"Angeball" Stymied by Ghosts of the Past
When Postecoglou was first appointed my main concern was that the “playing football to please my dad” schtick was code for the type of football Tommy Burns’ Celtic played that would ultimately crash against an expensive rock of defensive anti-football.
Prior to Celtic’s Derby defeat, I wrote the same in the Celtic Way and expressed the view I’d seen enough tactical nuance to waylay my concerns.
All this as a precursor to declaring that such was the extent of variance introduced by Postecoglou’s tactical stylings, it was impossible for me to call the game.
How wrong I was.
Coin Flip
A very well respected and talented Ibrox facing writer provided a game summary that concluded The Rangers were comfortable, 2nd gear, and it was an easy win preying on familiar Celtic failings.
We all carry our biases and as “Celtic” by Numbers I wear mine on my sleeve. But that was a little one-eyed even for me!
In reality this was an incredibly even match up as the basic game stats show:
Celtic dominated possession (63%) and had the great line breaking effectiveness (Packing score).
Despite The Rangers having many more shots (14 to 8), Celtic had the slightly higher xG and more possession in the opposition box.
There was very little in it overall.
Chance Comparison
The Rangers had 5 of 14 efforts inside the box. Of those 2 were headers (usually much lower xG), and 2 wide in the box. Only Morelos’ early volley over the bar was from a central position and a shot.
The Ibrox side had good game control from half time until scoring but only Goldson’s header over from a corner to show in terms of reasonable chances. Hart had to field three saves from long range or low power efforts but was otherwise untroubled.
The best save of the match was by McCrorie when Furuhashi was through on 68m. The young ‘keeper sprinted out quickly to block what was a good chance. He saved again from the same player on 85m and his equally fast reactions led to another dangerous moment being wasted by the same player on 87m.
Earlier, Edouard has missed the best chance of the match, heeling the ball wide from close range om 25m.
Celtic created by far the better chances, and The Rangers volume but most were poor probability chances. Average xG / shot was 0.13 – 0.07.
Familiar Failings #1?
It’s an easy (lazy?) narrative to say Celtic were undone with familiar failings. There is no doubt Celtic struggled to defend set plays last season without Jullien whom is aerially dominant. Even when he played the general lack of structure and organisation was evident. (Last season Celtic conceded 10 goals from corner situations off xG of 6.26).
This was the first goal conceded from a corner this term, and only the 12th chance resulting from an opposition corner.
Total xG from those 12 chances is 0.91 so Celtic are roughly “par” for corner chances conceded.
Either Ralston or more likely Welsh lost Helander and a good delivery was well met. It will be accentuated as it was a Derby.
Familiar Failings #2?
The slightly deflating aspect of the defeat wasn’t so much that Celtic lost (so much negative variance), or that the goal came from a corner, but that Celtic largely failed to upset the very well-rehearsed rhythm for the home side.
Even last season when Celtic were an organisational, abject mess, the Derby games were close. Granted, the initial 0-2 reverse was largely COVID and injury impacted for Celtic, and the 1-4 hammering was on a well beaten team most of whom are not even at the club once the season had long gone.
The competitive matches when they still mattered, were remarkably close.
This despite The Rangers being a very well organised side, comfortable in their shape and system, with easily replaceable parts in each position. “Soft investment” has allowed the purchase of a huge squad with virtually three players for each position. The long anticipated COVID variance to befall the camp forced the loss of captain Tavernier and 39-year-old McGregor in goal.
Huge credit to McCrorie who made the big saves in goal, and to Balogun who was not asked to replicate Tavernier’s attacking style. Rarely venturing over half way, he contained the left side of the Celtic attack very well and was their Man of the Match.
The rest of the team was as strong as it could be (arguments over Jack / Davis perhaps).
This is a team built for European competition. Comfortable defending in a very compact 4-3-3 shape, with the forward 3 playing narrow but relied upon to provide the threat. This places a lot of ground to cover by the middle three. Aribo and Kamara in particular are exceptional defensively, covering the space as much as winning the ball back to maintain that disciplined shape.
Remember, a very dominant version of this team had a xG of only 68 in the SPFL last season, massively outperformed (91 scored). They are not a “defensive” side as per the paradigms of the 1980’s but defensive solidity is their primary focus.
That Celtic’s supposedly helter-skelter “Angeball” made little impact on disrupting it was perhaps the main disappointment, therefore.
Variance
The extensive reworking of the squad has seen 12 in and 12 out over the summer. And the squad is nowhere near balanced, as I described in Managing Risk on the Postecoglou Rollercoaster (have a read, it’s reet good).
Juranovic became the latest new face to be pitched into a big game with nether a “how ye doing”. And at left back, a position very unfamiliar to him.
Edouard and Christie played despite knowing they were leaving in a matter of days. They are human and that must have an impact. The relative lack of contribution from both certainly suggests that – Edouard completed 7 passes, missed his big chance and created 0 assisting passes.
The bench was thin and many of the new signing continue to bed in. Starfelt (more on him separately) is struggling to adapt currently. Abada faded as he has done against the better teams.
All excuses really.
The reality is that the squad needs to strengthen, to gel with manager expectation, and grow into this season. As I (and many others) have said all along – Patience!
Summary
At Ibrox, retaining a huge squad and gambling on winning direct CL entry has been prioritised over other fiscal responsibilities. That in itself will produce some potentially uncomfortable variance for Celtic.
We cannot know how the latest batch of recruits (Scales, Jota, Juranovic, Giakoumakis, Carter-Vickers, McCarthy) will ultimately perform. There will have to be more comings and goings in January. It is a huge level of change to digest and organise.
There is a very well drilled and organised opponent to overcome with only a partial rebuild in play. The ghosts of Walter Smith (Wattenaccio), and of failing to overcome an equally pragmatic opponent last season, continue to haunt.