Honest Mistakes - Derby Special
Monday’s Derby saw a bug-ridden Celtic team clinch a point with a late Kyogo Furuhashi goal to maintain a nine-point margin over their city rivals.
Despite VAR and a global television audience, there was plenty for the Yorkshire Whistler to get into.
The impact of a call being incorrect can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
02/01/23 The Rangers vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 52nd Score At Time 1-1
Incident Sakala goes down in the box under challenge from Starfelt Outcome Penalty to TRFC Evidence Rangers 2-2 Celtic | Late Furuhashi Goal Denies Rangers Old Firm Victory | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:19
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Sakala goes down in the box under challenge from Starfelt.
Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Rangers
Relatively straightforward decision here as Starfelt slides in for a tackle and his trailing right foot clearly catches the right boot of Sakala and sends him to the ground. Starfelt is fully committed to the sliding challenge and does not get near the ball. A foul is committed.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the penalty kick.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 64th Score At Time 2-1
Incident Goldson blocks a Starfelt shot Outcome No decision Evidence Rangers 2-2 Celtic | Late Furuhashi Goal Denies Rangers Old Firm Victory | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 3:33
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Goldson blocks a Starfelt shot.
Initial on field decision: No foul committed.
From a Mooy corner, the ball is half cleared as far as Starfelt who then sees his shot charged down by Goldson. The ball appears to hit Goldson’s arm and so the question is then raised: Has a handball penalty offence been committed?
Goldson has very little time to react as the shot is fired at him from only a yard or two at most. He only raises his arms instinctively at the last second as he realises Starfelt’s shot is rising towards his face and the arm is more directly in front of where his face would have received the shot, as opposed to extended unnaturally wider.
I am satisfied this incident, therefore, is the normal expected body shape specific to that particular situation and so no foul has been committed.
Verdict: Correct decision to not award the foul
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
And remember, as much as his opinions may disappoint you, as I am sure will be the case for many this week, he is an independent and neutral professional expert.
If you look back over this series you will see his consistent interpretations of similar incidents.
This does not mean there are no trends to be discerned in the data when we consider the long term, of course.
Fortunately for Celtic, being consistently on the wrong end of handball decisions is not impeding their lead at the top of the table.
In terms of impact on the expected points picture, there is no change this week.
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 1.08 MORE points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 4.12 LESS.
A swing of 5.2 xPts.
Celtic lead by nine points after 20 matches.