Edouard and the "Finishing" Myth
One of the many insights xG gives us is that great goal scorers are defined by two key attributes. They take a lot of shots from good positions. The lack of deviation over time from xG also shows us that the concept of “finishing” is a bit of a myth. Cristiano Ronaldo is the most glaring example of this. He has virtually never scored more goals than his xG would suggest but clearly scores a huge number of goals. Why? Because his physical and mental attributes get him into great positions from which to shoot. And he has high quality teammates to provide chances. Nothing to do with “finishing”.
We can assess both aspects of that. By taking the average xG of each shot, this tells us the average shot quality – is the player taking shots from good positions?
Shots per 90m tells us about volume of shots – if you don’t shoot you don’t score. Unless you are shooting from stupid positions (far out, wide, with the whole defence in front of you etc). Now what is the French translation for that? I won’t ask Sky.
Celtic Player’s Average xG / Shot and Shot Volume
It is not surprising that Celtic’s goal king Edouard is the sole tenant in the quadrant of virtue. He takes more shots that any other player and his xG per shot is behind only Sinclair and Elyounoussi.
Of course Edouard is an all round forward and as I showed in Elite Edouard, his contribution to chance creation and shot taking makes him a more holistic threat than Dembele was. He still has scope to become a better goal scorer – his deep and creative play comes at the cost of a lower shot volume than an out and out scorer.
When Griffiths scored 40 goals, he averaged 6.16 shots per 90m compared to 3.95 from Edouard this season.
Sinclair’s is a small sample but increasingly under Rodgers he was taking up central positions close to goal to get shots off. Elyounoussi looks like a good replacement for the Englishman - when fit.
McGregor scored a fantastic goal against Motherwell (from inside the box and central - thumbs aloft!) but in general he is taking low quality shots and not very often. As he plays a deeper role these days that is perhaps understandable. Rogic has a similar profile which for a 10 is perhaps not optimal.
Forrest and Christie are getting closest to Edouard and it is not surprise therefore that they are 2nd and 3rd in the actual goals chart (real goals - remember them??).
Ntcham has always attracted my wrath regarding shot selection. There was a moment against Ross County recently that he shot from well outside the box, with his weaker left foot, following a corner meaning the whole Ross County team was between him and the goal. It is pointless to shoot from that scenario. It simply and cheaply loses possession. He takes the most shots of any midfielder (3.58 per 90m) but has the lowest xG per shot at a measly 0.058 xG per shot.
Conclusion
This view of goalscoring effectiveness is another by which Edouard shines. However, he has room for improvement and we can hope for a greater volume of shots from him.
Elyounoussi is definitely promising having the highest xG per shot in the squad.
The coaching opportunities for Ntcham (and Johnston), should be obvious.