Celtic vs Hearts: Scottish Cup Final Preview
Celtic play Heart of Midlothian in the Scottish Cup Final and for the sixth time this season. With the full SPFL calendar completed, we can compare performances over the season.
SPFL Form
Celtic finished Champions for the 8th consecutive season whilst Hearts finished 6th.
Hearts finished 36 points behind Celtic, and indeed, thanks to the SPFL split format, finished 1 point “behind” the team in 7th position, St Johnstone!
They were the only team with a negative goal difference in the top 6 (-8) whilst the Hoops had the best goal difference (+57).
Celtic managed just over 2 goals per match whilst Hearts averaged 1.11.
This is despite having one of the lowest conversion rates in the league. Hearts were lower however, reflecting that injury has deprived them of Naismith for much of the season. And the totemic Ikpeazu has only managed 3 goals in 17 SPFL appearances.
So scoring is an issue for Hearts and unfortunately for them they are up against the best defence in the SPFL. Conceding 0.53 per game, Celtic give up the least shots, and the opposition only convert 8% of them.
Hearts not only dish out the most fouls in the league, over 14 per game, they are also the most fouled team! The Mark Hughes approach to football brings fouls both ways.
SPFL Form Rankings
If we look at how each team compares to the other SPFL sides.
Celtic can be expected to dominate possession, averaging 69% per game. Hearts, perhaps surprisingly, are third on 51%.
Despite taking the most shots and having the highest volume of shots on target, Celtic are not the top scorers. This can be explained by having the 9th ranked shot conversion rate. Hearts are even worse with the 11th ranked conversion rate.
Celtic make up for this by being ranked first in all the defensive measure. They allow the least shots and their opponents have the worst accuracy and conversion. This may be due to defender quality and the amount of pressure applied to the shooter, or the unpromising positions the shooter is forced to try from.
Hearts though are ranked 5th in goals against but only 9th in giving up shots on target. Their opponents are the 6th best in shot conversion and 7th for shots that hit the target – commensurate with their finishing position.
Whilst Celtic concede the equal least fouls, Hearts concede the most. Strangely, despite averaging 69% possession, Celtic are only awarded the 7th most fouls in their favour. Hearts get awarded more fouls than any other side!
Celtic vs Hearts – The Story So Far
11th August 2018 - Tynecastle: Heart of Midlothian 1, Celtic 0
The first encounter at Tynecastle saw Celtic with Simunovic and Hendry in central defence (the Champions League partnership!) and Kouassi and Brown in central midfield. Hearts went with a forward line of Ikpeazu, Lafferty and Naismith, none of whom may play on Saturday. Lee man marked McGregor, and he will be missing too. Also, the grass at Hampden will, I imagine, be a wee bit shorter. Beaton allowed the game to become a war as Hearts racked up 19 fouls and 5 yellow cards that were given. With Brown and Kouassi struggling to pass through, Lafferty’s volley won the match.
28th October 2018 – Murrayfield: Celtic 3, Heart of Midlothian 0
The second encounter, the League Cup Semi Final at Murrayfield, was characterised with a medium Hearts block in a tight 4-4-2. Kouassi and Ntcham were chosen in central midfield for Celtic. Not only did both go off but so did Naismith for Hearts. This led to McGregor anchoring the Celtic midfield and the emergence of Christie as an all-action number 8. By accident Celtic fell upon their optimal configuration. The second half was all one way as Christie, Forrest, Sinclair, Rogic and Edouard ran riot. McGregor conducted.
4th November 2018 – Celtic Park: Celtic 5, Heart of Midlothian 0
The third encounter saw Celtic take on the league leaders. The new shaped Celtic midfield was too full of pressing energy, passing and menace. Hearts were well beaten 5-0. A very defensive 4-4-1-1 saw Hearts cede territory and commit 1 foul in the first half. Words were said at half time and 13 were committed in the second but without Gordon making a meaningful save.
27th February 2019 – Tynecastle: Heart of Midlothian 1, Celtic 2
The fourth meeting was Lennon’s first after Rodger’s midnight flit. Hearts tried to make the game a mess, with as little structure as possible. They had conceded 10 fouls in the opening 32 minutes and were playing for set plays with long passes. On 44m Brandon, who in the most recent game tried to “put one on” every Celtic player he came across, was red-carded on 44 mins for smashing Toljan upside the head. Every Celtic played was fouled in that first half. Once Hearts forced an equalizer from a penalty, they retreated into a deep 4-4-1. A poor Celtic performance against 10 was dramatically redeemed with a late volley from Edouard after Boyata caused confusion and a high cross was put into the box on 92 mins.
19th May 2019 – Celtic Park: Celtic 2, Heart of Midlothian 1
The final encounter last weekend saw 9 changes by Hearts and 7 by the Champions. It would be very difficult to draw any tactical insights from this. Indeed, Hearts passed the ball around quite pleasingly in the first half.
For Hampden it will be a defensively tight and compact Hearts side. Lacking much pace, they will sit deep. Expect a lot of physicality and breaking up of the game. Celtic need to press them high with energy to force mistakes from the much larger but slower side.
Celtic vs Hearts by Numbers
In the matches so far, here are the key metrics as averages over five ties.
Celtic average more shots on target per game than Hearts do shots against the Champions. With 1/3 of possession, Hearts will have to be highly efficient to make the most of their chances – they average creating 5 per 90m.
With Naismith injured and Ikpeazu struggling, increasing their poor conversion rate of 8% could be Heart’s greatest conundrum.
For the Champions, if they hit their averages of creating 16 chances and having nearly 20 shots, an xG of 2.371 suggests victory given Hearts would then need to score 3 off a xG of 0.724.
But, of course, real life isn’t like that!