Copenhagen: Dream to Reality
By James Dailey
Recency bias is the human tendency to mentally overweight memories from the recent pass more so than those from longer ago. Odsonne Edouard has been absolutely brilliant since the winter break, and I documented how brilliant in the recent piece I wrote with an early look at the effectiveness of the 3-5-2 formation. Edouard is at an age in which development can take place in relative explosions (I’d argue his development has been a near constant incremental improvement – Ed) , so it is difficult, if not impossible, to determine whether this has been a stretch of particularly good form, or whether he has jumped to a higher level within his development curve. Celtic also have the added uncertainty surrounding Leigh Griffiths, who has also performed at an excellent level upon his recent return, but again the sample size is small, and the level of opponents must also be considered.
As great as Edouard has been in the SPFL, his level of performance in Europe has not yet stood out. I believe there are few ways to consider this given Edouard’s age. It is normal for players’ level of performance to be lower in Europe versus what they produce domestically, as the level of opponents are generally higher. However, Edouard’s stats in Europe since arriving at Celtic are dramatically below what he’s achieved this season in the SPFL.
As I will be doing throughout this series, I’ve calculated a benchmark of the primary players at each position group for the other 15 teams in Celtic’s Europa League pot. In this table, you’ll see Edouard’s relative drop in output in Europe vs what he’s done domestically this season (all data via Wyscout from 2015/2016 season forward):
There are obvious disparities between the level of league for each player and team, so this is not a “perfect” sample. For example, this sample includes Rashford and Lukaku, who are playing at higher level leagues and whose European games have primarily been in the Champions League group stage. However, I believe the sample still offers some valuable context for evaluation of Edouard and Griffiths.
European Level
Edouard’s level of domestic dominance is at the very high end of the sample for both xG and xA- particularly for his age. However, his output in Europe so far during his time at Celtic is dramatically lower. Evaluating his performances in Europe between last season, xG 0.28 and xA 0.10, versus this season, xG .36 and xA 0.19, shows clear improvement but still steeply below what he has done domestically.
The optimist in me wants to focus on this as a reason as to why another year at Celtic may be good for his development! Also, there is the chance that he could be amid a “breakout” just in time for the upcoming tie versus Copenhagen and the remainder of the European campaign.
This next table provides further context, as it shows Griffiths and Dembele’s performance levels in the SPFL versus their levels in Europe with Celtic (since 2015/2016 season):
Now before anyone begins equating these two players, Dembele’s sample is significantly overweight with the two Champions League group stages under Rodgers, while Griffiths is weighted heavily with qualifiers and the Europa League.
Copenhagen
Copenhagen have played primarily in a 4-4-2 the past few seasons, including during this season’s Europa League group stage. They do not score very much on a relative basis, and their strikers are more pure finishers rather than overall creators. For some context, their domestic record this season is an average xG of 1.60 vs 1.14 conceded. They play the ball in the air quite a bit and scoring off set pieces and crosses are primary methods for chance creation. Here is a comparison showing domestic league games plus all European competitions:
And before we get overconfident, Copenhagen appear to be a very disciplined defensive team and could offer many of the same challenges as Cluj if they choose to deploy similar tactics. Our midfield has struggled handling teams (Cluj and Livingston) that play direct and rely upon winning 2nd balls, and Copenhagen’s midfield four are more youthful and athletic than either of those teams. The apparent departure of Sotiriou is a blow to Copenhagen, though his likely replacement, Michael Santos, has played over 1,600 minutes this season. Perhaps most importantly for our central defenders, Santos is a significantly smaller physical presence, as at just 5’9”, he is about 4 inches shorter and 20+ pounds lighter. Celtic should have a significant positional advantage at striker.
Summary
Edouard, and to a lesser degree Griffiths, position Celtic to be very competitive at the striker position relative to the remaining Europa League teams. However, much of Edouard’s output is still limited to the dreaded “p” word – potential. Celtic need Edouard to perform at a European level, as Copenhagen are likely to make scoring a real challenge.