Hatate, O'Riley, Rogic, Turnbull. Who do you pick?

If all four of Hatate, O’Riley, Rogic and Turnbull are fit, which two do you pair with McGregor to form the midfield three for the next match?

Defending

Let’s start with the dirty stuff. Midfield is an allrounders game. Even the attacking midfielders have to press and compete in Postecoglou’s system.

The framework I use for pure defensive action, is Defensive Action Success Rate plotted with Possessions Won from Defensive Actions.

Many are surprised by O’Riley’s defensive capabilities. His strength is winning the ball back through timing and stealth. He isn’t one for crunching tackles, preferring to “nick” the ball back – his eye/foot coordination speed is special.

Consequently, he is easily the highest rated on pure defensive action measures.

Both Rogic and Turnbull profile like the more attacking midfielders (closer to “10s” than “8s”).

Hatate is a good allrounder in terms of defensive capability. As we saw against Ross County though, his tackling can be a little, err, excitable. So, his Defensive Action success is strong but he wins back possession from it less often than O’Riley.

It is remarkable Rogic and Turnbull were our 8s for the majority of the season!

Pressing Effectiveness

With thanks to Statsbomb for the data, we hear a lot about pressing and counter pressing.

Effectiveness can be shown plotting Pressures (number of times a player pressures an opponent / closes them down) and Pressure Regains – number of times the ball is won back through applying pressing.

O’Riley is again well ahead of the other midfielders by this measure both in the volume of pressures applied (over 20) and the number of regains this allows (4).

The other three midfielders are clustered together with Hatate being the most effective re-gainer and Turnbull the least effective overall presser.

Ball Progression

Here we look at Pack Passing – ability to break lines with forward passes – and Ball Carries (Pack Dribbles + Progressive Runs).

Rogic is the slight outlier in that his ball carrying ability at feet is demonstrably more effective that the other three.

He also has the lowest volume of Pack Passes. This is partly due to him playing further forward that the other three.

Turnbull leads the group in volume of Pack Passes BUT O’Riley leads in terms of the Packing Score – he has an uncanny ability to take defenders out the game leading to a higher Packing Score:

There is not a lot in it to be fair but O’Riley’s pack passing is the most effective in terms of taking opponents out the game.

O’Riley is well ahead in terms of chances created from Pack Passes. He created 1.42 per 90m with the next highest being Rogic on 0.99.

Creativity

Here we will consider Chances Created with the xA of those chances, both per 90m.

This covers all chances created from any phase of play. Both O’Riley and Turnbull are set piece takers and this will be skewing this chart. See below for chances and xA from open play.

What may surprise some is how low Hatate’s creative numbers are and indeed have been since day one. Perception blurred by spectacular goals, perhaps.

Here’s the same chart but only considering Open Play passes:

Turnbull’s numbers drop off quote a bit when set piece passing is removed. That is not to denigrate his value – every team needs good set piece delivery.

O’Riley also provides that but his creative passing from open play is the best of the bunch.

Bit of a theme developing here?

Goal Threat

For Goal Threat we’ll look at Total Shots and xG, so volume and quality of shots taken.

The new kids have not yet got up to the goal threat of Turnbull and Rogic who are well ahead on this criterion.

Rogic’s xG of 0.35 is the highest in his career since 17/18 season when he had 0.37. It had been declining steadily since. Rogic also has the best xG per shot of 0.14.

Turnbull has the highest volume of shots attempted, and the second highest xG / Shot of 0.1.

Both Hatate and O’Riley have xG / Shot less that 0.1 and less than 0.2 xG per 90m.

Summary

Where does this leave us?

The last game saw Rogic and Hatate paired, which may be an indicator of the starting Derby pairing.

However, Rogic went off injured and it is not clear if he will be fit. Turnbull had his first minutes in months and is probably an outsider to start given his lack of game time recently.

Hatate seems to be lagging in all the major departments but provides more defensive solidity.

And O’Riley? For me, he has to be one of the first names on the team sheet. Most effective defensively and creatively. We just need to see goals added to his game.

But it is complicated, given O’Riley and Rogic did not seem to work well – too similar and the shape did not seem secure.

Hence, I believe Postecoglou will go with Rogic and Hatate again if fit, but O’Riley and Hatate may start as they did in February if Rogic’s fitness is a doubt. For this match, their strength in midfield is more heft over craft.

The younger more defensively solid par may therefore be the smart choice.