Celtic Due Shot Conversion Uplift
Using shot data to compare and contrast Celtic and The Rangers seasons’ so far and what it might mean for the upcoming Glasgow Derby.
Firstly, shot data for The Rangers has been gleaned from the UEFA statistics and the BBC site. Celtic data is all my own.
Result Success
Both clubs have made it to the Europa League Group Stages through four qualifying rounds and have therefore played 12 matches. The Rangers are undefeated despite having four players sent off so far. Celtic have lost two matches.
Overall, comparing match success percentage (3 points for win, 1 for a draw) Celtic have 67% success rate so far and The Rangers 67%.
Historical Shot Data
Before showing current seasons data let me set expectations by reporting to you the last two seasons’ data under Rodgers.
To once again highlight the small margins between exhilarating attacking football (the 16/17 treble) versus more functional fare (the 17/18 treble) just look at the shot conversion data.
Celtic in 17/18 converted 3% less from all shots and 5% less from shots on target. Enough to reduce the number of goals by 24 and increase the perception of not firing on all cylinders.
Celtic managed to have 8 more shots in 17/18 but did play 2 additional matches.
And here are the same shooting stats for the opposition.
Celtic conceded a similar number of goals over the two treble seasons – not exactly parsimonious but probably consistent with Rodger’s teams.
They have let more shots on goal last season and the opposition were 2% more accurate with them. However, shot conversion rates by the opposition are identical over the last 120 matches in those seasons.
2018/19 Shot Data
And so, to this season. Here is the Celtic data so far over 12 matches.
Celtic are maintaining ball domination with 67%.
As regards shots, the Hoops are getting more on target – 40% being 4% better than last season.
But Shot Conversion has dipped by 1% and from on target shots by 6% since last season and a massive 11% since the 16/17 season. Celtic’s On Target Conversion is now below the average from their opponents (generally other Scottish teams with inferior strikers) by 3%.
Either the quality of Celtic’s shooting is lower but more likely given the trends over the last three seasons, they are perhaps due an uplift closer to the mean.
But what of Sunday’s opponents? The new-manager-bounce from Gerrard plus 15 new player additions has translated to success on the pitch – unbeaten and Europa League football.
I only have possession stats for domestic games.
Here is The Rangers shot data this season.
The Rangers overall Shot Conversion rate is 3% better than Celtic’s and they are managing an impressive 47% Shot Accuracy – 7% better than Celtic.
Their On Target Conversion rate of 27% is consistent with Celtic’s 26% and slightly below that of Celtic’s typical opponents 29%.
As regards the Light Blues’ opponents:
Their opponents so far have achieved a pitiful All Shot Conversion rate of 6% and only 16% of On Target shots have gone in. This seems incredibly low. Excellent goalkeeping / deep defence or bad finishing / bad luck for the opposition?
Interestingly, despite being unbeaten in 12 matches, The Rangers have managed only 2 more shots that their opponents but scored 10 goals more. I don’t have xG data for those matches, otherwise I’d obviously share that with you!
Conclusion
The above data may have no bearing on Sunday’s match and is not predictive. But based on collecting this data for 5 seasons, in terms of likely future trends I’d suggest:
Celtic will dominate possession (duh);
Celtic’s are due to improve their On Target Shot Conversion significantly (providing no more strikers are sold); and
The Rangers are due to see their opponents be more ruthless in front of goal – Conversion Rates are surely unsustainably low against.
Who knows what will happen in a one-off game but Celtic supporters are due better shot conversion and The Rangers should expect opponents to be less profligate than they have been hitherto this season.
0-0 then.