Can We Fix It? Blimin' Right , Mate
Step forward ma brickie!
Juranovic became the latest victim of the current craze for hamstring strains in the Cup Semi Final at Hampden. (Is anyone monitoring these things?).
It is doubtful he will be available for any of the remaining league matches.
The pretendy award (concept borrowed from another club – credit where it is due) of “Best Value Signing of the Season” has many candidates. An experienced international from Croatia who is 26 for around £2.6m is certainly up there.
He has eventually displaced the resurgent Ralston who has flourished under Postecoglou.
But should we be concerned for the run in by his absence?
Defensive Strength
Let’s take a look at the ol’ defensive metrics.
Ralston has the better Defensive Action Success Rate (60% to 52%) and both win the ball back 64% of the time from their defensive actions.
Ralston blocks more crosses (0.66 to 0.39) and they both fail to block 0.45 per 90m.
Ralston is involved in many more defensive actions per 90m than the Croat (12.53 to 8.33).
Perhaps not surprisingly then, Ralston is more error prone with 0.32 per 90m compared to 0.19.
Where Juranovic has an edge that can be described as a proxy for anticipation and basic ground speed is Recoveries (taking possession of loose balls). He has 13.9 compared to 11.3 by the Scot.
Ball Progression
I don’t have a metric for “being good at inverting” but Ball Progression should indicate the extent they get into positions to move the ball forwards.
Here we map Pack Passes (forward passes taking out opponents) with Ball Carries (running with the ball in the opposition half for at least 10 yards).
The proverbial “ba’ hair” between them by these metrics.
Juranovic has ever so slightly more Pack Passes and Ball Carries.
Ralston has the higher Packing Score from forward passes. He averages 53 per 90m to 50 from Juranovic.
If we consider the other aspect of Pack Passing, being available for the ball, then Juranovic has the edge. He receives 10.23 Pack Passes per 90m compared to 8.89 by Ralston.
The latter is a good proxy for movement off the ball and finding space – a key aspect of the inverted full back role.
Creativity
Another facet of full back play at Celtic (since Craig and Gemmell to be fair) is the ability to supplement the attack.
Here we look at Expected Assists per 90m (quality) and Chances Created (quantity).
Here we see some daylight. This has been the truly revelatory aspect of Ralston’s emergence. His final third creativity.
An xA of 0.23 would be excellent for a midfielder (in fact he is level with Hatate) never mind a full back.
Both have almost identical Secondary Assisting passer per 90m (1.16 and 1.19).
Ralston also completes more crosses (0.63 to 0.55) and misses with many more (4.41 to 2.61). Ralston loses the ball 4.01 per match in the final 3rd compared to 3.1 by Juranovic.
Despite perceptions (my own) it is actually Ralston who puts more “risk” into the final third between the pair.
Juranovic does deliver a tiny fraction more passes into the Danger Zone however – 0.87 to 0.82.
Ralston has far more touches in the opposition box – 2.74 to 1.48 per 90m.
Juranovic also has a role as primary penalty taker and has successfully scored five. He does not have a goal from open play whilst Ralston has five. However, if we remove penalties and look at Non Penalty xG then Juranovic has 0 goals from 0.11 xG per 90m whilst Ralston is overperforming with 0.13 goals per 90m whilst his NPxG is 0.09.
Those unexpected and vital goals tend to stick in the memory.
Overall Juranovic has an Expected Scoring Contribution of 0.36 and 0.23 actual, whilst for Ralston it is 0.32 xSC and 0.32 actual.
Summary
It is surprising (given reputations) how close the performance data is between Ralston and Juranovic.
I suspect the reason Juranovic is considered first pick is because of ground speed, anticipation, and superior off the ball movement. He also is slightly better in moving the ball through the lines.
Otherwise, Ralston is the more robust defender. He is also the more creative overall.
I think it is marvellous Ralston is trending so close to a player of Juranovic pedigree. Indeed, Ralston is not far behind Tavernier by most metrics across the league.
So, dust down the hod, don the high viz, the brickie is back!
Can he fix it? "That's a daft question, mate.".