Celtic's Robocop

Canadian full back Alistair Johnston recently passed the 900-minute on the pitch for Celtic mark.

You all know what that means?

Yes. A definitive and never to be changed opinion can be formed about his performances.

Joke. 900 minutes is, in my experience, a point at which much of the truth about a players performance levels, value, strength and weaknesses are revealed. It is the start point for ongoing monitoring. It sets an initial benchmark if you will.

Please refer to a recent piece I did done for the Celtic Way on Alexandro Bernabei as he has also passed this threshold and, as a fellow full back, this acts as a useful companion.

I have an ever evolving framework for evaluating players depending on position. It is always slightly risky distilling the over 150 data points for each player down to a few but some are aggregated. Anyway, I am sure you will tell me it the data does not match the eye test!

Before we start just a note that the samples vary across the different data points covered here due to availability of data across different seasons.

Defending

This framework is one I use for centre backs predominantly. It is less accurate for full backs I’d say mainly because at Celtic, the wide defenders tend to be engaged in “defensive actions” e.g. duels much higher up the pitch and often in the opposition third.

For example, Kieran Tierney often profiled quite poorly when considering defensive action stats because so much of his time was spent attacking – so for example he would be tackled whilst dribbling towards the box and this would negatively impact his duel success rates. Of course, in this example he was not defending at all!

The solution to this is to be able to tag very event by location. If you have the time to do this, give me a call and I’ll set you to work!

Anyway:

Let’s start with a bang!

Johnston appears to be the most defensively sound full back since Mikael Lustig. Lustig profiled more like a centre back than a full back and Johnston, who, remember, plays as the right sided defender in a back three for Canada, very much resembles the iconic Swede.

At the other extreme – Jeremie Frimpong barely resembled a defender. Indeed, his data exposed what he is – a winger nominally placed at full back to allow deep penetrating runs at the opposition.

Back to Johnston. There isn’t one aspect of the aggregated data included here that stands out. Across aerial and ground duels, interceptions and so on, he is consistently strong and effective. It is his physical strength allied to a wiry, athletic frame and quick ground speed that makes him stand out.

Also remarkable is how ”safe” he is in his decision making.

Of recent full backs, he trends top as regards the number of times he loses the ball in his own defensive third. Also, I have not yet recorded a single defensive error in his performances. Admittedly this is subjective, but I apply the same mental logic to every player in every game.

The contrast with young Bernabei is rather stark.

My final view on defending plots the number of pressures put on the opposition with the number of possessions regained within the defensive third. An assessment of defensive aggression in other words.

You may be surprised at how low the current crop of full backs rate by this view (with Bernabei again being an outlier).

What this tells me is that this is a function of system and team style of individual performance, Bernabei excepted. Simply, the current Celtic have an overwhelming degree of ball control so by volume the number of regains and pressures will be lower – the opposition rarely has the ball.

Second is that despite the perception of Ange Postecoglou’s side, they do not press that aggressively in deep positions. Most of the aggressive pressing is done from the front.

This trend, that there is a homogeneity about the data by position under Postecoglou, highlights the strength of his team framework.

As regards the current full backs, this season I have been tracking turnovers and recoveries insofar as they result in either opponents or your teammates being wrong side of the ball – another dimension of packing.

Anthony Ralston has the lowest differential between recoveries and turnovers and Johnston is not far behind. This is very much Bernabei’s key weakness (and consider the possibility of a “toxic combination” left side of Bernabei, Carl Starfelt and Reo Hatate in this regard).

Note that Celtic players this season will have more turnovers than recoveries generally again because of having overwhelmingly more possession.

Back to Johnston. What we have here is a stellar defensive animal.

Ball Progression

Firstly, my best friend pack passing. The ability to pass the ball forwards through the opposition thus taking them out the game. A key pillar of the Postecoglou template.

Once again, I would highlight that the current crop of full backs are all at the top of this view. Does this mean they are the best forward passers we have had? No, it means that the team style dictates that players are constantly looking for aggressive forward passes. This is one measure whereby “Angeball” really comes to life comparing the numbers with previous full backs.

Prior to Postecoglou, Lustig would have been the standard for deep ball progression. Look how far below the current full backs his number is now!

But even having said that, Johnston’s pack pass score is a massive outlier amongst the Angeball crew. A score of 84 is what I’d expect from your most aggressively creative central midfielder.

I am fascinated to see if he can maintain that high level but this is a very exciting feature of Johnston’s play.

Next up ball progression via running with the ball and being on the end of forward passes.

Frimpong is clearly the gold standard here with elite levels of ball carrying at feet. One special skill doth a £10m + player make!

The current crop of full backs is not encouraged to go on rampaging runs like Frimpong and Tierney before him.

Rather they are expected to occupy half spaces in midfield or out wide and help overload the opposition defences. In this respect, Johnston is behind Taylor only in being able to get on the end of forward passes.

Once again Bernabei is an outlier versus the current crop and does provide the option of driving with the ball at the opponents.

Johnston, then, is an elite level amongst Celtic’s recent full backs in pack passing, and highly competent on getting on the end of forward passes as well.

Chance Creation

Moving further forward, the Celtic full backs work is never done.

Let’s first consider the extent to which they get the ball into the danger zone allied with general crossing ability.

One of Josip Juranovic’s strengths was the accuracy of his crossing into the box and Johnston’s cross success rate is around half of that.

Of the current full backs, only Taylor completes less passes into the danger zone (i.e. central position between the posts inside the box).

Although the actions we are talking about here are low volume, they tend to be the ones noticed by supporters being attacking actions. Hence, I suspect Johnston’s average showing here may drive some perceptions. Ralston, for example, has a better cross success rate but almost identical rate at providing danger zone passes.

In terms of pure chance creation considering volume (number of chances created) and quality (expected assist value of chances created), Johnston rates quite lowly in comparison to recent full backs – again more like Lustig than Tierney.

His one assist came in the last game at Tynecastle and this is definitely the part of his game we will want to see more of as he further beds in.

Attacking Threat

Finally, the overall attacking threat of the players can be assessed using my aggregated Attacking Threat metric which is a volume count, and expected goal build up which is the quality of play they are involved in the build-up for.

Johnston is more Laxalt or Toljan than Frimpong or even 21/22 Ralston. Contribution in the final third does not seem to be Johnston’s strength.

Summary

Johnston appears to be a defensive lynchpin like Lustig and has top, top end ball progression abilities. He is comparatively average in chance creation and overall attacking threat is relatively limited.

As a young player I am sure there is more to come but it strikes me this is more the profile for Celtic in Europe as he will make the team far more defensively strong. It is not as if the squad is not packed with other attacking talent to be relying on the right back.

As ever with Celtic and the markets they operate in, there are trade-offs. I’d argue Celtic needed a full back like Johnston more than a Frimpong type player.

His performances in coming into a flu-ridden side on debut at Ibrox, in the League Cup Final, and in the last game at Tynecastle show that this is a player with a hyper aggressive mentality but one always under control and under the opponent’s skin. He appears physically and mentally very strong as well as whip smart in interview.

After 90 energy sapping minutes traipsing up and down the heavy, cut up Hampden turf, the sight of him easily dispossessing Ryan Kent, swatting Borna Barisic aside, then releasing Sead Haksabanovic for a breakaway chance seems to epitomise his spirit, strength and tenacity.

In my (juvenile) mind I have the eponymous upright, slightly stiff but totally belligerent and unyielding cyber cop from the 1980’s cult classic Robocop – “You have 30 seconds to give me the ball”.

This looks like another smart and cohesive signing.