Giakoumakis, Juranovic and Occam's Razor
Novacula Occami or Occam’s Razor is a principle that the simplest explanation is often the most likely to be correct.
It is a principle applied to problem solving.
The problem many Celtic supporters are trying to solve is why the club would seemingly sell two valued first team players so cheaply.
Firstly, global go-to transfer guru Fabrizio Romana has Giorgos Giakoumakis on his way to Japan (oh, the irony) for a “package” of four million Euros. A wag on Twitter (apologies to that account for me not remembering who it was) stated he’ll be at Celtic in two years. But, plot twist, MLS side Atlanta is also trying to sign him.
Last week we had stories of Josip Juranovic, Croatia’s first choice right back and World Cup standout, leaving the Scottish Champions for Italian club Monza (nice Subbuteo kit, but who?) for a figure around £7 million after an initial loan. Whilst that specific deal appears to be off, the likely transfer figure raised eyebrows amongst many.
Transfer fees are of course, a tricky business. What will the market pay? Or, equally importantly, what conditions exist within contracts?
The growth and usage of transfermarkt.co.uk even extends to the day-to-day operations within the world of professional football we are told. In the UK, the likes of Stefan Bienkowski and team come up with valuations for players based on judgement. These numbers reflect the market value of a player all else being equal with no regard for length of current contract or any clauses – essentially what a player would be worth in a free market. Great responsibility should be placed around their valuations, therefore.
As it is judgemental and the valuations are subject to the knowledge base and biases we all have (yes, even Scottish referees), the numbers can be fanciful. A quick comparison of the relative squads of Celtic and The Rangers is entertaining of nothing else (Glenn Kamara seven and a half million Euros to Matt O’Riley five million Euros; Alfredo Morelos ten million Euros to Kyogo Furuhashi six million Euros – lol). For balance, they seem to have adjusted them recently after much ridicule.
For what it is worth, they have Juranovic valued at nine million Euros and Giakoumakis at five million Euros.
So, even by transfermarkt’s speculative valuations, the mooted sums for the two seem low.
What the hell?
Public Data
Let us take a look at what we know as opposed to what we speculate about.
Contract Negotiations
The Scottish media reported on 15th November 2022 that Juranovic had rejected an offer of a new contract. The news was broken by Stephen McGowan, a reporter at the Daily Mail with seemingly strong links inside Celtic Park.
Following on from 1st December were reports that Giakoumakis had, similarly, rejected the offer of a new contract from the club.
Transfer Activity
Celtic completed the singing of Canadian World Cup star Alistair Johnston, predominantly a right back on a right back, on 3rd December 2022. This was a mere two weeks after the Juranovic contract story broke.
On the face of it, and given the £3.5m fee, Johnston was not acquired to be third choice after Juranovic and Anthony Ralston.
Celtic were also reported as being in contact with the South Korean internationalist Cho Gue-sung. News of this started to appear from 30th November, the same day the Giakoumakis contract impasse was reported. Subsequent reports stated contact had been made prior to the World Cup started in mid-November with his club Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors.
Whilst this transfer appears to have fizzled out amidst interest from other clubs, rumours of the player holding out for another deal/better league, and his club raising the asking price following Cho’s successful World Cup, it seems Celtic are actively in the market for a striker.
Razorlight
Back to what this may all mean, through the filter of the most likely scenario.
Celtic seem to have offered new contracts to players who each have three and a half years left on their contracts.
Why would Celtic negotiate new contracts in this situation?
Neither player cost a lot in terms of initial transfer fees. Juranovic was a reported £2.75m from Legia Warsaw. This seemed a bargain for an established Croatian internationalist.
Similarly, Giakoumakis cost a reported £2.4m from VVV Venlo of the Netherlands. Although VVV Venlo had suffered a relegation from the Dutch top flight, this, again, represented great value for the top scorer in the Eredivise.
It seems neither player is on the top of the wage structure. The salarysport.com has Juranovic on £16k per week and Giakoumakis on £12k. I am sure actual remuneration packages are more complex than a basic weekly wage, but even allowing for some variance, that is likely a way short of top earner status.
Bear in mid Juranovic is now 27 years-old and Giakoumakis 28. Their respective next contracts are likely to be the last chance for a lucrative package as it will take them into their 30s and likely wage regression.
Given the above, is the most likely scenario that both were brought in to the club on good but not top wages mitigated by buyout clauses? After nearly 18 months and with both proving their value, the club has tried to renegotiate contracts to improve wages and remove any buy out clauses. This has been unsuccessful for whatever reasons, and now the club are actively recruiting to replace.
That means that whatever initial buy out clauses were extant are all other clubs need to meet to purchase the players.
From Ange Postecoglou’s perspective you are either committed or you are not. If you are not, you are out. As an aside, the selection of Juranovic versus Kilmarnock in the League Cup Semi Final was therefore a plot twist in this regard.
Summary
There will be, I am sure, lessons to be learned for the club.
However, on the face of it, Celtic have had the services of two experienced international players for 18 months relatively cheaply, and may make a modest profit on sale. Given their respective ages, maybe it is our expectations as supporters that need to adjust.