Celtic Bench Press Hibernian Into Submission
A tired Celtic side were allowed to rest with the ball for 45 minutes against a strangely subdued Hibernian. After the officials made it interesting for the neutrals, Hibernian rallied, but Celtic’s bench strength saw them into a consecutive League Cup Final. For unfamiliar terms and measurements, the Glossary is your helpful friend.
Passively Aggressive
A Celtic side that had landed back home at 04:00 on Thursday morning from the Müllering in Munich, made two changes with Bitton and McGregor replacing Gamboa and Ntcham. Nevertheless, the Champions adopted a languid demeanour from the off, passing the ball around at sedate pace. Hibernian, like Dundee subsequently, had implemented an aggressive press at Celtic Park in the 2-2 League game. With Stokes, McGeouch and Boyle pushed high, the midfield behind man marked their Celtic counterparts. This proved highly effective and the details behind that can be read here Celtic On the Brink, Lennon Blinks. Hibernian were content to watch Celtic warily on this occasion, rarely pressing high. This was a surprising approach against a team in the middle of a demanding schedule, and with minimal preparation time. Pressing and harrying a clearly tired team would surely have been more productive? Celtic had to do very little work to end the half 2-0 up, and the game was close to being over.
Between the goals, Hibernian had one long range Stokes free kick on target to show for their efforts. And that was it.
It Ain’t Half Honest Mistakes, Mum
Clancy and Connor – here to entertain you!
The most supine of semi-final efforts was partly rescued by the introduction of Boyle and Whittaker at half time. Both had been effective performers in the League, and added pace and urgency here, having surprisingly been left on the bench. The team shape and approach did not change markedly, however, but at least the urgency levels increased. A chance for Slivka with a header, and a couple of dangerous cross balls at least got the Edinburgh fans roused. And then in stepped Clancy and Connor. Not a 50s vaudeville act, but the upper echelons of Scottish officiating.
Every referee interviewed, and every one I’ve ever spoken to, are unanimous on one thing. If you are not sure, don’t give it. Especially in a big game. With Clancy clearly unsighted, and the doubt caused by the ball direction, there should have been sufficient uncertainty in the minds of the officials. After Dembele quickly restored a 3-2 lead, the Hibees had their best spell of possession between the 68th and 77th minutes. They got through Celtic’s lines on a number of occasions without managing to create any shooting situations. As they tired into the 80th minute, and Celtic’s substitutes Dembele, Rogic and Forrest settled into the game, Hibernian were reduced to hopeful, low probability long shots – their last 3 efforts being of the speculative variety. Dembele’s fast break 4th ended their interest.
Crumbs of Comfort
Lennon may reflect again on what might have been. Leaving Boyle and Whittaker on the bench deprived the side of drive. Whittaker in particular had a highly effective 45 minutes, creating 3 chances as well as an excellent assist. Hibernian passed the ball 69 times more than any other opponent in Scotland against Celtic this season (320). And they were accurate too, 84% of all passes being completed. The team Possession Effectiveness Index (PEI%) was 79%, 9% more than any Scottish opposition has managed. With McGeouch in particular having a fine game, they completed more Pack Passes than any Scottish opponent. Whittaker’s ability to get through the Celtic lines was particularly impressive given he only played 45 minutes.
Stokes was a willing runner and Hibernian had no problem connecting with him. The problem was then what happened. Stokes is not a lone striker as Celtic supporters well know.
Despite receiving the ball so many times in promising positions, he had 5 shots, but only one on target other than the penalty. That was a highly improbable free kick effort. He did create 3 chances, with a combined Expected Assist (xA) of 0.145. Stokes possesses neither the pace nor strength to play this role and is more effective deeper where his creativity (or erratic decision making – it’s a fine line) is better utilised. McGinn and McGeouch struggled to get as close to him as at Celtic Park, and Barker, although extremely fast, didn’t offer much threat when on the ball. Hibernian did create shooting chances – they have created 25 chances in 2 games against Celtic – the other 10 games have seen 43 chances against the Champions. Total Expected Assists (xA) was 1.485, slightly less than in the 2-2 game. But ultimately, they committed defensive errors on the only occasions they were under pressure in the first half, and 0-2 was lot to recover from for a Celtic side with several gears in reserve. As mentioned McGeouch was particularly effective, behind only Armstrong in overall Impect score.
Game Management
Despite hitting just 2 shots on target, and 8 incursions into the Hibernian box, Celtic took their chances to be 2 up at the break. They dominated possession in a rather laboured style with Bitton, Boyata, and Brown accounting for 224 out of 515 open play passes completed (43%).
Celtic also shaded it in terms of xG and chances created. 21 in box possessions is below the average of 27, but creating 4 Big Chances is a season high. Maximum rewards for minimum effort. It is the 6th time in 12 domestic matches Celtic have scored at least 4, taking them to over 50 for the season (52).
Not all aspects of the attack were firing. Roberts had arguably his least effective game. He did not complete a successful dribble, connecting only 13 of 21 passes, and did not register a chance created. His one goal effort was a very low probability affair following a corner, from distance. His Total Impect of 13 was equalled by replacement Forrest but was the lowest in the team.
Although Hibernian completed a lot of passes (320) and 19 Celtic defenders were “packed”, a season high, Celtic kept Hibernian at arm’s length. Whilst Celtic managed 12 shots in the opposition box, the Hibees managed just 5. Unlike the other semi-final, it was a “nice” game – only 19 aerial challenges were contested, a season low. This suited a jaded Celtic just fine.
The Notables
Celtic’s squad depth ultimately kept the tie out of reach for Hibernian. Rogic came on to play the pass of the match to set Dembele away 1 on 1 with Laidlaw, and set up the 4th goal. Dembele had a remarkable 29 minutes. His 2nd goal followed a corner that he cleared – a particular strength of the young Frenchman. He had the joint highest Celtic Attacking Threat (CAT) score of 11 with Sinclair despite his playing time.
Armstrong should be noted as he dominated the first half and led the Impect scores at the end despite only playing 73 minutes. He faded badly in the second half and seemed hampered by jarring his knee. McGregor did not pass the ball away once in the first half, completing all 32 passes. He ended up with 97% pass success. He would have been a Bhoy of the Match contender but for lack of goal threat. He did create 2 chances. Boyata was impressive despite the drama of the phantom penalty. The danger had started, however, by him losing control of the ball in central midfield allowing a fast break. So, I wanted to recognise that in a high profile game, Bitton was particularly solid in defence. Having criticised his use in the centre back position, he deserves credit for that.
My Bhoy of the Match was Brown. He got stronger and more influential as the game went on, and as the danger to Celtic’s lead increased. With 5 tackles won outright in the second half alone, and 7 won overall, he provided the stability Celtic needed to maintain control despite the Hibernian rally.
