Did Jonny Be Good?
Jonny Hayes left Celtic Park for the last time at the end of May to curtail a 3-year career that saw him part of winning every trophy his side entered domestically with the exception (yet) of the current years’ Scottish Cup.
8 out of 8 is some record. He made 67 appearances, 2976 minutes, completed 90m 14 times and scored 2 goals.
The Window of Gloom
Spirits were high in the Summer of 2017. Rodgers was a year in with an Invincible Treble behind him. Now was the time to strengthen to improve competitiveness in Europe whilst maintaining the grip domestically.
It was to the latter aim that Hayes was signed for £1.3m from Aberdeen. The Dons had for some time been Celtic’s closest rivals domestically. Taking their 24-assist creative talisman off them would further weaken those nearest to Celtic. Hayes had had a fantastic 16/17 season for the Dons culminating in a Cup Final goal that gave them the lead against Celtic at Hampden.
He arrived as one of six first team challengers for a combined £8.5m. The bulk of that was well spent on the talented Ntcham. The rest however, saw Benyu, Compper, Mazis, Morgan and Hendry (in the winter) arrive none of whom will be remembered fondly.
Compared to his peers, Hayes can already be seen as a qualified success!
The Hayes Journey
When he joined, Celtic had Sinclair, Forrest and the on-loan Roberts as wide starters. Roberts did not re-join until the very end of the summer window. So, as Celtic kicked off European Qualifiers in June, Hayes was very much part of the first team picture.
Hayes was part of the first seven matches in his Celtic career, starting three. Illness prevented him appearing at home to Astana and after that he remained a part of the squad appearing in thirteen of the next thirty games and often an unused sub. Perhaps tellingly, he did not appear at all in Champions League games and it may be that Rogers quickly lost trust in him to perform at that rarefied level.
His first season at Celtic ended in late December with a broken tibia that saw him side-lined for the remainder of treble two.
The 2018/19 season started with more injury, this time to the thigh, meaning he missed the first three European qualifier ties. 60-minute outings on either wing against Heart of Midlothian and Livingston, and 81 minutes at Motherwell was the only meaningful action for the remainder of 2018. He was often named on the bench but again did not take part in the European group matches.
Johnston had emerged and with Forrest, Sinclair and Morgan, Hayes found opportunities limited. From December until the end of the season, Tierney’s hip injury made his appearances sporadic as he was nursed along rather than having the operation that would deal with his underlying issues. It was at this point in his Celtic career that Hayes became repurposed as a left back. Izaguirre had been brought back but fell to an ankle injury, so Hayes had an opening.
He made fourteen appearances from January on, including 89 minutes in the Cup Final Triple Treble winning 2-1 victory over Heart of Midlothian. This would surely be his Celtic career highlight.
The return of Lennon was potentially a boost for Hayes. A small, busy, hard working player much in the manager’s mould. Effort and work rate overcoming technical deficiencies. A tendency to keep the game simple. Haye’s modus operandi – speed up the wing and bang it in the box. Perfect as well for Lennon’s more direct attacking vision whereas under Rodger’s Hayes tendency to lose the ball was at odds with the possession-at-all-costs schematic.
And so it proved as Hayes was involved in forty three matches (although seventeen as an unused sub) and was injured for seven. This means he was out the first team squad for only three matches out of fifty-three under Lennon. Right wing, left midfield, left back, Hayes was a filler-in. A squad player to bring something different and fill in where there are injuries.
On only three occasions in his Celtic career did Hayes complete 90 minutes in consecutive matches but two of those were in this last season. One occasion saw him stationed at left midfield for the conquering of Rome when beating Lazio. Possibly his second-best Celtic moment after the Cup Final. A derby clincher at Ibrox is probably up there too.
It is possible Lennon wanted to keep his busy filler-iner but the post COVID-19 realities may mean a tightening of the squad to not carry experienced campaigners for those roles. At 32, he will likely be a starter at another top 6 SPFL side.
Was Jonny Good?
Hayes was a late bloomer after an early career in English and Scottish lower leagues. At 28 he became highly productive at Aberdeen with 17 goals and 36 assists in his last two seasons with the Dons.
With 2 goals and 7 assists across his 67 appearances, he has been unable to recapture that productivity at Celtic. Lack of consistency of selection and position no doubt contributing.
If you capture enough data you find the numbers that help to show the value of most players. Hayes in particular has some odd statistical vignettes:
Outside of Brown and Elyounoussi, the squad’s smallest player won more headers outright than any other midfielder / forward with 0.65 per 90m and 1.87 headers overall.
He was successful with more interceptions (1.46 per 90m) than all midfield/forwards outside Brown
He had the 4th best ball recovery rate (12.61 per 90m) in the squad
Only Frimpong and Johnstone complete more progressive runs than Hayes (5.7 per 90m)
No one gives the ball away more – 14.35 open play passes per 90m. Given the next highest is Taylor, that left side is looking profligate.
He blocks more crosses (0.57 per 90m) than anyone else in the squad)
His defensive error rate of 0.73 per 90m was the worst in the squad
No one lost the ball in his own defensive 3rd (2.2 per 90m) more than Hayes
His 5.37 failed crosses per 90m was again the highest in the squad
Averaging just over 42 minutes per appearance, no player in the squad had a lower per appearance average
A fascinating collection of the good and the bad. But there are nuggets of gold in there. He is defensively resilient albeit error prone. He is very direct and gets the team up the pitch at pace. Very much a Lennon type player.
What is unsaid is important though. Using Packing data, I’d expect his Dribble scores to be higher. I’d also expect to see good scores on xA (Expected Assists) and xSA (expected Secondary Assists) but no. The productivity numbers at Aberdeen for creativity and assists have not been replicated at Celtic albeit there has been variability of role. Aberdeen’s model of banging the ball into the box for a slew of tall centre backs or a large fellow up front has never been Celtic’s oeuvre.
There are sufficient data snippets to see that Hayes was rightly valued as a squad player at Celtic. Put him on the bench and he can cover at least four positions. His innate work rate, commitment, effort, pace and energy serve to revitalise the side at times. But his core productivity in terms of creativity (cross accuracy, secondary assists, chances created) has never been high enough for the demands of a club like Celtic expected to win most games.
Conclusion
Hayes has been part of a squad that won every trophy he was part of. He played a role in a golden era. Rodger’s quickly seemed to lose trust in him at the higher level and injury curtailed his early season. Under Lennon he was reborn as Jonny of all trades and was a regular on the bench and as a filler-in. In truth though, his style has never complimented Celtic’s attacking shapes.
Post COVID-19 such squad players at his age and salary may be deemed a luxury when a youth player (or several youth players) could plug those gaps.
I am sure he will have another few years of a successful career at a good level.
All the best Jonny and Hail Hail.