Consolidation of Ajer
This week Ajer completed another two appearances for Norway. He has 9 caps to add to the 37 age group appearances for his nation. An International regular, he has also cemented a centre back starting position at Celtic.
The towering Norwegian is only eight months older than the much-publicised prodigy Ödegaard. The young midfielder signed for Real Madrid aged just 16 and appeared in La Liga. He has been on loan since.
Ajer already has 165 senior appearances and has steadily increased his usage rate for Celtic since joining for the 16/17 season.
Is he improving?
2018/19 Appearances
19 SPFL appearances in 17/18 was increased to 23 in 18/19. Overall his appearance report card:
It must be said that since the Van Dijk / Denayer season of 14/15 (Deila’s first) the centre back positions have been a nightmare of injury and change. This season has been no different with Benkovic sometimes injured and Boyata enduring spells out in December, January and April (season ending).
Neither are now at the club and I have shown previously that the aforementioned pair were, marginally, the most effective central defenders at the club – see Defensive Checkpoint.
However, Ajer has stepped up to appear in 45 matches – the 6th most in the squad.
2018/19 Defensive Performance
Earlier last season I was very excited about Ajer’s initial contributions to the team. His Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR%) in April 2018 touched 81% matching the Van Dijk Gold Standard. By season end it had fallen to 79%. This illustrates how hard it is to maintain that standard.
You can read about it in Head Bhoy.
I have found DASR% to be a great overall indicator of defensive effectiveness as the results tend to match the eye test – i.e. what I see is confirmed by the numbers.
The Ajer Defensive Report Card.
I think the right adjective is “consolidated”.
DASR is down 2% but Possession Win % is up 2%.
There is no great improvement or regression on any of the key defensive actions save for Missed Tackles which was 0.19 per 90m in 17/18 but is 0.36 per 90m.
The fabled Van Dijk stat about never having been dribbled past is echoed in Ajer’s number of 0.1 per 90m. The point is central defenders are rarely dribbled past.
Otherwise, Ajer has posted very similar numbers to last season.
2018/19 Creativity
It may seem odd to mention creativity, but Ajer is renowned for his surging runs from the back. Also, Celtic expect their central defenders to try and break the initial press or initial lines of defence. So, Packing data is important.
Ajer has tried slightly more of his trademark dribbles from the back although this has resulted in a very slight decrease in Dribble Success.
From a passing perspective, Ajer continues to achieve a very conservative 95% Pass Completion rate. Which is what you expect from a central defender (unless they play for Heart of Midlothian or any side managed by Tony Pulis).
Slightly disappointingly his Pack Passing rate has fallen meaning he has completed fewer forward passes that take out opponents.
Summary
Ajer is a highly promising young centre back. Still learning the position having developed in Norway as a midfielder, he has consolidated his performance data and shown consistency after his break out season.
He is showing leadership qualities on the pitch, which is an unmeasurable attribute but worthy of note nonetheless. His importance to the team is increasing. If Celtic have to enter Champions League qualification with Ajer and Simunovic, few would be concerned.
We have to remember he is very young, especially for a centre half. To consolidate a place may seem faint praise but in a team the stature of Celtic it is a worthy achievement.
But cover for injury is needed, and with two young centre backs, a bit of experience to guide Ajer towards improvement would be prudent (and Simunovic).
Ajer is one of Celtic’s brightest prospects and here is hoping next season he kicks on and we see progression across his numbers.