Honest Mistakes 16/10/21
I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL..
I showed the impact on Expected Points gained / lost due to Honest Mistakes to the October International Break.
Today, we cover the games from Week 9 – 16th October 2021.
Reminder
I am indebted to the Yorkshire Whistler for providing expert judgement of these key potentially game changing moments and providing an unbiased assessment of the correct decision.
I do not always agree with his conclusions mainly because a) I am biased; b) I do not know the Laws of the Game intimately as he does; and c) I do not have experience of refereeing football matches.
You may also relate to those constraints. Be honest!
As described in the framework, where an in-game decision is deemed incorrect, there is an Expected Points impact for the “wronged” team and this is indicated.
I’ll keep a running tally.
Here we go.
16/10/21 Motherwell vs Celtic
Incident 1
Date 16/10/21 Referee Willie Collum Game Motherwell v Celtic Game Minute 17th
Incident In the build up to Celtic’s opening goal, Kyogo challenges for the ball in the Celtic half Outcome No foul Evidence https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0010tx1/sportscene-sportscene-saturday-202122-16102021
At 31m 37sec
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Difficult to be clear on this one with only the one piece of footage and no instant replay available.
On first viewing, I expected a foul to be given against Kyogo. He challenges for the ball by stepping across the Motherwell player and uses his leading left foot and it’s debatable if he contacts the ball at all as the Motherwell player is knocked off balance.
However, having replayed the footage at least a dozen times, there is a case to say that Kyogo gets the slightest of touches and the Motherwell player goes to ground very easily.
Verdict: Correct decision. No conclusive footage to overrule the initial no foul call.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Date 16/10/21 Referee Chris Fordyce Game Motherwell v Celtic Game Minute 55th
Incident Mugabe challenge on Turnbull Outcome No foul Evidence https://twitter.com/PaisleySteelman/status/1449834210261352451?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Mugabe commits to a sliding tackle challenge on Turnbull. Again, have watched this tackle multiple times over. At normal speed Mugabe seems to win the ball first and the contact with Turnbull is afterwards. In slow motion the challenge appears to be more of a lunge.
On reflection, I am comfortable with the in-game decision. A traditional hard, committed tackle coming in from a low trajectory and winning the ball first. I don’t believe this challenge endangered the players safety.
Verdict: Correct decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Date 16/10/21 Referee Chris Fordyce Game Motherwell v Celtic Game Minute 68th
Incident Bolingoli appears to handle the ball in the box Outcome No foul Evidence https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0010tx1/sportscene-sportscene-saturday-202122-16102021
At 36min 21 sec
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict As the Motherwell forward flicks the ball, the ball appears to catch Bolingoli on his left arm. All five Motherwell players in camera shot all instantly spin round and appeal for the penalty decision.
On replay I would agree that the ball hits Bolingoli raised arm and the referee’s decision should now be:
did Bolingoli make his body shape unnaturally bigger (which he did); and
was the bigger shape not a consequence of the players natural body movement for that specific situation (how the current law is worded).
For me, Bolingoli is caught slightly unawares by the bounce of the ball and raises his arm instinctively but I would say this is NOT part of his natural movement.
I believe the referee is partially unsighted by both the Motherwell forward and covering Celtic defender and if he has seen the contact, he would have awarded the penalty for handball.
I have also reviewed the Motherwell number 9’s contribution in the build up to this passage of play, looking for a potential handball prior to Bolingoli’s.
From the camera angles presented, as the Motherwell forward chests the ball with his arms extended, the ball bounces off his chest and I don’t believe there is any contact with the left arm before the ball then contacts Bolingoli. A different camera angle might justify reassessing this judgement, but I don’t see any deviation in the spin or movement of the ball once leaving his chest to suggest the left arm contacts the ball.
For me, no handball offence committed by the Motherwell forward.
Verdict: Incorrect decision. Penalty kick should have been awarded.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic +0.27 xPts
Explainer: A goal for Motherwell at 0-2 at home in the 68th minute is worth 0.35 xPts. However, as the result of this decision would have been a penalty, and the chances of scoring a penalty are always 77%, the xPts gets reduced accordingly (i.e. 0.35 x 0.77).
16/10/21 The Rangers vs Heart of Midlothian
Incident 1
Date 16/10/21 Referee Don Robertson Game TRFC v Hearts Game Minute
Incident Balogun challenges Boyce in The Rangers box Outcome No foul Evidence https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0010tx1/sportscene-sportscene-saturday-202122-16102021
At 3min 50sec
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict As the ball is played over the top to Boyce, Balogun gets his body between the man and ball and slightly leans into Boyce which allows his team mate to clear the ball.
For me, this is simply shrewd defending, Balogun is using his own body weight and position to make it difficult for Boyce to reach ball. There is minimal upper body contact, no push and no foul committed.
Verdict: Correct decision.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Date 16/10/21 Referee Don Robertson Game TRFC v Hearts Game Minute 35th
Incident Aribo challenge on Cochrane(?) Outcome Foul and YC to Aribo Evidence https://twitter.com/mstewart_23/status/1449468450427052032?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Aribo goes to challenge Hearts player for what appears to a 50/50 contest and catches Hearts player rather than win ball.
Got sympathy here for the referee as it happens very quickly. He has an unobstructed view for the challenge, but if anything, he might be a little too close to the action when making the decision.
When replayed in slow motion, Aribo leg is extended with studs showing, his foot goes over the top of the moving ball without any contact and catches the Hearts player on the shin.
Whilst I’m confident Aribo is attempting to win the ball, the height of the extended foot with studs showing, falls into the territory of “ excessive force that endangers opponents safety”..
Verdict: Incorrect decision. Foul correct but Aribo should have been sent off rather than cautioned.
Expected Points
Outcome
The Rangers +0.86 xPts
Incident 3
Date 16/10/21 Referee Don Robertson Game TRFC v Hearts Game Minute 86th
Incident Bacuna and Kingsley altercation on the touchline Outcome YC to Bacuna and Kingsley Evidence https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0010tx1/sportscene-sportscene-saturday-202122-16102021
At 10min 15sec
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict As ball leaves field of play for a throw in, slight coming together results in Kingsley pushing Bacuna in back, Bacuna and Kingsley then both raise an arm and push each other in lower neck area before being separated.
I feel referee got this spot on, it’s unsporting behaviour and referee shows a caution as such. Whenever arms are raised, a referee should be sense checking for the following violent conduct/ sending off criteria:
“a player who, when not challenging for the ball, deliberately strikes an opponent or any other person on the head or face with the hand or arm, is guilty of violent conduct unless the force used was negligible”
I don’t believe the conduct of either player falls into the above remit.
Verdict: Correct decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
As always, I personally didn’t agree on all counts but I bow to, and accept neutral, expert opinion on these matters.
Of the 6 incidents in the 2 matches, the referees seem to have got 4 out of 6 correct.
But the two incorrect decisions benefitted what used to be called the “Old Firm”. It’s a conspiracy, I tell ye!
Expected Points Table
These two wrong decisions impact the ongoing Expected Points totals thus:
At the moment, based on xPts, Celtic have 1.13 less points than expected due to Honest Mistakes and The Rangers have 2.1 more points than expected.
With only 4 points separating them in the league, that 3.23 xPts difference is looking important this early.
As always, a long way to go, and I expect parity by seasons end.