Copenhagen: The Battle of Midfield
By James Dailey
As I have made clear in prior pieces, I believe Celtic could field one of the best midfields among the remaining Europa League teams. However, this piece will focus upon what “is” rather than what could be. I will compare our likely central midfield three versus a comparable sample from the other 15 teams in Celtic’s pot. As I’ve stated in prior pieces, these benchmarks are never perfect, as positional differences, playing styles, etc. make direct comparisons impossible. Our upcoming tie versus Copenhagen is a good example, as their primary formation has been a 4-4-2, which introduces roles that are somewhat different than our midfielders’. Here is a comparison of our likely three starters versus their likely four, all versus the benchmark I’ve created:
This data includes domestic league and all European games this season. There remains some uncertainty about how Copenhagen will setup, as they seem to have lost a starting striker to a transfer this week, as well as having a couple of prominent midfielders out injured. Zeca is almost a guarantee to play in a central defensive role comparable to Brown, but the other three have played across the four midfield roles at various times. Eighteen year old (not listed) Mohammed Daramy could be a wild card, as he’s played limited minutes this season but started in their only post-break league game last week.
Important Context
When comparing Celtic to Copenhagen, some important information relative to playing style in the SPFL versus the Danish Superliga is probably helpful. For example, the league averages for Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA- a proxy for pressing) and Challenge Intensity are 11.81 and 5.83 in the Superliga, versus 9.58 and 6.79 in the SPFL. This suggests that players, on average, have less time on the ball in the SPFL before they are engaged by an opposing player. Within the Superliga, Copenhagen rank first at 60.3% possession, 2nd in PPDA at 8.78 and 1st in Challenge Intensity at 6.8. This compares to Celtic ranking second in possession at 63.4%, and 3rd each with PPDA at 7.94 and Challenge Intensity at 6.79. So, given the context of each league, the data suggests that the teams are comparable.
One can obviously evaluate the data listed above, but I will highlight what stands out to me. Firstly, McGregor and Ntcham are legit offensive forces at this level. Hopefully any remaining skeptics within our support will further grasp how truly good of a player Callum McGregor is, as not only is he productive offensively, but does so in an efficient fashion (92% Pass Completion).
While our midfield should have a significant advantage in attack, my major concern about this matchup is the relative youth and athleticism in their midfield. Zeca is a good player, and the video I’ve watched suggests to me that his stats are indicative of his quality. His range of passing appears to be impressive and he gets around the pitch very well, which is reflected in the volume of Duels and Defensive Duels, as well as his % Won in each.
The Duel and Defensive Duel data for all their midfielders support the game video I’ve watched – they have pace and are athletic. This combination presents a potential challenge for Celtic, as if I were Copenhagen and scouted Celtic, I’d be using their midfield to press with intensity, look to turn the game into a midfield battle over 2nd balls, and whip early crosses into our box. Copenhagen have averaged 40.05 interceptions in their league games (vs 40.86 league average) this season, versus 37.55 for Celtic (42.17 league average).
This data could suggest Celtic will be in for a battle when trying to play through their midfield on the ground, and lumping balls forward in the air may play into their hands. Copenhagen has averaged 41.88 Aerial Duels per game versus 37.55 for Celtic, and this is in a league that averages just 40.86 versus 54.81 in the SPFL. Their midfielders have a height advantage overall, and are statistically superior in the air, while their centre backs are experienced veterans who are also adept in the air.
Conclusion
Celtic maintain a clear creative and attacking advantage in midfield, as both McGregor and Ntcham are well above the peer group average. At the same time, Copenhagen’s midfield is generally below average in attack.
However, the relative advantage swings in the opposite direction when it comes to defending, as each of Copenhagen’s midfielders compare favorably with the peer group and their Celtic counterparts. If Celtic can control the games and play through the midfield, then I am confident of a decisive victory in the tie. However, I see a legitimate risk of Copenhagen imposing a style of play which could be a leveler and make the tie far more uncomfortable than talent levels would suggest.