Honest Mistakes - 2024/25 Launches it down the channel
Welcome back to Celtic By Numbers!
I have decided to move to Substack and am demising the WordPress site. All the articles have been transitioned over and are readable.
Thanks for reading Celtic By Numbers! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Please subscribe to keep up to date with all new content. Expect exciting developments over the next few months regarding my site and integration with The Huddle Breakdown work.
The Yorkshire Whistler has signed up for another season. And there may be a bonus ahoy. We are exploring the options to bring you deeper and challenging material relating to the most contentious decisions. Watch this space.
In the meantime, in the classic style, here is a review of the big calls in SPFL Premiership game week one as it relates to the top two clubs. I would love to extend this to other clubs should the league title become more than a two-team affair. Who knows, that may be closer than we think!
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
03/8/24 Heart of Midlothian vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee - Nick Walsh
Game Minute - 38th
Score At Time - 0-0
Incident
Cross hits Barron in the box
Outcome
No decision following VAR review
Evidence
Hearts 0-0 Rangers | Stalemate in Season Opener | William Hill Premiership (youtube.com)
At 2:02
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict
Initial on-field decision: No foul committed.
Hearts right winger goes to cross the ball and we see Barron attempt to block cross and in doing so it appears that is a question of a possible handball offence being committed.
The Rangers defender appears to spin his body as he slides to block the cross and in doing we see his right arm come up to cover his face. A somewhat natural protective instinct. Given the close proximity, lack of reaction time and acknowledging that his arm is bent to cover his face rather than extended outward significantly, I would say this incident falls just within natural body shape expected for that particular situation.
Therefore I’m comfortable with the no penalty decision.
Verdict: CORRECT decision.
Expected Points Outcome - No impact
04/08/24 Celtic vs Kilmarnock
Incident 1
Referee - Don Robertson
Game Minute - 85th
Score At Time - 3-0
Incident
McCrorie challenges Kyogo in the box
Outcome
No decision following VAR review (not no offside decision)
Evidence
Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 04/08/2024 - BBC iPlayer
At 14:30
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict
Initial on-field decision: No foul committed.
Kyogo reacts quickest to a clever free kick dinked into the box and as he gets a touch on the ball the Kilmarnock keeper clatters in to him.
My reaction initially was that a penalty was going to be given as the keeper clearly collides with Kyogo and gets nothing on the ball. The replays certainly back this up. Kyogo’s touch is good enough that if he could have possibly got on the end of that touch and had an effort on goal. McCrorie has every right to spread himself and block the shot but once he collides with Kyogo and doesn’t touch the ball, I feel he is lucky to come away without a penalty awarded against him.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Penalty kick the expected outcome
Expected Points Outcome - -0.08 xPts for Celtic
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
The first weekend of the season and the patterns now consistent over three previous campaigns persist. Fortunately, the impact was minimal.
Just a blip I am sure and we must hope Willie Collum and Jon Moss can direct and coach the refereeing cadre in a manner whereby European and international assignments of significance follow.
In terms of the overall position:
Celtic have 0.08 LESS expected points due to the impact of Honest Mistakes.
Celtic led by two points after one match.
Thanks for reading Celtic By Numbers! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.