Forrest Maintains An Impressive Body Of Work

A trio of personal awards supplemented the team Treble Treble as Forrest completed the most successful season of his career. Arguably most importantly, he is also the Celtic By Numbers Bhoy of the Season!

2018/19 Appearances

There was a time Forrest was considered injury prone. He has now completed over 30 league games in two seasons in a row, the first time he has achieved that number of appearances.

Following 58 appearances last season, Forrest appeared in 56 of Celtic’s 63 matches. His importance to the team is reflected in the fact that his overall minutes played increased and he completed 90 minutes 31 times. At 27, and with the likes of Lustig, Boyata and Izaguirre departing, Forrest is a senior member of the squad.

2018/19 Scoring Threat

Forrest matched his 17/18 output of 17 goals. Previously 9 had been a season high so he has raised the bar significantly. In addition, he scored his first international goals ending the season on 5 having never previously scored for Scotland in 6 previous campaigns.

Numbers are per 90m

His overall scoring rate has continued to be consistent around the goal every three matches mark. This is slightly above his xG. Strangely he had less shots per 90m this season. Also, his shot selection regressed as more shots were outside the box and less inside. Nevertheless, his Shot Accuracy improved very slightly. Shot Conversion rates were broadly maintained over the last two seasons. Encouragingly, his Pack Receive rate is up. This measures a player’s ability to be available for, and successfully receive, forward passes that take opponents out the game. Overall it is a sea of Yellow. But consider his record over the last two seasons. From never previously scoring more than 9 goals, he has achieved 17 in each of the last two seasons. What the preponderance of Yellow shows is that he has achieved consistency of scoring threat.

2018/19 Ball Progression / Creativity

Forrest led the squad with 19 assists, 1 ahead of McGregor. Last season it was 11. I am not sure there are many other players in Europe with 17 goals and 19 assists.

Numbers are per 90m

Not surprisingly, his assist rate has more than doubled. This is perhaps unsustainable as his xA went up by half that amount. 19 may be the high watermark. He isn’t completing any more passes, and is completing less of them. This may be an indication of putting more risk into his passing. This is backed up by the Pack Pass rate increasing 25% - more forward passes that take out opponents. However, despite the big increase in assists, he created less chances. And it took 1 more pass to create a chance compared to last season. Forrest is attempting less dribbles and has been less successful with those he has attempted. But he is trying more crosses meaning more are successful and more failed. Overall, the trend is perhaps earlier passing, with more risk. He has turned underperformance against xA to over performance.

2018/19 Attacking Threat

Numbers are per 90m

Forrest’s overall Scoring Contribution of 36 Goals and Assists was second only to Edouard. His sheer productivity has increased 18%. In line with this his xSC has improved but he is overperforming that suggesting a regression as he has carried that for two seasons. He is creating more Scoring Contributions per minute and per possession. This is a Forrest perhaps simplifying his game and being more focussed and dangerous for it.

2018/19 Defending

Forrest has always been the most defensively productive of the attacking midfielders and forwards.

Numbers are per 90m

This season has seen a regression in defensive performances. DASR% is down 2 points although he wins back possession from defensive actions to the same rate as last season. There are slightly less challenges won and more unsuccessful ones. There is very little change overall but the trend supports the view Forrest has been asked to focus his game more on attacking output.

Summary

Forrest has put back to back seasons together achieving double figure goals and assist tallies. The report shows not much change to last season which isn’t criticism, it is recognition of consistency to a high level. There is evidence of tweaks to his game. Less defensive actions, less take-ons or dribbles and more crosses and pack passes indicates a more direct player. He is one of only five players to average more than 5 possessions in the opposition box per 90m. This simplified Forrest is more of a goal threat. The Expected Goal and Assist numbers suggest he will do well to maintain the current productivity. But the Bhoy of the Year deserves great credit for delivery on a consistent basis.