Edouard Belies Fee Pressure

Edouard’s first season as a regular starter in his career ended with a Cup Final and Treble Treble winning double against Heart of Midlothian. The £9 million man has arrived.

2018/19 Appearances

After 17 appearances for FC Toulouse and 30 for Celtic on loan last season, Edouard has been the number one striker for the Champions following his record-breaking move.

No longer a prospect or squad player, he is appearing in all the games that matter for Celtic.

2018/19 Goal Threat

Edouard was Celtic’s overall top scorer with 21 goals and 2 penalties.

Numbers are per 90m

So, why the Red Sea? The only Green is more Shots Outside the Box, which is probably not a good thing. Answer: regression to the mean. I mention it a lot, especially as regards performances in relation to Expected Goal (xG) and Assists (xA). Simply, Eduoard’s return last season, in more limited minutes, was always going to be difficult to maintain. He scored at the rate of 0.76 goals per 90m but the xG model suggested 0.602 was more likely. 48% of his On Target Shots and 22% of all Shots resulted in goals. Again – very high rates that are difficult to maintain. You can see his xG of 0.591 matches almost exactly his goals return of 0.6. He still has a squad leading All Shot Conversion rate of 18%. And 44% of shots on target result in goals. There are no problems here. But there are areas for improvement. He took less shots inside the box and more outside and should work on reversing that trend. Also, the increase in number of Shots Blocked is indicative of sub optimal shot selection. Finally, his Pack Receive data is down. This is indicative of forward movement, finding space and taking and controlling forward passes. It is down on last year and I’d want to see that improve. But otherwise the fundamentals of Celtic’s top scorer are there to be built on in what will likely be only his second full season as a regular starter at professional level.

2018/19 Ball Progression and Creativity

Numbers are per 90m

This is what progress looks like! Despite not having any more possession than last season, Edouard’s Assist rate has gone up markedly as has Expected Assists (xA). Although he is getting less assists that expected as per last season. He is also creating more chances, at the rate of 1 for every 11 completed passes. Played as a number 9 more often that not his dribbling opportunities have not increased. Had he been able to form the expected partnership with Dembele coming in from the left that would have been one to look out for. Similarly, his crossing rates are very low as you might expect from someone operating centrally.

2018/19 Scoring Contribution

Numbers are per 90m

As can be seen, last season in far fewer appearances, Edouard massively out performed his xSC. From an expected Goals and Assists rate of 0.757 per 90m, he actually achieved 1.03. This season, his Scoring Contribution has fallen to 0.89 per 90m but his xSC has risen to 0.853. He is creating better chances and taking better scoring chances. So, progress.

Summary

When is a negative a positive? When you massively out perform your expected assists and goals and see a regression to the mean whilst producing good output over more appearances. In short: Edouard is now Celtic’s main striker despite the fee and not having previously been the number one striker in his career. A new manager may mean new systems and some adaption from the young Frenchman. But the lack of press comment on Edouard tells you that the burden of being the record Celtic incoming transfer has not impaired performances (you’d hear about it if it had). Looking forward to more.