Defending Corners
I considered Celtic attacking corners performance in Cutting Corners. I concluded Celtic are performing slightly below average in goal threat. But what about defending corners?
I’ll follow the same approach as attacking corners.
2016/17
For 2016/17 I only have comprehensive data for SPFL matches. However, I have been able to piece together goals against and number of corners at least for the other games, which as I will show, is important.
In 2016/17 Celtic only conceded 1 goal from a corner in the SPFL, by Watson of St Johnstone. Indeed only 7 efforts made it on target from 16 chances created. 0.9% of corners against resulted in goals. This is well below our benchmark of 2-3% average. Celtic seemed to have mastered defending corners in the SPFL.
If we look at European and Cup matches, a different story emerges. As you might expect the number of corners conceded goes up significantly. And 5 goals were conceded:
Away in Astana
Away in Hapoel Be’er Sheva
2 Away in Barcelona (!!!! who concedes goals to Barcelona from corners !!!!)
1 in the Scottish Cup final vs Aberdeen
Both goals conceded in Barcelona were from the secondary phase, that is, not the initial cross but, in this case, on play resulting from short corners. But worryingly, Celtic conceded goals from corners in big games. Astana and Be’er Sheva were tense Champions League Qualifiers. Barcelona of course needs no introduction. And a Cup Final!
Overall 5% of corners in Cup competitions resulted in goals. Considerably above our bench mark average.
Across the whole season Celtic conceded from 2.8% of corners. Within tolerance of the average, but well above the 1.8% scored. On balance, Celtic scored below average and conceded towards the top of average.
2017/18
As we turn to 2017/18, Celtic are conceding more corners in the league but less in the Cups overall. 4 goals have been conceded so far:
Away at Hibernian (Ambrose!)
Away at Hamilton
Away at Bayern Munich
Away at Zenit
Still the propensity to concede from corners in the big games most noticeably away at Zenit allowing Ivanovic the crucial early goal.
Overall this season the opponent is creating a chance from 22% of corners, whilst Celtic create a chance from only 16%. 17% is the bench mark average. Celtic are underperforming in creating chances and underperforming in stopping chances, especially the latter.
Overall 2.48% of corners against have resulted in goals which is average. It does suggest, given the chances Celtic have allowed from corners, that the Hoops have been slightly fortunate.
If you recall 1.9% of Celtic corners resulting in goals. Again, underperformance in attacking corners, and average in conceding.
One bright note is that Celtic have not conceded a goal from a corner at home in the last two seasons.
Conclusion
Overall Celtic are conceding more goals from corners, proportionally, than they are scoring. But 2017/18 is slightly better than 2016/17. This is perhaps surprising given the juggling of formations this year. The propensity to concede from corners in big games is as prevalent this season. Celtic are underperforming both in scoring from, and stopping goals from, corners.
Football is a game of fine margins. Corners are low scoring opportunities. Sviatchenko’s club FC Midtjlland, through the application of detailed and focussed analysis and practise, hit 5.12% conversion from corners in 2014/15, resulting in 8 goals. They scored 23 out of 64 goals from set plays in winning their first Danish title. You can read more here. Had they hit the high average of 3% it would have been 6 goals from corners. This might not sound a huge gain but they won the league by only 4 points so what was an additional 2 goals over average worth?
Clearly teams can focus on this area and evidence significant margin gains. Especially in Europe, an extra goal or two could be the difference between Group stage football or not.
There remains room for improvement at both ends of the pitch for Celtic concerning corners.
This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.