Celtic Speed Towards A Future Without Brown

The emergence of McGregor and Christie at the heart of midfield has undoubtedly reenergised Celtic. To the eye they play quicker and with more forward thrust. This has largely come about through serendipity. The injuries to captain Brown and others forced this arrangement. We may have a great manager but do we also have a lucky one?

A common comment I see in reaction to my posts is that Brown “slows the game down”. Also, that McGregor moves the ball forward with more purpose. I understand this intuitively but will always consider how the data can asses such a phenomenon. I showed in Brown and McGregor: The Great Debate how McGregor plays more risky forward passes. The number 6 role at Celtic is key in setting overall tempo, but how has the team performed overall with and without Brown in that crucial role?

For the purposes of this analysis I have compared team level performance with and without Brown in the starting XI. Brown has started 19 matches (the first 18 of the season plus the 1-1 draw with Motherwell) and not started 12 (I have not yet captured data for the Kilmarnock 5-1 game).

At a very basic level the team completes far less passes without Brown in the team – nearly 100 less. Celtic complete an average of 544 open play passes with Brown and 448 without. Now I have previously argued that the increased passing rate under Rodgers compared to Deila could be because Celtic move the ball quicker hence log more passes. I can’t have it both ways and now suggest a lower pass completion rate means the same thing, So, it is ambiguous. Don’t worry, I have other data!

Celtic pass the ball less accurately without their captain, by 3%. Which doesn’t feel like a good thing but the hypothesis is that there is now more risk in the Hoops game. And we can measure this with reference to Packing. Those are passes that are forward and take out opponents – therefore riskier as they are breaking the opposition defensive lines. With Brown in the team Celtic average 48 Pack Passes per 90m but this rises to 55 without him. Given the reduction in overall pass volume without Brown, the percentage of passes that take out opponents goes up from 8% of all passes to 12% Pack Passes without him.

Possession under Brown’s direction is 68% compared to 60% without. There may be such a thing as too much possession, or possession for its own sake.

The evidence above suggests without the captain the team does indeed get the ball forward more quickly without regard to possession above all.

Surely this will result in more shots? Well, only slightly. Total Shots has gone up from 16.53 to 17.58 without the captain. But as you know shot quality is as important as just volume of shots.

The contrast is, frankly, stark. Celtic are scoring 0.5 goals per game more and this is no fluke. Their xG value has gone up by almost precisely the same value. The starkness is exacerbated by the inevitable correction to Celtic’s conversion rates. Celtic are now outperforming their xG by 0.1 goal per 90m in contrast to the start of the season. Indeed, Celtic have now increased their shot conversion rate as follows:

Now there are probably many factors that are contributing to this and this article is NOT intended as a Brown bashing exercise. But the fact remains that without the leader, the team is dramatically improving chance conversion rates.

If we turn to the quality of the chances created, the Expected Assists value allows us to do this. Again, as per shots, the actual volume of chances created has little changed. There is a modest uplift in chances created without Brown in the team from 14.42 to 14.58. But assessing the quality of chances sees that xA is up from 1.71 to 2.14 per 90m. In short: Celtic are creating better quality chances despite not creating a larger volume of chances.

Celtic’s average quality of chance without Brown increases as follows:

The quality of each shot has gone up significantly without Brown – from 0.122 to 0.142 xG per shot. And this is without measuring the Kilmarnock game.

This analysis focussing on attacking output with and without our captain. The amount of possession decreases but the volume and % of higher risk passes increases. Furthermore, despite their being minimal increases in both shots and chances created, the quality of chances has increased significantly. Consequently, conversion and actual goals scored are markedly up without the talismanic Brown.

Look, this is not an exercise in criticising a player that will go down as a legend for this club, and likely a legacy of being their second most feted captain ever.

But time marches on and teams evolve. Celtic have undergone a dramatic recalibration in central midfield with the emergence of a McGregor-Christie access. PARTLY (there will be other factors) this seems to have coincided with a dramatic upturn in attacking output.

I have not considered defensive performance (but see the aforementioned article showing how McGregor has adapted his game personally). It is a small sample. The 5-1 rout of Kilmarnock is not factored in.

I can’t measure passing or player movement speed. But the circumstantial evidence all points to a more potent Celtic team less focussed on possession above all, and forcing the ball forward quicker with a resulting uptick in chance quality.

And it looks like a significant changing of the guard is happening before our eyes in this key central midfield position. Remarkable.

None of this detracts from a wonderful player’s legacy.