Celtic Player Of The Year: Creativity
Celtic Player of the Year season is upon us. I've looked at defending in Celtic POTY: Defending. Now to consider Creativity.
To assist (geddit?) in your selection, here are key creative performances from the season so far.
Assists
By volume, there are clear leaders in the Assist League:
Forrest has an incredible 19 assists so far this season. This is 6 ahead of nearest challenger McGregor on 13, with Edouard a further 1 back. The much maligned Lustig is the other to get near double figures.
If we consider Assists per 90m the story is thus:
Forrest again leads the way but only by 0.06 per 90m over Edouard. McGregor’s rate of 0.26 reflects the large number of minutes he has played.
Christie and Burke both have 0.3 assist per 90m or better by this method.
Expected Assists
A lot going on in the following chart but simply it plots assists and expected assists and the difference between the two is the red line.
The further to the left you are the more “unlucky” you may have been as the number of assists is below that expected. Griffiths in particular could expected an assist rate of 0.36 per 90m compared to an actual of 0.09 per 90m.
Christie has the highest xA rate of 0.445 per 90m but is only achieving 0.3 per 90m.
At the other end of the scale are those for whom the bounce has perhaps being going in their favour. Forrest has the highest assist rate of 0.41 but by xA is expected to have 0.319 per 90m. Edouard is over performing his xA by 0.101 per 90m.
Chances Created
McGregor leads the way with 127 chances created over the season. This is 32 more than the next highest, Forrest on 95. Further back is Christie on 71 and Tierney 66.
In terms of chances created per 90m however:
Griffiths, missing for much of the season, creates 3.59 chances per 90m, the only player over 3. Christie is second on 2.66 and McGregor, miles ahead by volume, averages 2.49 per 90m.
One the understated reasons Griffiths is missed, and by way of explaining this, is that of the 41 chances Griffiths has created, 25 have been from set pieces (corners and free kicks). Only 16 have been created from open play. But as we all know Celtic have struggled to score from set plays this season and Griffiths being absent is one reason. McGregor has created 28 chances from set pieces in the equivalent of over 50 matches.
Once again Christie shows up well by this method.
If we consider only chances created from open play, the top 10 is as follows:
Christie leads the way narrowly from Burke. Forrest is 4th on the chances from open play per 90m method. Note how close Izaguirre is to Tierney! Griffiths just makes the top 10 from open play.
Secondary Assists
A new concept this season is measuring the passer before the person assisting the shot. This is recognising the pass that establishes the foundation for the chance (loosely). You could theoretically count every pass as a potential assist of course. But this is an attempt to be practical rather than academic.
With McGregor and Ntcham leading this category it highlights the value of the deeper sitting passers in establishing the play. Forrest again scores well highlighting the maturing in his game beyond a simple fast direct winger.
Izaguirre has not played much this season but is there or there abouts by most of these measures.
Pack Passes
We have considered those providing direct assists, those creating chances missed or otherwise and then those establishing the creative pass. Finally, we consider those whose passes take out the opponents and therefore remove defensive opponents from the play.
A pack pass is a forward pass that removes at least one opponent from the move – i.e. there is at least one less opponent between the ball and the goal on successful completion of the pass.
We score the cumulative effect of pack passes with a derived total score called Impect. This score reflects what type of opponents you have taken out the game – defenders score higher than midfielders for example.
Ntcham, as I have pointed out many times, is the undisputed Packing King since Armstrong left. He averages 9.1 pack passes per 90m and his Impect per 90m of 42.96 is the only one over 40.
Izaguirre again surprises in 2nd place and augurs well for the run in with Tierney likely injured.
McGregor is not so surprisingly up in third.
Lustig, who again I keep banging on about as the best passer from deep, is in 4th.
The ability to remove opponents from the game is even more crucial when playing against deep and low blocked defences as they rely on space denial to stop chances.
Summary
There can be no arguing with Forrest and his headline grabbing 19 assists. That is unlikely to be matched in many top leagues in the world.
But I hope this data allows you to consider the more subtle creative talents underpinning the final delivery for the goal. Not all chance creation passes get rewarded and much good work is required to establish the possibility of the chance. This is where Ntcham, McGregor and Christie all excel.