Familiar Failings As Celtic Crash Out
Elimination from the Champions League will cast a long shadow over Celtic’s season. Much remains to play for, of course, but the errors here need to be openly discussed and avoided in future.
I will say from the outset I have been a consistent critic of Celtic’s squad management over a number of seasons. This is not that article and will be for another day once the window closes.
I want to concentrate on on-pitch matters today, focussing on the managerial and player performances versus Cluj.
Team Selection
My first reaction on seeing the line up was surprise. The only logical configuration of those players, to me, would have been a 3-5-2 arrangement. Such a shape would not be advisable against a team that concentrates on 4-3-3 in attack, hitting long diagonals to wide players.
In the end it transpired it was the usual 4-2-3-1 but with McGregor realigned to left back to accommodate Ntcham in central midfield.
The pairing of Ajer and Simunovic, with £7m man Jullien on the bench, left no sinister implications in my mind. Ajer and Simunovic had been consistently picked by Lennon through last season’s run in, despite the availability of the excellent Benkovic. It was clear to me that this pairing had been earmarked for the Champions League Qualifying campaign, with Jullien to be integrated into the team over the early part of the season. It made sense.
The decision to shove McGregor to left back was, however a poor one for a number of reasons. It must be a devastating blow to Bolingoli’s confidence not to be trusted in such a tie. As I had covered on Twitter, his performances had been greatly exaggerated in terms of focussing on the negatives. He seems a player who needs time and confidence to grow. Cluj are not such as technically gifted side that he risked being over-exposed.
Secondly, what message did this send to McGregor that he could be moved around to accommodate another player? McGregor through excellence and persistence, has earned the right to take his place in the heart of the team where he can dictate the play and keep the ball recycled.
Finally, there was no need to take risks. Celtic only needed a 0-0 to go through against an inferior but well organised and highly motivated side. The decision to change the make-up of the team despite a very even first leg in trying conditions, was unnecessarily risky.
In fact, it echoed the defeat to Maribor under Deila. Drawing 0-0 at half time with Celtic through at that result, Deila, perhaps responding to crowd unrest at a perceived lack of chances (there was nothing happening in the game), eventually moved to 4-2-4 bringing on firstly Commons then Boeriggter when Lustig was injured. At 0-0 and a nothing game, space opened up for their sucker punch goal and Celtic were out. A dull 0-0 would have sufficed.
McGregor
Such a fine footballer, he is not unfamiliar with the left back role. But it tends not to be in big matches. Against Hamilton Academical in December 2017, he completed a remarkable 149 passes from left back, dominating the game. With 20 Pack Passes, he was the most inventive passer from this position.
Similarly, against Ross County in March 2018, he passed over 100 times again whilst getting into the opposition box 7 times and creating 2 chances.
He even played there in a 3-1 end of season win at Tynecastle without anything like the personal ball dominance.
However, everyone remembers his only stint in that position last season, a harrowing 0-1 defeat at Ibrox. His personal performance was not the worst on a very bad day where Rodgers seemed to be making points to the board about the squad strength (sound familiar?).
In this match, the decision to play McGregor at left back looked a poor one from the start.
On 8m a cross from the left caught McGregor on his heels and he was wrong side of the attacker. McGregor made contact with the Cluj player and the ball went behind as the player hit the turf. It looked very clumsy and a possible penalty but a goal kick was given.
On 10m a nervous miss control cedes possession in his own defensive third and he has to foul to prevent a break.
By the 12th minute McGregor has completed 5 passes and lost 5 – very un-McGregor like
On 14m he was caught under the ball from another diagonal leading to a crossing chance for Cluj.
All this culminated in the 27th minute goal. Celtic allow a long throw to progress play to the goal line; Brown does not shift quick enough to block the cross; McGregor is again caught in a poor position and doesn’t jump, pinned in as Deac’s back post header goes in off the woodwork.
What happened after that is that he, intelligent player that he is, settled into a solid game.
By half time McGregor led the side in ball recoveries (10) and led the team by winning possession back 4 times in his own defensive third. Furthermore, he had won 3 tackles outright, 2 more than any other player.
McGregor is such a gifted player, he can do a good job at left back, and eventually did. Unfortunately, it took 30 minutes for he and the team to settle, and by that time Celtic were a goal down. The cost of this strange decision.
What we do not know is the opportunity cost of not having him dictating tempo from midfield.
Game Management
Criticism was levelled at Lennon, post-match, on his game management. How often have Celtic led twice to end up defeated?
The way the match went, there were chances for Celtic, especially in a dominant opening to the second half. Having secured a 2-1 lead, it is easy, in retrospect, to say that Lennon should have shut the game down at that point. But with 30 minutes to go he seemed to reason that Celtic needed, and were capable, of scoring a third and killing the tie. Given the game state, and the way Celtic were playing at that point, I cannot disagree with Lennon’s thinking. Between half time and the 68th minute, Celtic had 9 shots to 1 by Cluj and scored 2.
It wasn’t until the 74th minute that Brown inexplicably handled to let them back into the game via a penalty. Lennon might have sensed the slight momentum swing around 70m where Celtic’s incessant attacking slowed slightly, as the trigger to freshen it.
But even after the calamitous penalty, Celtic were 3-2 up another 2 minutes later. Edouard and Christie thrillingly reimagining the spirit of the Leipzig winning goal with a series of 1-2s.
That should have been the trigger for Lennon to shut the game down, immediately after that goal. Bring Bitton on, sit him in front of the back four allowing the other central midfielders to concentrate on stopping crosses. Bitton could then have supplemented the centre to deal with any high balls.
It was these nuanced understandings of game momentum swings Rodgers had a high degree of perception for. Lennon missed his moment and was then playing catch up.
Individual Errors
The history of Celtic European pain is one of a long string of individual defensive errors. This match was no different.
I’ve covered the Brown and McGregor errors already for the opening goal and the Brown brain freeze to concede the penalty (which incidentally followed Bain fumbling a cross to concede the corner leading to the cross).
The third goal saw Cluj rewarded for a rare piece of coordinated link up play. A team that passes with 56% completion, and only connected with 133 open play passes all match, put together a quality move.
Susic’s inside pass to Tucudean took out McGregor and four midfielders. Ajer was touch tight on Tucudean (arguably too tight) but the striker effected a clever flick pass inside Ajer for Paun to move onto. Paun’s shot was hard and low and swerving away from Bain. I can’t be too hard on Bain as he had to reach a ball moving away from him at pace and he got a strong arm and pushed it wide as he should.
The fault here lay with Elhamed. Whereas Omrani was on his toes and hopeful of a rebound, the Israeli was on his heels. There was no challenge as the Frenchman lashed in the near post rebound.
Cluj Breaks
I mentioned in my leg one review, Cluj Culture Clash, how the Romanians had little interest in accurate build up play. Their game plan, rigorously executed, was to hit diagonals and crosses and play off rebounds, knock downs, ricochets and second balls. Hope for the breaks.
And whereas in the first leg 20 unsuccessful crosses was testimony to an indiscriminate and moribund approach, they got the breaks here. Of course.
For the first goal, Omrani never once looks up when running on to the long throw. He can’t possibly know who is in the box or where they are as he never glances up. As the ball sits up for him, he simply laces it into the box. It fell perfectly for Deac in the middle of the box. To be fair, the Cluj side had another two midfielders breaking into the box – they know what to expect.
Similarly, for the 4th (ultimately unnecessary) goal, Djokovic simply lumps it overhead to get the ball forward. He has his back to play so cannot see what is ahead. It falls perfectly for Tucudean behind a disorganised Celtic “defence” for an easy run it.
This combination of Celtic errors and lucky opposition breaks resulted in four goals. This is too many to concede and expect to recover to the next round.
Reasons to be Cheerful?
Lennon was predictably bullish after the game. And he is right to think (despite his aversions to “stats”) that the key numbers show Celtic really should have won this game easily.
Cluj once again successfully made a mess of the game and shunted Celtic out of their controlled passing rhythm. But to a significantly lesser degree than in Cluj. Celtic dominated possession, and although pressed into a very high 105 unsuccessful passes, were still more accurate than their “hit and hope” opponents.
It its remarkable that ever single shot Cluj had ended up on target – all 9.
But Celtic managed to take 18 out of 22 from inside their box.
And this is reflected in the chances created. Celtic actually underperformed their xG despite scoring 3. To provide context, here are the last occasions Celtic registered such high xG in the last two seasons:
Such a high xG is usually reserved for low quality opposition and results in thumping wins. The good news is Celtic’s attack is functioning well.
Celtic had an overwhelming 41 possession in the box to 7 by Cluj. Cluj had more shots on target than possession in Celtic’s box.
Celtic passed forward more effectively as seen by the Team Impect score and created 18 chances to 7.
As we have seen it is the defence that is the issue.
Both sides managed 5 defensive errors, but Celtic’s were punished.
Despite the possession, field position and number of shots, both had 5 shots requiring saves.
This was also a game where possession turned over frequently highlighted in the huge number of recoveries, 110 by Celtic.
Play this game with these stats 10 times and I suspect Celtic win 8 out of 10! No consolation now though.
Christie
I will leave you on a positive and highlight Christie’s performance.
This was a truly outstanding individual display up there with his turn against Leipzig last season.
Here are the highlights:
There are some unique numbers in here.
I’ve never seen someone create 10 chances in one match. The highest season average I have recorded, and the only player to average more than 3 per 90m, was Griffiths last season. As here, corner taking provides some of the reason for this (2 of Christie’s chances were from corners).
He was fouled 10 times. Again. I’ve never seen a player fouled so much in one game. Cluj targeted him yet he still exerted such high influence on the game. Christie averaged 2.18 times fouled per 90m last season, one of the highest in the squad.
To play at 10 where you often don’t get much of the ball, yet have the second highest Usage Rate of 13% (% of all Celtic on ball actions) is unusual.
I don’t recall a player providing 6 passes into the Danger Zone in a single match either.
Oh, and with 16 recoveries, he was the Celt with the most times picking up loose balls – speed, anticipation, aggression.
As a performance (he scored as well by the way), this will take some topping.
Not surprisingly he was my Bhoy of the Match. This is the 4th in 8 matches so far this season.
Summary
Another painful European exit amongst many for Celtic. All the numbers were in Celtic’s favour – they really should have won.
But poor team selection, game management that lack perception, and individual errors proved costly.
Systemic squad miss-management is for another day.