Expected Goals and Assists - November 2018
Yesterday I provided the Goals and Assists totals per player. Today I look at Expected Goals and Expected Assists. These measure the quality of the chances provided and created in terms of the probability of a goal being scored. 27 games into the season, we have a good sample of data to compare.
All values are averages per 90m to smooth out the variations in playing time. All players who have appeared in 4 or more matches are included.
Dembele was having a good start to the season and it will be a challenge for anyone to come close to his 0.742 xG per 90m. The next highest is Edouard with 0.532. He is also quite creative and his tendency to play from deep and wide left suggests he is better as a second forward rather than a target man striker. So, there will be a Dembele sized gap for the rest of the season!
Griffiths has the 2nd highest xA mainly due to him taking corners. He has created 26 of his 37 chances from corners or set pieces.
Which means Christie is massively out performing the rest of the squad in terms if chance creation from open play. He is creating 0.554 xA per 90m. And he is even taking that into international football, creating 2 goals and 1 secondary assist against Albania for Scotland.
Christie’s numbers are a marvel as I explored in more detail in All Action Man. He has only played the equivalent of 7.74 full matches to it is quite a high rate to sustain over a season.
Forrest is sustaining a productive season as we know with his pal Rogic not far behind.
I expected Tierney’s numbers to be higher. Perhaps if more than 18 of the 111 crosses were accurate this xA rate would rise. The next highest number of crosses attempted is Forrest on 62.
Finally, and quietly, Johnston in his sporadic appearances has posted decent numbers, only just behind Sinclair. Perhaps another youth success is on the horizon?
I’ll keep updating this during the season.