Crisis Presents Opportunity for Youth
As Celtic start to move on experienced squad members like Hayes and Simunovic, and with the long term impacts of the current health crisis on Celtic’s finances unknown but likely detrimental, is the silver lining more opportunities for youth?
Opportunity from Threat
With future income streams uncertain, the transfer market has yet to take shape in the COVID-19 era. If indeed there is a fully functioning transfer market at all. Given Scottish clubs’ dependency on physical attendance and season ticket sales (the highest ratio in Europe), and given the historical paucity of media rights value, all Scottish clubs (well, no doubt with the exception of one) will potentially need to cut costs to survive. Celtic are probably the most financially robust of all Scottish teams but even they will need to address this conundrum to survive the current crisis.
Footballers are the most expensive part of a football operation. Whilst the cost of running and maintaining Celtic Park and all the trappings of running a football club amount to some £15m-£20m a year (think of that as the fixed cost of doing business), Celtic spend over double that on footballer and managerial salaries before transfer fees are considered.
Relative to the average first team wage of circa £20k a week, a youth team player will be on wages the majority of the population can relate to and probably a few hundred pounds a week at best.
Does the next season, given the environmental realities, present a unique opportunity for Celtic’s reserves to step up? And who would be the candidates to do so?
The 2019/20 Reserve Season
With typical foresight the Scottish football authorities failed to provide a meaningful competitive structure for young players in the 2019/20 season. There was no Reserve League. Celtic’s youngsters had to make do with:
The Colt’s side entering the Challenge Cup
The Glasgow Cup
The Reserve Cup
Friendlies
The Challenge Cup saw victory on penalties against Queens Park before falling by the same method to Falkirk in Round 2.
They had progressed to the final of the Reserve Cup and looked like progressing from their Group in the Glasgow Cup.
Overall, there were 13 competitive fixtures with 7 wins, 5 draws (2 went to penalties per above) and 1 defeat to Clyde in the Glasgow Cup.
A further 8 friendlies against the likes of Brentford, Chelsea, Huddersfield Town and Stenhousemuir fleshed out the work load to a 21-game run by the time a halt was called.
The Loan System
Every season Celtic send many players out on loan. In some cases, this is a foot in the exit door for those not in favour and for others it is a chance to toughen up in full time senior football to see if they develop. McGregor at Notts County is the most successful recent example of the latter scenario.
Last season’s loan arrangements were:
I have no idea how Perez has gone on at North Carolina as this is at least the second tier of US “soccer” and information is hard to come by. Similarly, with Gutman at Cincinnati. Gutman is 23 and never played professional full-time football. Both remain a bit of a mystery.
Celtic consistently bolster lower league Scottish teams with talent and indeed many will remain in the professional game if and when they leave the club at such sides. Doohan, a goalkeeper, held down a starting place for two seasons now at a competitive Ayr United side and given his age and position, this must be considered a successful loan.
Similarly, Deas at a struggling Alloa Athletic will have had plenty of defending to do but kept his place in a tough league.
Welsh, Church, Hazard, Afolabi, O’Connor and Savoury all managed to maintain 1st team involvement at lower league sides for the varying durations of their loans. If a player cannot break into a lower league side even as a teenager it is unlikely they will make it at Celtic. All will therefore take some encouragement from this.
Ralston and Henderson both completed loans at SPFL Premier sides. Ralston has had his share of 1st team action at Celtic and managed to play in 24 games for St Johnstone. He has, to an extent, proven himself a performer at this level therefore. Given his age a decision will need to be made on where his future lies.
Henderson is younger (20) and battling relegation at Ross County has nevertheless seen him appear in 9 games across the season. Not an unqualified success then and the clubs next steps with him will be interesting.
Benyu, Eboue and Hendry all, I suspect, fell into the category of “not needed so put in the shop window”. Benyu never established himself in the Swedish Allsvenskan. Hendry’s loan to Melbourne was a disaster as he suffered a cruciate knee injury after 2 games. Finally, Eboue’s short stint in Belgium was spectacularly successful for all, as despite only appearing in 4 games he won a £1.3m permanent deal (paid for by the Hagi money!).
The last loan model is the one followed by Aitchison in the mould of McGregor. He journeyed to the English fourth tier and the harsh school of League Two with Forest Green Rovers. Reports were largely positive on his contribution for a mid table side. A striker at Celtic, he was repurposed as a “10” and scored 6 goals in over 30 appearances. Celtic’s youngest ever goal scorer, given this successful spell, keep an eye on Aitchison.
As always with these arrangements there are good and bad stories to tell. But overall, I would say the younger Celts on loan largely did well to hold down places at lower league clubs and boost their competitiveness and experience.
The Remainers
A total of 38 players played in the 13 competitive matches Celtic had. This is a mixture of the 18-21-year olds, full time squad members getting some game or recovery time, and under 17s promoted for the experience.
Only three players appeared in all 13 competitive matches – Church, Okoflex and Burt. But and Karamoko Dembele top scored with 4 each. Okoflex led on assists with 6. Overall, Okoflex managed 12 scoring contributions in only 832 minutes – 0.97 per 90m. Dembele contributed at the same rate.
Mainstays of the reserve campaign, such as it was, were (over 400 minutes):
A Taste of Success
Finally let’s consider those who were given the rarefied privilege of starting in the first team. Given the manager has not changed, these are potentially the players that could feature more in 2020/21.
Ralston has been involved in 5 out of the 9IAR yet has only made 11 league appearances. He made 4 last season, the most by one of the reserves, and after holding down a starting role for St Johnstone for much of the season, Bauer leaving and Elhamed prone to injury, will he have a role to play in the coming season?
Long time “wonderkid” Dembele made 2 appearances totalling 23 minutes. He is still only 17 and hopefully will be one for the future but may get more minutes this season.
Robertson was given a debut in midfield away to Cluj which was quite a statement of trust. He also played all 90 minutes so here’s hoping there is more to come.
Welsh played 76 minutes at Hamilton Academical and acquitted himself well.
The aforementioned Ewan Henderson managed 1 minute in the home leg against FK Sarajevo.
A total of 383 minutes from the youngsters isn’t a lot but highlights the difficulty getting into a team like Celtic. Those small minutes are huge potentially for their careers.
Looking to the Future
That summary of the 2019/20 reserve team season serves to allow me to build on what I started with. It is perhaps unlikely that Celtic will stock up on squad players for the forthcoming season. They may well strengthen the starting XI but carrying hefty wages for occasional performers may not make sense in these troubled times.
Where does this present opportunity?
Goalkeeper
I’d hope Forster would be back but at the moment Celtic are down to two senior ‘keepers in Gordon and Bain. If Forster returns then it is likely Gordon will move on. Celtic need three ‘keepers in the first team squad. Look out for one of Doohan or Hazard to be the third choice this season.
Full Back
At right back Bauer is away and Elhamed is injury prone leaving the raw Frimpong, who may really be a winger. There is an opportunity for O’Connor whom Celtic purloined from Manchester United and is already capped at full level by the Republic of Ireland. Also, as mentioned above, what future for Ralston?
On the other side, Celtic are down to Bolingoli and Taylor. Neither looked the complete package, how could they replace Tierney? I have no idea whether Gutman has a long-term future at Celtic but from the reserves Church is highly rated and has played a lot in that position.
Centre back
Full backs may not be a priority if Celtic persist with 3-5-2. However, with Simunovic away, it leaves Jullien and Ajer if we accept Hendry has no Celtic prospects. Elhamed can cover if fit as can Bitton. This is an area of the team where a youngster could see some game time. Welsh was given the chance in one game last season and Church was repurposed from left back to centre back last season. Deas had a successful spell at Alloa Athletic. Real opportunity here.
Centre Midfield
This is a hugely competitive area of the first team with Brown, McGregor, Ntcham, Christie, Bitton, Rogic and Soro all available for up to four but maybe three spots.
Celtic have real talent in reserve and rather than replace Kouassi with a monied squad player, the likes of Henderson, Connell, Coffey and Robertson may see some limited game time.
Attack
Whether attacking wingers or strikers, Celtic are well served with four senior strikers but only two senior wingers – Forrest and the fragile Johnston. It remains to be seen if Shved has a future. Opportunity knocks then for the likes of Aitchison, Dembele, Okoflex and Afolabi to get game time especially if Bayo and Klimala fail to shine and Johnston keeps breaking down. Can Aitchison “do a McGregor” this season?
Conclusion
A hugely frustrating lack of competitive action for Celtic’s reserves had the silver lining of many successful (if short) loan arrangements. Celtic have targeted wastage in the English Premier system to snap up the likes of Afolabi, O’Connor and Frimpong in recent times. Frimpong provides the most up to date example to the reserves of what is possible.
It is highly possible that next season Celtic will not carry a 30+ senior professional squad due to financial uncertainty. A core of 20-25 maybe well be supplemented with 3-5 of the above who may see significant first team time compared to this year’s batch who managed less than 400 minutes first team action (Frimpong aside).
This could be the break out year for a number of talented youngsters.
ADDENDUM: Manny Perez has played 21 times for North Carolina and you can see an impressive array of stats here. They have him on their "roster" as a midfielder. Only completed 90m 4 times, started 12. I'm none the wiser.