celtic Demolish Dundee | William Hill Premiership
At 0:14
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on-field decision: free kick to Dundee changed to penalty to Celtic on VAR review
From a corner kick delivered into the box there appear to be four players (two apiece) all jostling around the same space. In the ensuing challenges the referee sees a Dundee player go to the ground and feels he has been impeded so goes defensive free kick.
However, upon reviewing the replay you can see that the Celtic man doesn’t actually impede anyone but is actually dragged slightly backwards by Sylla. This contact is enough to knock him off balance so that he can’t get a clear header on the ball.
Not an obvious foul in real time and if no foul had been awarded either way, then I wouldn’t have been surprised. But once the free kick is awarded and the Trusty is shown to be the innocent party, I can understand why an on-field review of the incident is recommended.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Interestingly, the referee who thinks a penalty to Celtic is a foul to Dundee, is the same referee who thinks Cyriel Dessers collapsing in the box in the 97th minute was worthy of a penalty in the Scottish Cup.
So, much work to do, Mr. Collum.
This leaves the overall position thus:
Celtic have 0.87 MORE expected points, and The Rangers have 0.35 MORE due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. So, Celtic’s expected advantage is 0.52 xPts.
Celtic lead by 13 points after 25 games.