Good-Bad-Lucky-Unlucky - Away With the Fairies!
Ahead of the next match, and in advance of the run in to the league, let’s take a look at home the SPFL teams are faring as regards goals for and against versus expected.
Yes, it is time for the good/bad, lucky/unlucky graph!
What does all that mean?
Here are the definitions:
Bad and Unlucky – not only are you creating low quality chances and conceding high quality chances, you are not catching the breaks either. That is, you are scoring less than expected and conceding more than expected.
Bad and Lucky – you underlying performances are poor but you are scoring more and conceding less than expected.
Good and Lucky – You are producing high quality chances and not conceding likewise, and more shot are going in than expected and less being conceded.
Good and Unlucky – your performances are good but you’re not getting the rub of the green.
For comparison purposes, the situation in November can be found here.
At that time Celtic were firmly the unluckiest team in terms of being furthest from their expected goal difference.
Here is the picture today.
Celtic continue to significantly underperform their goal difference expected – plenty of scope for positive variance.
The Ibrox rivals have also slipped from being Good/Lucky to being Good/Unlucky – after 18 months of positive variance, have the luck pixies cast their spell?
Motherwell are just bad and getting unluckier!
Hearts continue to benefit from positive variance to the extent 3rd place is virtually theirs.
Aberdeen and Hibernian have both improved under new management but are not yet reaping the rewards – expect an end of season improvement?
The fall from grace of St Johnstone is spectacular. Team of the Season last year with two trophies, and now lucky to be last!
What will it mean for the run in?
I have no idea but apparently Lindsay the Luck Fairy wears green and white hoops.
It’s in the stars I tell ye.