A Long Shot

Are the Ryan Christie long shot tropes fair, and what about goal-machine McGregor? A deep dive into Celtic's long shot history.

The hilarity of Callum McGregor being the joint top scorer as we approach December (WE’VE ONLY PLAYED 11 LEAGUE GAMES – AAAARGH) was heightened as James analysed his shooting prowess with basketball legend Steph Curry – you can access that here.

One of the commenters on Bsky (I strongly recommend you get on it – so much livelier than X) added the following concerning Ryan Christie and the topic of long shooting:

Indeed, on our latest pod, James reiterated the Christie trope about long-shot hope over experience.

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Long Shooting – Scotland vs Europe

Since my records began, which for xG on shots is the start of the 2016-17 season, Celtic has taken 2859 shots from outside the box, scoring 157 goals. A conversion rate of 5%.

The cumulative xG for those shots is 124 at an average of 0.043 per shot.

So, to James’ point in the podcast linked above, Celtic are overperforming in long shooting by 33 goals over xG. This may be a combination of better players therefore better techniques; the overall quality of the opposition ‘keeper play; luck; other.