Cohesion and Perception

I wrote recently about how the direct speed of the SPFL Premiership has risen markedly according to Opta. The finding was an indirect outcome of countering the “slow play” trope flung at Brendan Rodgers.

It seems the league is getting the ball forwards faster, as are Celtic, but relatively less so than the rest of the teams.

I wonder if the perception around the style of play this season is one of “cohesion” rather than speed.

How to measure cohesion?

Let’s try. The data points will vary in years reported based on what I collected at the time.

Passing

Using simple passes completed and accuracy.

Volumes of passes can infer team speed of play – the more passes completed the more quickly the team is moving the ball around relative to possession of course.

We see that under Ronny Deila there were less than 500 passes per 90 minutes and accuracy was also at its lowest in this sample.

Under Rodgers the first time the accuracy was tipping towards 89% as well as breaking 550 passes.

Neil Lennon took us back under 500 passes and accuracy fell steeply as he was more concerned with increasing directness and speed of attack.

What we saw under Ange Postecoglou was even more passes but with slightly less accuracy – down to 87% - an indicator of more risk being taken.

Under Rodgers this season the overall volume of passes is like Postecoglou’s first season, but the accuracy has declined.

I suggest this is due to more long balls (47 attempted in the league versus 42 last season).

Possession / Control

The level of possession increased dramatically under Rodgers before falling back under Lennon. Postecoglou seemed to achieve a healthy balance between control (possession) and attacking threat.

Rodgers this season sees his team with less possession overall, although not as all-consuming as his sides became in his initial three seasons.

Ball Progression and Chances Created

Let’s turn to what the team is doing with the possession.

The below plots the pack passing score with the number of chances created per 90 minutes.

As discussed before, the volume of pack passing is increasing season on season and Rodgers’ levels this season are well ahead of his initial stint and slightly below Postecoglou’s.

Neither can point to the volume of chances created by Lennon’s enjoyable 2019-20 side, nor even Rodgers's second season.

These are small differences – the volume of chances created varies little season by season at around 15 per game.

Opposition Box Threat

Here we compare the volume of touches of the ball in the opposition box and the number of passes into the danger zone central to the goal also in the box.

Here we can see how the apex of efficiency of “Angeball” was in the box where it counts. His two seasons saw a consistently high level of danger zone passes completed and last season a “record” number of touches in the opposition box – over 30 per game.

This season’s team is not far off the number of touches in the box and is ahead of Postecoglou’s first season. Danger zone passes are down, and this is primarily down to the quality of wing play.

Final Third Effectiveness

Finally, we’ll compare the overall attacking threat score with the volume of possessions lost in the final third without a positive result.

Postecoglou’s side achieved the highest attacking threat score whilst minimising final third losses – this is perhaps the best view to illustrate the balance he achieved between control and risk-taking.

Yet Rodgers's side this year are not far behind and indeed ahead of where Postecoglou’s side was in his first term.

Contrast Lennon’s two full seasons and how much less activity there was in the COVID-19 season without crowd interaction (apparently it was less scary for some players).

Summary

A hoary cliché in football is that when you change manager you go with someone who is the opposite of the guy you just hated on.

Also, there is the “Fergie effect” – no matter who replaced Alex Ferguson at Manchester United was doomed by comparison to fail.

To a small extent, we are seeing these things at play at Celtic. I believe Postecoglou last season in domestic football got closest to perfecting the balance between attacking risky football and control of the ball.

What I hope I have demonstrated here is that this is not a return to a ponderous version of “Rodgers-ball”. And whilst it is also true that the current side is not reaching the attacking fluidity and cohesion of the 2022-23 season, there is not much in it.

Since Rodgers’s first stint the direct speed of the team has increased and there is more emphasis on attacking directness over possession for its own sake. But there are kinks. The wing play has been erratic, and the midfield has suffered not having a settled pair alongside Callum McGregor.

Solve those two issues and attacking cohesion should edge closer to last season.