Hatate: Myth, Maths, Magic

Data versus Supporter Sentiment. The definitive deep dive into the performance data of Reo Hatate, relative to his midfielder peers.

In ten years of collecting data, eight years of writing, and four years of podcasting about Celtic performance data, there have been very few instances where supporter sentiment and the data profile are a chasm apart.

Two instances of substance. (I believe the brewing dissonance around the new American centre-half Auston Trusty has been headed off for now.)

Both were recruited by Ange Postecoglou. Difficult bugger, mate.

The tale of Carl Starfelt was of partial redemption because of a much improved second season and his part in the delivery of another Treble.

Now, we are left with Reo Hatate.

If I were to characterise my understanding of supporter sentiment (and I must generalise and won’t claim to speak for everyone, obviously) it would be this.

He is the best midfielder at Celtic and indeed in the league. Yes, he may occasionally give the ball away because that is what risk-takers do. He opens up defences with magical through balls and can perform feats on the pitch others cannot.

At the most extreme end of the sentiment spectrum, I have seen him mentioned in the same breath as Lubomir Moravcik and Paul McStay.

Even a rational pundit like Chris Sutton states (without qualification) Hatate is Celtic’s best midfielder as if it is a verified fact. As we have found to our cost on the Huddle Breakdown, as far as a considerable section of the support is concerned you cannot challenge this. It is an article of faith, an orthodoxy of belief. The cult of Hatate.

As a normal fan, I love the wee guy. He does produce moments of magic that lift you off your seat. To see him find a pocket of space, receive the ball on the half turn, shimmy away from a couple of challenges with a swing of the hips, and then thread a pass through to Kyogo Furuhashi is always wondrous to behold. But, as ever, I like to anchor back to the complete performance data and align that to what I see with my own eyes.

The approach I am taking here is to assess the midfielders used since Postecoglou took over across a range of metrics considering defending, ball retention, deep build-up, creativity, goal threat, and overall attacking threat.

I’ll include the likes of Nir Biton and Callum McGregor as it deepens the comparison and provides legitimate outliers based on specificities of role, easing comparisons.